UFC Tampa: Covington vs. Buckley
Preview & Predictions
The UFC is heading back to the friendly confines of south Florida for this weekend’s UFC Fight Night. Colby “Chaos” Covington returns to action as he looks to put an end to Joaquin Buckley’s winning streak. The prelims include several new faces and two female bouts whereas the main card is mostly composed of veterans. Catch all the action on ESPN+ beginning at 7:00 PM (ET).
Did you know? Colby Covington has been the headliner for his last seven fights. The streak began when he faced Robbie Lawler at UFC on ESPN 5 in 2019.
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— Prelim Card —
1. Josefine Knutsson vs. Piera Rodriguez
- Strawweight 155 lbs -
Prediction: Josefine “Thunder” Knutsson by Decision
Piera Rodriguez was on the way to victory in her last fight when she headbutted her opponent. The referee attempted to warn her but she repeatedly lowered her head into her grounded opponent. Though Rodriguez was in command of the fight, she displayed awful fighter IQ by getting disqualified. Rodriguez is the kind of fighter that finds ways to sabotage herself.
Josefine Knutsson is a skilled boxer that typically looks to outpoint the opposition. All but one of her wins are by decision. Knutsson lands 4.87 strikes per minute compared to 3.64 for Rodriguez. Knutsson also secures 2.0 takedowns per fight compared to 3.11 for Rodriguez. Rodriguez will spam takedown if she can’t find success at boxing range. Knutsson’s 57% takedown defense will be tested.
Combined, they have a 34% win-finish-rate. Regardless of who wins, it’s likely going the distance.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes to decision as a parlay piece, the fight ends in a split/majority decision as an individual wager and Knutsson on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
2. Davey Grant vs. Ramon Taveras
- Bantamweight 135 lbs -
Prediction: Davey “Dangerous” Grant by Decision
Ramon Taveras is 1-0 in the promotion after earning his contract via Contender Series in 2023. He lands 4.63 strikes per minute while absorbing 5.41 strikes per minute. Of his ten wins, five are by knockout, three by submission and he has two decisions. One noticeable flaw with Taveras is his striking defense. He is an easy target and has a tad too much confidence in his chin. As he steps up in competition, it can catch up to him.
Davey Grant is a 38 year old veteran that’s been with the company for more than a decade. He got his UFC break by making the finals in season 18 of TUF. He has impressive wins over Jonathan Martinez and Marlon Vera. Lately, Grant’s been on the short end of several close decisions. He lost a decision in his rematch with Marlon Vera and then lost split decisions to Adrian Yanez and Daniel Marcos. If Grant can put together the type of performances he had against Yanez and Vera, we like his chances of getting his hand raised.
Betting Strategy: The fight starts round two as a parlay piece, Grant on the moneyline as an individual wager and the fight ends in a split/majority decision as an individual wager.
3. Miranda Maverick vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth
- Flyweight 125 lbs -
Prediction: Miranda “Fear The” Maverick by Decision
Jamey-Lyn Horth is a Canadian newcomer that got a late start to her career. At 34 years of age, she knows it’s now or never if she wants to make a title run. Horth’s last two fights resulted in split decisions which is reflective of her slow pace. She lands 3.29 strikes per minute to go with one takedown per fifteen minutes. Horth has an unusually high win-finish-rate for a female flyweight. At the same time, most of those finishes were over fighters with losing records. Horth’s 69% takedown defense will be tested. Maverick averages 2.43 takedowns per fight.
Miranda Maverick is a former Invicta FC fighter that made her jump to the UFC in 2020. Her most recent defeats were to higher-end fighters like Erin Blanchfield and Jasmine Jasudavicius. Jasudavicius outperformed Maverick on the ground which is where Maverick excels. Maverick’s last five wins included two opponents that are no longer with the promotion. Fortunately for Maverick, Horth isn’t on the same level as Blanchfield or Jasudavicius so she should find some success.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes to decision as a parlay piece, the fight ends in a split/majority decision as an individual wager and Maverick on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
4. Miles Johns vs. Felipe Lima
- Featherweight 145 lbs -
Prediction: Felipe “Jungle Boy” Lima by Decision
Felipe Lima won his promotional debut as a replacement fighter back in June. After dropping his first pro fight in 2015, he ripped off his last thirteen in a row. At only twenty six years of age, Lima has a promising future. He’s a balanced fighter with solid Jiu Jitsu and quick hands. Lima has finishing skills and the stamina to go the distance.
Miles Johns enters this weekend on the heels of a three-fight winning streak. He picked up an uneventful decision win over Douglas de Andrade earlier this year. For what it’s worth, de Andrade is almost forty years of age. To be honest, Johns looked hesitant against de Andrade. It was almost like he was scared to get countered. Johns landed only 52 significant strikes against de Andrade which isn’t going to cut it against Lima. Unless Johns significantly increases his pace, we like Lima’s chances of getting his hand raised.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds as a parlay piece and Lima on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
5. Sean Woodson vs. Fernando Padilla
- Featherweight 145 lbs -
Prediction: Fernando "El Valiente" Padilla by Decision
Fernando Padilla is one of the most exciting new additions to the featherweight division. He has excellent size and power (88% win-finish-rate). Padilla fights with reckless abandon and has a natural thirst for violence. Sean Woodson prefers to circle away from danger and land pot-shots from distance. Woodson’s best attributes are his volume and length. Unlike most of Woodson’s opponents, Padilla is almost just as tall as he is. Additionally, Padilla is a submission threat and Woodson has been submitted before.
Woodson’s path to victory typically involves running around the cage for fifteen minutes en route to a close decision. On the other hand, Padilla will be looking for blood. If Padilla isn’t able to finish Woodson, we’re hopeful the judges will reward his forward pressure. One area Padilla needs to be mindful of his gassing himself out. He needs to keep enough in the tank to perform down the stretch.
Betting Strategy: Padilla on the moneyline as an individual wager.
6. Drakkar Klose vs. Joel Alvarez
- Lightweight 155 lbs -
Prediction: Joel “El Fenomeno” Alvarez by Round 2 Submission
Joel Alvarez is the better fighter in just about every category. He opened as a -325 odds favorite and is now listed at -500 odds on some sportsbooks. All twenty-one of his pro wins are inside the distance with seventeen of those by submission. Meanwhile, Drakkar Klose has a history of injuries, frequently gets rocked and hasn’t fought anyone of Alvarez’s caliber in years. By Klose’s own admission, he is more interested in staying active against the lower end of the division instead of facing ranked opponents. The UFC accommodated him over his last few fights but that isn’t the case with this match.
Alvarez will enjoy a significant height and reach advantage over Klose. Part of what makes Alvarez so dangerous on the mat is that he has such long limbs.
Betting Strategy: The fight doesn’t go to decision as a parlay piece, Alvarez inside the distance as a parlay piece.
7. Michael Johnson vs. Ottman Azaitar
- Lightweight 155 lbs -
Prediction: Ottman “Bulldozer” Azaitar by Round 1 TKO/KO
Michael Johnson is a respected old-timer that has excellent hand speed. He’s been consistently inconsistent over his career which is reflected in his 22-19 record. Like several fighters on this card, this could be a curtain call for Johnson. Three of his last four wins in the UFC were against fighters who are no longer with the promotion. Back in his heyday he defeated the likes of Dustin Poirier and Edson Barboza.
In January 2021, Ottman Azaitar (13-0 MMA) was cut from the UFC for violating COVID-19 health and safety protocols during UFC 257 fight week ahead of his fight with Matt Frevola, which was canceled. The UFC later decided to give the unbeaten Moroccan another chance.
Azaitar lands 5.73 strikes per minute compared to 4.27 for Johnson. Johnson has one finish in his last fourteen fights and his career win-finish-rate is 48%. Assuming this goes the full three rounds, you can see how Azaitar’s volume and youth could push him over the top. The two biggest concerns with Azaitar are his inactivity and durability. He’s been finished in both of his defeats and he’s only fought twice in the last five years.
Betting Strategy: The fight ends by TKO/KO as a parlay piece and Azaitar by inside the distance as an individual wager.
— Main Card —
8. Navajo Stirling vs. Tuco Tokkos
- Light Heavyweight 205 lbs -
Prediction: Tuco Tokkos by Round 2 TKO/KO
Navajo Stirling is one of the latest kickboxers to make the successful transition to MMA. He trains at City Kickboxing with some of the most well-known fighters in the world. Stirling arrived on the scene via the Contender Series this season. He is the largest betting favorite on the card. Though we like what we’ve seen from Stirling thus far, he shouldn’t be this large of a favorite. It appears that Tuco Tokkos agrees with us. Check out Tokkos’s comments from a recent interview:
“They’re glazing him. I don’t know why he’s a huge favorite. He’s got one legitimate knockout in his career. I know he trains with some great guys out there, but I think that level in America is just different. Like, we have NCAA wrestlers here. We have Olympic wrestlers coming into our gym, you know what I mean? He’s just training with, like, a smaller pool.”
An unproven prospect with only a few fights under their belt shouldn’t be this big of a betting favorite. In other words, this line is a TRAP! We’re taking a flier on Tokkos to pull off the biggest upset of the night.
Betting Strategy: The fight ends by knockout as a parlay piece, the fight does NOT go to decision as a parlay piece and Tokkos by knockout as an individual wager.
9. Adrian Yanez vs. Daniel Marcos
- Featherweight 135 lbs -
Prediction: Adrian Yanez by Decision
Daniel Marcos is a Peruvian prospect with an undefeated record. He’s 3-0 in the UFC with wins over John Castaneda, Davey Grant and Saimon Oliveira. Marcos does most of his damage at kickboxing range. He averages 5.94 strikes per minute to go with 0.74 knockdowns per three rounds. Marcos has an especially effective lower leg kick to go with his knockout power. Adrian Yanez has yet to register a takedown in the UFC and Marcos prefers a standing affair. Hence, that leaves us with two likely outcomes. Either a points battle or a knockout. Some fans might highlight that Yanez was TKO’d in two of his last three. It’s important to note that Rob Font and Jonathan Martinez were the perpetrators. Is Marcos on the same level as Font and Martinez? The answer is pretty obvious.
Win or lose, this match has all the makings for “Fight of the Night”. Keep in mind, they both went to a split decision against Davey Grant.
Betting Strategy: The fight starts round two as a parlay piece and the fight goes to split/majority decision as an individual wager.
10. Vitor Petrino vs. Dustin Jacoby
- Light Heavyweight 205 lbs -
Prediction: Vitor "Icão" Petrino by Decision
Dustin Jacoby is a former kickboxer that’s shared the stage with some of the best in the business. Jacoby does some of his best work in the second half of the fight where he can utilize his veteran savvy and endurance. In light of Vitor Petrino’s lack of experience and questionable cardio, there is a world where Jacoby could give him a run for his money. Lest we remember that Petrino went three full rounds with an exhausted Tyson Pedro. For those who recall that match, Petrino had all the opportunities in the world to finish Pedro but he was too tired to close the deal. If Petrino doesn’t shut down Jacoby early, he’ll have his hands full in the second half.
Petrino was submitted in the first round of his last fight as a -550 odds favorite. To say the least, it was a learning experience. Jacoby isn’t much of a submission threat but he has solid punching power. The key for Petrino is to mix in some ground control and to manage his cardio. The arrow is pointing up for Petrino and he has several clear advantages in this matchup. We like his chances of winning but we aren’t nearly as confident as the betting lines.
Betting Strategy: The fight starts round two as a parlay piece and Petrino on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
11. Manel Kape vs. Bruno Silva
- Flyweight 125 lbs -
Prediction: Manel “Starboy” Kape by Decision
Bruno Silva is fresh off a beatdown of Cody Durden. After dropping the first round, Silva rebounded with a violent knockout in the second round. In many ways, it was a tale of two fights. Silva struggled with Durden’s speed and volume in the first round. Like clockwork, Durden’s cardio fell off in the second. The one area of Silva’s game that is often overlooked is his Jiu Jitsu. He has a handful of subs and Kape has been submitted twice before.
Manel Kape’s stock slipped a little after his last performance. There was a lot of hype leading up to the fight and it ended up a snoozer. In Kape’s defense, he suffered a foot injury which significantly impacted his performance. When Kape is at his best he is one of the hardest punching flyweights in the world. Eleven of his nineteen wins are by knockout and he sports an impressive 84% win-finish-rate. So long as he doesn’t sustain another freak injury, Kape should get the job done.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds as a parlay piece, Kape on the moneyline as a parlay piece and Silva by submission as a long shot prop wager.
Did You Know? Manel Kape’s legal name is “Manuel Pedro Gomes”.
12. Billy Quarantillo vs. Cub Swanson
- Featherweight 145 lbs -
Prediction: Billy Quarantillo by Decision
Billy Quarantillo is attempting to rebound from a submission loss earlier this year against Youssef Zalal. Considering the burner that Zalal is on, it isn’t the worst loss. The biggest challenge for Quarantillo has been consistency. He’s 3-4 over his last seven and hasn’t won back to back fights in nearly five years. To Billy’s credit, he has several quality wins. On the flipside, he’s also been finished in two of his last three.
All signs are pointing towards this being Cub Swanson’s last fight. In his prime, Swanson was known for his granite chin and knockout power. Thirteen of his twenty-nine wins are by knockout. Unfortunately, he’s been in a bit of a rut lately. If this is the last time we get to see him suit up, it’s been a pleasure watching him perform. Swanson is a fan-favorite for all the right reasons. He’s a family man that wears his heart on his sleeve.
Due to Swanson’s potential retirement and how well-liked he is, the scorecards might get weird.
Betting Strategy: The fight begins round two as a parlay piece, Quarantillo on the moneyline as a parlay piece, the fight goes to split/majority decision as an individual wager and Swanson wins by split/majority decision as an individual wager.
13. Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley
- Welterweight 170 lbs -
Prediction: Colby “Chaos” Covington by Decision
Colby Covington is back in action this weekend as he looks to get back in the win column against a red hot Joaquin Buckley. Covington’s last fight was about a year ago which is on par with his normal schedule. Though a title has eluded him, he’s been in plenty of memorable battles. The key to victory for Covington is getting on the gas and making Buckley work. Covington’s striking is average but his stamina is unreal. If Covington drags this past the third round, he’s going to weaponize his cardio. Buckley hits like a truck but his one weakness is cardio. Buckley may take rounds one and two by landing the harder punches and possibly opening up a cut. But if Buckley doesn’t put him away in the first two rounds, he’ll find himself in deep waters with a world class swimmer.
The more rounds you give the judges, the more the scorecards tend to differ. And, this fight is being held in Covington’s backyard. If this ends up in the judges hands, Covington is in line to get the rub. There is also the possibility that Buckley melts so badly in the championship rounds that Covington finishes him late. Either way, we like Covington’s prospects of defeating Buckley.
Betting Strategy: The fight starts round three as a parlay piece, Covington on the moneyline as an individual wager and the fight ends in a split/majority decision as an individual wager.
Spreadsheet & Film Library
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