UFC Mexico: Moreno vs. Royval II
Preview & Predictions
The UFC makes another trip to Mexico this weekend for a fight card that lines up as a showcase for many of the Latin American athletes on the roster. Headlined by a critical flyweight rematch between Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval, with Yair Rodriguez and Brian Ortega slated to renew acquaintances in a five-round co-main event. The Mexican crowd is going to be in full force throughout the evening. VIVA MEXICO!
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1. Muhammad Naimov [-575] vs. Erik Silva [+425]
Featherweight 145 lbs / 66 kg
Prediction: Muhammad “Hitman” Naimov by Round 3 Submission (+2000)
Naimov went 3-0 in 2023 and he’s in the midst of a five-fight winning streak. He went 6-1 as an amateur before going pro in 2018. He missed his first crack at the UFC back in 2020 when he lost on Contender Series. Naimov’s big break came last summer when Jamie Mullarkey’s opponent dropped out. He made the most of his opportunity by knocking out Mullarkey. He followed up that performance with a solid decision win over Nathanial Wood.
Silva didn’t fight at all last year and he turns thirty-seven years old in a few weeks. Four of his nine wins are by submission but he’s also been submitted in both of his losses. Silva averages almost four takedowns per fight compared to 1.58 takedowns per fight for Naimov. Silva needs to secure takedowns and position control to give himself a chance. Naimov is more active in the striking department and will incorporate a lot of forward pressure.
Betting Strategy: The fight starts round two (n/a), does NOT go to decision (-190), ends by submission (n/a) and Silva on the moneyline.
Prop 🔒 : Starts Round 2 (n/a)
2. Victor Altamirano [+240] vs. Felipe Dos Santos [-298]
Flyweight 125 lbs / 57kg
Prediction: Felipe “Lipe Detona” Santos by Decision (-100)
Altamirano is an entertaining fighter that fights with reckless abandon. Win or lose, his fights produce fireworks. He has a high motor and plenty of output. He averages five strikes per minute and more than two takedowns per fight. Altamirano would be wise to reduce the amount of punches he absorbs. He can get a little sloppy and off balance which is a bad visual for the judges.
Santos lost his UFC debut about six months ago to Manel Kape. It was a quality effort and a good overall performance for his first UFC fight. And, Santos was a late replacement filling in for Kara-France. Kape has finishing skills as well but he couldn’t get rid of Santos. If Santos puts forth a similar effort this weekend he should be successful. Kape is significantly better than Altamirano.
Betting Strategy: Over 2.5 rounds (-265) and the fight goes to decision (-200).
Prop 🔒 : Starts Round 3 (n/a)
3. Luis Rodriguez [-118] vs. Denys Bondar [-102]
Flyweight 125lbs / 57 kg
Prediction: Luis “Lazy Boy” Rodriguez by Decision (+275)
Bondar is a Ukrainian grappler with awkward striking. Six of his last nine wins were by submission. Bondar got out-boxed in his last match. His inability to get his opponent to the ground forced him into a kickboxing fight. As a result, Bondar was unable to use his best weapon, Jiu Jitsu. Rodriguez and his team are very aware of how to defeat Bondar. It’s up to Bondar to get it to the ground.
Rodriguez is a young Mexican fighter making his first walk for the UFC. His last four fights were in Lux Fight League which is a respected Mexican promotion. Rodriquez sports a high finish rate but he’s been to decision in three of his last six bouts. His finish rate will likely continue to go down as he faces better competition. Rodriquez lost to Jerome Rivera four years ago on Contender Series. Rivera is 0-4 in the UFC. In Rodriquez’s defense, he was only twenty years old when he lost to Rivera. Since the loss to Rivera, Rodriguez is 5-0.
Betting Strategy: Over 1.5 rounds (-320), the fight goes to decision (-135) and Rodriguez on the moneyline.
Prop 🔒 : Starts Round 2 (-500)
4. Fares Ziam [-198] vs. Claudio Puelles [+164]
Lightweight 155 lbs / 70 kg
Prediction: Claudio “Prince of Peru” Puelles by Round 2 Submission (+900)
Ziam’s tentative fighting style makes him a landmine from a betting perspective. He lands 2.82 strikes and one takedown per fight. He hasn’t scored a finish in more than five years. Ziam has no problem circling away for fifteen minutes without sitting down on a single punch. His fighting style is uneventful and typically draws some boo birds. At the same time, he’s 4-2 in the UFC so it’s working for him.
Puelles is returning to the cage after almost two years away. He got knocked out by Dan Hooker in his last outing. At only twenty seven years of age, he still has plenty of time to get back on track. Prior to the Hooker loss, he was on a five-fight winnings streak that included dubs over Clay Guida and Jordan Leavitt. Puelles was finished in both of his UFC losses so durability is a slight concern. Puelles is serviceable at boxing range but he excels in the grappling department. He secured three kneebars in his last five wins. He also picked up a kneebar on the Ultimate Fighter in 2016. Our biggest concern with Puelles is the two year layoff after getting knocked out.
Terrance McKinney submitted Ziam a few fights ago. Puelles will have his work cut out trying to get Ziam to the ground though. Ziam will be on his bicycle and this bout is taking place in the larger cage.
Betting Strategy: Puelles by submission (+275)
Prop 🔒 : Puelles by Submission (+275)
5. Edgar Chairez [-485] vs. Daniel Lacerda [+370]
Flyweight 125lbs / 57 kg
Prediction: Edgar “Puro Chicali” Chairez by Round 1 Submission (+600)
They originally fought last fall where Lacerda got choked out in round one. The referee stepped in prematurely so it was ruled a no contest. If the referee had not interfered, Chairez would have submitted Lacerda.
Chairez is a Mexican bad-ass with a 100% finish rate. He’s an equal opportunity finisher but he does his best work in grappling scenarios. His last two wins were by submission. If/when this fight hits the mat, he’ll look to end things. Lacerda is winless in the UFC with four straight losses. To make matters worse, he was finished in all four of those bouts, including twice in the first round.
Of their last six combined wins, four of them were by submission. The other two wins were by knockout. A finish seems imminent.
Betting Strategy: Under 1.5 rounds (-215), the fight does NOT start round three (-330), the fight ends by submission (+130) and Chairez as a parlay piece.
Prop 🔒 : No Round 3 (-330)
6. Jesus Aguilar [+114] vs. Mateus Mendonca [-135]
Flyweight 125 lbs / 57 kg
Prediction: Jesus Aguilar by Round 2 Submission (+1000)
Aguilar scored a highlight knockout over Shannon Ross in his last fight. He’s won nine of his last ten fights which included an impressive win over Edgar Chairez. Aguilar has flashed knockout power and his BJJ is on point. Six of his nine wins are by submission. Aguilar averages almost three takedowns per fight while averaging only 1.69 strikes per minute. His low striking numbers could be a problem if it goes to the scorecards. At the same time, Mendonca is also a low volume fighter.
Mendonca made his way into the UFC via the 2022 Contender Series. He’s trying to get back in the win column after dropping his first two fights in the promotion. He suffered a devastating knockout loss to Nate Maness in his last bout. Mendonca was a -240 odds favorite heading into that fight and he didn’t even make it out of the first round. Considering that he hasn’t had his hand raised since 2022, Mendonca needs a win to get his swagger back.
Betting Strategy: Under 2.5 rounds (-150), the fight does NOT go the distance (-180) and the fight ends by submission (+150).
Prop 🔒 : Does Not Go Distance (-180)
7. Roani Barcelos [-175] vs. Christian Quinonez [+145]
Bantamweight 135 lbs / 61 kg
Prediction: Christian “Problema” Quinonez by Decision (+550)
Quinonez was riding a five-fight winning streak before he was submitted in his last match. At only twenty seven years old, he is almost a decade younger than Barcelos. We like Quinonez’s motor and active fighting style. His striking defense could be better and his durability is questionable. When Quinonez is at his best, he lets his hands go and backs down opponents with volume.
Barcelos is a former national championship wrestler that transitioned to MMA in his mid twenties. After starting his UFC career with five straight wins, he is 1-4 in his last five bouts. Barcelos lost to Victor Henry as a -500 odds favorite a few fights ago. You have to go all the way back to 2019 to find the last time Barcelos earned a win over a current UFC fighter.
Betting Strategy: Over 1.5 rounds (-175), the fight goes to decision (+160) and the fight ends in split decision (+700).
Prop 🔒 : Starts Round 2 (-280)
8. Manuel Torres [-192] vs. Chris Duncan [+160]
Lightweight 155 lbs / 70 kg
Prediction: Manuel “El Loco” Torres by Round 1 TKO/KO (+250)
Torres is a dangerous fighter with finishes in almost all of his wins. He earned his UFC contact in 2021 via Contender Series and has followed that up with back to back round one knockouts. The crowd is going to be jacked up as he approaches the cage. Win, lose or draw, Torres is gonna lay it all on the line. Though he won his last two fights by knockout, he has plenty of submissions on his resume.
Duncan is also a Contender Series product. He sports an impressive 11-1 record and is currently on a four-fight winning streak. Duncan began his career with seven straight finishes. As he has moved up in competition, his finish rate has dropped off dramatically. Duncan has one finish in his last five fights. He narrowly won a split decision over Omar Morales a few fights ago. One of our biggest concerns with Duncan is his chin. He has a tendency to leave his chin up high as he exchanges.
Betting Strategy: Under 1.5 rounds (-200), the fight does NOT start round three (-360), the fight ends by TKO/KO (-150) and Torres as a parlay piece.
Prop 🔒 : No Round 3 (-360)
9. Yazmin Jauregui [-575] vs. Sam Hughes [+425]
Strawweight 115 lbs / 52 kg
Prediction: Yazmin Jauregui by Decision (-120)
Hughes will put up a good fight but she is outmatched in just about every area. Jauregui lands more strikes, hits with more power and defends takedowns at 100% rate. The only way Hughes can win this fight is if she secures two rounds of control time or Jauregui sustains an injury. Otherwise, Jauregui is going to put on a striking clinic.
Betting Strategy: Over 1.5 rounds (-400), Jauregui as a parlay piece, the fight ends in a split decision (+350) and Hughes by decision (+600) as a longshot prop.
Prop 🔒 : Starts Round 2 (-550)
10. Raul Rosas Jr. [-218] vs. Ricky Turcios [+180]
Bantamweight 135 lbs / 61 kg
Prediction: Raul “El Nino Problema” Rosas Jr. by Decision (+200)
The UFC is pushing Rosas. They booked him for a main event of a prelim card for a PPV event in his first UFC fight. And now this will be his third consecutive main card spot on a PPV card. He dropped the ball two fights ago as a -250 odds favorite. In that fight, he was unable to take down his opponent and he ran out of gas. Rosas bounced back with a round one finish of Terrance Mitchell. But, Mitchell has no business in the UFC and definitely didn’t belong on the main card of a PPV event. Yet, the UFC booked the fight just to give Rosas a highlight finish.
Turcios won over fans during his time on TUF. His last fight was hard to watch. Turcios refused to engage with his opponent and just kept fainting. He is a likable character with positive vibes. But, the fight game might not be in his DNA. Additionally, he didn’t fight at all last year. Is it possible the matchmakers purposely put him on ice after his last performance? Regardless, we want no parts of having Turcios on our betting slips this weekend.
Betting Strategy: The fight starts round two (-400), over 1.5 rounds (-345) and Rosas as a parlay piece.
Prop 🔒 : Starts Round 2 (-400)
11. Daniel Zellhuber [-270] vs. Francisco Prado [+220]
Lightweight 155 lbs / 70 kg
Prediction: Daniel “Golden Boy” Zellhuber by Decision (+175)
This is an excellent match between two talented young fighters. Prado represents a growing trend of quality fighters from Argentina. Zellhuber is a polished striker with a balanced attack. Though Zellhuber is the clear favorite on the moneyline, Prado shouldn’t be underestimated. All twelve of Prado’s wins were inside the distance. He’s also displayed the ability to go three rounds. At a minimum, he’ll be ready to throw down for fifteen minutes.
Zellhuber has faced a slightly better strength of schedule because he’s been in the UFC longer. His only blemish was a decision loss to Trey Ogden two years ago. Zellhuber can finish a fight in a variety of ways. He’ll enjoy a noticeable reach advantage, ten inches, over Prado. Zellhuber lands 5.26 strikes per minute compared to 3.46 for Prado. In theory, Zellhuber should pull ahead on the scorecards the longer the fight goes.
Neither of them initiate much grappling so this will probably remain standing. In that scenario, either Prado will score another highlight knockout or Zellhuber will edge him out on the scorecards.
Betting Strategy: Over 1.5 rounds (-205) and Zellhuber as a parlay piece.
Prop 🔒 : Starts Round 2 (-330)
12. Yair Rodriguez [-148] vs. Brian Ortega [+124]
Featherweight 145 lbs / 66 kg
Prediction: Yair “El Pantera” Rodriguez by Decision (+250)
This is a rematch from 2022 when Ortega was forced to bow out due to a shoulder injury at the end of round one. Ortega has taken the better part of the last year and a half to rehab his injury. During that time, Rodriguez picked up an interim belt before losing to Volkanovski at UFC 290. Rodriquez is eager to work his way back into the championship conversation. A dominating performance will go a long way to helping make that happen.
Ortega hasn’t had his hand raised in about four years. He’s 1-3 in his last four which included a career beating he suffered versus Volkanovski. Ortega is a quality fighter with good Jiu Jitsu. He would be wise to mix in grappling as much as possible. Ortega is a former high school wrestler and his grappling is high level. While they are standing, Rodriguez will have the advantage.
It’s important to note that this is a five round affair. And, they’ve both have durability issues.
Betting Strategy: Over 1.5 rounds (-320), the fight does NOT go the distance (-200), Rodriguez by TKO/KO (+180) and Ortega by submission (+300).
Prop 🔒 : Starts Round 2 (-550)
13. Brandon Moreno [-290] vs. Brandon Royval [+235]
Flyweight 125 lbs / 57 kg
Prediction: Brandon “Assassin Baby” Moreno by Decision (+140)
This is a rematch from a few years ago. The first fight was cut short because of a shoulder injury to Royval in the first round. They are both coming off decision losses to Pantoja, current champ. Royval lost to Pantoja three months ago at UFC 296. It was a valiant effort and he was able to go the distance. At the very least, Royval proved that he belongs in the title hunt.
Moreno lost by split decision to Pantoja. In another universe, he would be defending his belt this weekend. Moreno has multiple wins over some of the best in the world like Kai Kara-France and Deiveson Figueiredo. Strictly from a strength of schedule perspective, Moreno has the slight edge. Furthermore, Moreno is the former champion while Royval has never been to the top of the mountain.
Betting Strategy: Over 1.5 rounds (-400) and the fight starts round three (-300).
Prop 🔒 : Over 1.5 Rounds (-400)
Video Breakdown
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