UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley
Preview & Predictions
Get ready for an action-packed Saturday as UFC Fight Night returns with a thrilling welterweight headliner between surging contender Joaquin Buckley and former champion Kamaru Usman. Buckley is aiming to shake up the division with a statement win, while Usman looks to prove he’s still a top-tier force at 170 pounds. With a card stacked with rising prospects and seasoned veterans, fans are in for a night full of pivotal matchups and breakout potential. Don’t miss a second—tune in to ESPN+ at 7:00 PM (EST) this Saturday.
— Prelim Card —
1. Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth
- Women’s Flyweight 125 lbs -
Prediction: Jamey Lyn-Horth by Decision
The card kicks off with a women’s flyweight bout between Vanessa “Lil Monster” Demopoulos and the rising Canadian force Jamey-Lyn Horth. Both fighters are looking to make a statement and move one step closer to the top 15 rankings.
Vanessa Demopoulos (11-7) enters the octagon with her signature grit and flair. A fan-favorite known for her energetic walkouts and infectious personality, Demopoulos backs it up with slick jiu-jitsu and a fearless approach. Though she’s dropped three of her last four bouts, her defeats were against respectable opposition. Her last win, a split decision over Emily Ducote, hasn’t aged well—Ducote was recently cut from the UFC after a 1-3 run. For Demopoulos, the path to victory is clear: close the distance, initiate grappling exchanges, and hunt for submissions on the mat.
Jamey-Lyn Horth (6-1) made her UFC debut in 2023 with a solid decision win over Hailey Cowan. Since then, she’s gone the distance in four straight bouts—including two split decisions—highlighting her ability to stay competitive but also her tendency to leave fights in the judges' hands. Horth will look to dictate the pace from the outside using long-range kicks and boxing combinations while doing everything possible to avoid being grounded.
This matchup is a stylistic chess match centered on range and control. If Horth keeps it standing, her physicality and output should give her the edge. But if Demopoulos can force a gritty, scramble-heavy fight, her experience on the mat could become the deciding factor.
With ten of their last eleven fights going the distance—and three split decisions between them in their last six outings—this one has all the makings of another close call. The safest bet? It’s likely heading to the scorecards.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes to decision as a parlay piece and the fight ends in a split/majority decision as an individual wager.
2. Phil Rowe vs. Ange Loosa
- Welterweight 170 lbs -
Prediction: Ange Loosa by Decision
Phil “The Fresh Prince” Rowe takes on Ange “The Last Ninja” Loosa. Both fighters are hovering near the edge of the rankings conversation and need a definitive win to solidify their place in a crowded division.
Phil Rowe (10-5) brings a dangerous mix of size, reach, and finishing ability into every fight. At 6’3” with an 80.5-inch reach, Rowe is a massive presence in the welterweight division. He’s finished all ten of his career wins, with nine coming by knockout or TKO. Rowe has had trouble with consistency, alternating wins and losses in his last five outings. His most recent bout—a decision loss to Jake Matthews—showcased his power and potential, but also his struggles against volume strikers who can push a pace and neutralize his range.
Ange Loosa (10-3) enters this matchup riding a wave of momentum. The Sanford MMA product was winless in his last two bouts. It goes without saying that he is probably eager to get his hand raised. His last two wins were over A.J. Fletcher and Rhys McKee. Fletcher has since been cut from the UFC and McKee is 1-2 in the promotion. Loosa is known for his grit and tenacity—traits that helped him survive and even thrive in tough exchanges. Though not a prolific finisher, his ability to wear opponents down and steal rounds with high output makes him a tricky assignment for any welterweight.
Rowe will look to keep the fight at range and hunt for the big shot, while Loosa will aim to pressure, mix in leg kicks, and potentially test Rowe’s gas tank. The biggest question heading into this fight is whether Rowe can avoid Loosa’s power long enough to accumulate damage and control the tempo.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 2.5 rounds as a parlay piece.
3. Ricky Simon vs. Cameron Smotherman
- Bantamweight 135 lbs -
Prediction: Ricky Simon by Decision
Bantamweight fireworks are on deck as veteran standout Ricky Simon squares off against promising newcomer Cameron Smotherman. Simon (21-6) enters the bout looking to pick up his second win in a row after decking his last opponent (Javid Basharat) in the first round. Known for his relentless pace, dominant wrestling, and solid chin, Simon has long been a fixture in the division’s top 15. He holds notable wins over Raphael Assunção and Jack Shore. Simon brings a well-rounded game built on pressure and grappling control.
On the other side, Cameron Smotherman (12-5) makes his third walk into the cage for the UFC after earning attention with an impressive run on the regional circuit. Fighting out of Texas, Smotherman brings a high-octane style, relying on crisp boxing, fluid movement, and a fearless approach in the pocket. While he’s stepping up in competition against a seasoned and tested opponent, Smotherman sees this as a breakthrough opportunity to put the bantamweight division on notice. It’s important to note that Smotherman is stepping in on short notice as a replacement for Charles Jourdain.
With Simon’s experience and wrestling pedigree clashing against Smotherman’s striking and hunger to prove himself, fans can expect a dynamic matchup with real implications for the future of the 135-pound ranks.
Betting Strategy: The fight starts round 3 as a parlay piece and Smotherman on the moneyline as an underdog play.
4. Jose Ochoa vs. Cody Durden
- Flyweight 125 lbs -
Prediction: Jose Ochoa by Round 2 Submission
The UFC flyweight division gets an intriguing addition to the card as Cody Durden takes on rising prospect Jose Ochoa in what promises to be a war. Fighting in his home state of Georgia, Durden brings a wealth of UFC experience into the octagon, boasting a 17-7-1 record and a reputation for relentless pressure. With over four takedowns per 15 minutes and a solid 73% takedown defense, Durden thrives when he can dictate the pace and force opponents into prolonged grappling exchanges. However, his striking defense has been a concern at times, as he tends to absorb more shots than he lands, making him vulnerable against technically sound opponents.
Jose Ochoa enters the bout with a 7-1 record and a growing fanbase following his impressive performances on the regional circuit. This fight will mark his second in the UFC. Though Ochoa came up short in his UFC debut, Ochoa showed flashes of potential. He prefers to keep fights standing, using smart movement and accurate counters to frustrate opponents. While his takedown offense has room for improvement, he’s dangerous off his back and opportunistic when scrambling.
The clash between Durden’s grinding wrestling and Ochoa’s slick striking creates a compelling stylistic matchup. For Durden, the key will be closing the distance early and controlling position without getting caught in transitions. Ochoa will aim to stay on the outside, pick his shots, and capitalize on any overextensions. With hometown pride on the line for Durden and a breakout opportunity in front of Ochoa, this flyweight tilt could turn into a fast-paced chess match with real implications for both fighters' trajectories.
Betting Strategy: Jose Ochoa on the moneyline as a parlay piece and the fight does NOT go to decision as a parlay piece.
5. Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Kris Moutinho
- Bantamweight 135 lbs -
Prediction: Malcolm Wellmaker by Round 2 TKO/KO
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Kris Moutinho isn’t your typical bantamweight matchup—it’s a collision of two fighters who thrive in the chaos and refuse to take a step backward. Wellmaker, is making his second appearance for the UFC in front of a hometown Georgia crowd. He brings a 9-0 record and a style built on pressure, toughness, and a willingness to bite down and throw. He’s aggressive, durable, and raw—attributes that have carried him to the sport’s biggest stage.
Facing him is Kris Moutinho, the embodiment of heart and grit. Moutinho may be best remembered for his short-notice brawl with Sean O’Malley, but he’s more than just a punching bag. His relentless pace and ability to absorb punishment while moving forward make him a unique challenge for any opponent. Though still evolving as a fighter, Moutinho’s volume-heavy approach and refusal to break keep him dangerous at all times.
The matchup feels less like a test of technique and more like a trial by fire. Wellmaker will try to make a statement in his debut, while Moutinho aims to remind fans—and the UFC—that he belongs. Expect a dogfight from the opening bell. Clean technique may not be the headline, but raw determination and non-stop action certainly will be.
Betting Strategy: Malcolm Wellmaker by TKO/KO as a parlay piece.
6. Michael Chiesa vs. Court McGee
- Welterweight 170 lbs -
Prediction: Court McGee by Round 2 Submission
Michael Chiesa, a former TUF champion and submission specialist, recently moved up to 170 lbs with renewed vigor. He made easy work of seasoned veterans like Tony Ferguson and Max Griffin in his last two outings. At 37, Chiesa brings a refined wrestling-heavy approach, long reach (75 in), and a southpaw stance—tools he'll look to employ in forcing McGee into uncomfortable positions.
Across the cage, Court “The Crusher” McGee carries a legacy of resilience, dating back to his TUF win in 2010. Though now 40 and slower than in his prime, he remains durable and technically sound when it comes to striking and wrestling, He earned a slick neck crank submission win over Tim Means at UFC 307. With 23 UFC fights under his belt, McGee is battle-tested, comfortable in a grind, and capable of weathering storms.
Chiesa’s aim will be to control the pace with takedowns and gradual attrition, while McGee will bank on his durability and composure to stay upright, mix in strikes, and potentially threaten on the feet. Betting odds lean heavily toward Chiesa (around –345 odds), but McGee is respected at a +275 underdog for his experience and toughness. Statistical models give Chiesa a roughly 60 percent chance to win.
Betting Strategy: The fight ends by submission as an individual wager and McGee by submission (+1200) as an individual prop wager.
7. Rodolfo Bellato vs. Paul Craig
- Light Heavyweight 205 lbs -
Prediction: Paul Craig by Round 2 Submission
This is a compelling heavyweight matchup which pits Brazil’s rising star Rodolfo Bellato (12‑2‑1) against Scotland’s submission specialist Paul Craig (17‑9‑1), in what could be a defining moment for both men. Bellato enters the Octagon off a hard-fought majority draw with Jimmy Crute and boasts impressive accuracy (62 % significant strike) and a flawless takedown defense. But, questions remain about his ability to impose his will deep into tough grappling exchanges along with his endurance. Craig, meanwhile, is a black-belt-level grappler with 13 of his 17 wins coming by submission. He has a knack for snatching victories from the jaws of defeat—a trait that earned him a stunning triangle choke finish over Nikita Krylov despite being battered early. Though Craig is fighting for his UFC future—this is the final bout on his contract after suffering three straight losses—he thrives under pressure and has repeatedly shown that once a fight hits the mat, he becomes dangerous. Bellato will need to keep this fight standing, relying on precision striking and avoiding grappling exchanges, while Craig’s path to victory is clear: work his guard, bait Bellato into transition, and unleash one of his patented submissions. If Craig can neutralize the Brazilian’s takedown defense and drag him into deep waters, there’s genuine reason to believe he walks away with another finish.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT go to decision as a parlay piece, Craig on the moneyline as an individual wager and Craig by submission as an individual prop wager.
— Main Card —
8. Oumar Sy vs. Alonzo Menifield
- Light Heavyweight 205 lbs -
Prediction: Oumar Sy by Round 2 TKO/KO
Light heavyweight contenders Oumar Sy and Alonzo Menifield square off in what promises to be a striking-centric battle with serious power on both sides.
Oumar Sy (11‑0) is the rising force in the division. Standing 6’4″ with an imposing 83-inch reach, Sy has proven himself a well-rounded threat, averaging 4.81 significant strikes per minute at 59% accuracy while absorbing just 1.71 per minute, thanks to a crisp 73% strike defense. His grappling has also impressed—he lands over three takedowns per 15 minutes with a perfect takedown defense to date. More than half of his UFC wins have come via stoppage, showcasing a finisher’s instinct that makes him a —700 odds favorite.
Alonzo Menifield (16‑5‑1), meanwhile, is no stranger to power. Known for his explosive striking, he lands four significant strikes per minute at 55% accuracy while absorbing nearly four per minute himself. His takedown offense is modest—just 0.56 per 15 minutes with a 78% defense—but Menifield’s background in football forged toughness and aggression that have proven effective at clinch range. He enters atop the light heavyweight rankings and is looking to reassert himself following a narrow split-decision win in Feb. 2025.
Sy’s long-range precision and unbeaten confidence could neutralize Menifield’s pressure-heavy approach. Meanwhile, Menifield may try to drag the fight into midrange, where his physicality and knockout power are his greatest assets. Given Sy’s striking accuracy, defensive acumen, and grappling control, the edge tilts in his favor—but Menifield is no pushover. His ability to absorb punishment and land concussive blows gives him a legitimate path to victory.
Expect fireworks—this one could end anywhere. At the very least, it promises to be a thrilling stand-up duel with big moments in every round.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT go to decision as a parlay piece and the fight ends by TKO/KO as a parlay piece.
9. Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Cody Brundage
- Welterweight 170 lbs -
Prediction: Mansur Abdul-Malik by Round 1 TKO/KO
A classic striker-versus-wrestler showdown is set as undefeated Russian prospect Mansur Abdul-Malik makes his UFC debut against gritty veteran Cody Brundage. This matchup offers a compelling look at rising talent meeting seasoned experience in a division hungry for new contenders.
Abdul-Malik arrives in the UFC with a perfect record and plenty of hype behind him. Fighting out of Dagestan, the 26-year-old brings a composed, technical striking style paired with strong takedown defense and fight IQ well beyond his years. Though relatively untested on the big stage, his performances on the regional circuit and in international competition have shown a calm, methodical approach and a knack for staying one step ahead of his opponents. The UFC will be looking to see if he can maintain that poise under the pressure of a bigger spotlight.
Cody Brundage enters this bout with his back against the wall but still very much in the fight. Known for his wrestling base, heart, and ability to grind out tough wins, Brundage has had an up-and-down run in the UFC. He’s proven dangerous early in fights and is always hunting for finishes, whether through ground-and-pound or opportunistic submissions. However, lapses in cardio management and defensive awareness have cost him in the past. Against a sharp striker like Abdul-Malik, Brundage will need to close distance early and turn this into a physical contest.
This fight presents a high-stakes opportunity for both men. Abdul-Malik looks to make a strong first impression and announce himself as a real player in the middleweight division, while Brundage seeks to spoil the debut and reassert himself as a dependable presence in the UFC ranks. If Abdul-Malik can manage distance and dictate the pace, his path to victory becomes clearer. But if Brundage can make it a dirty fight, drag it into deeper rounds, and mix in his wrestling, the upset is very much in play.
Betting Strategy: Mansur Abdul-Malik inside the distance as a parlay piece and the fight goes under 1.5 rounds as a parlay piece.
10. Cody Garbrandt vs. Raoni Barcelos
- Bantamweight 135 lbs -
Prediction: Raoni Barcelos by Decision
Cody Garbrandt squares off with Brazilian veteran Raoni Barcelos in this clash of UFC veterans. Both fighters are looking to climb back into relevance in one of the UFC’s deepest and most competitive divisions.
Garbrandt, now 32, remains one of the most explosive and polarizing fighters at 135 pounds. After a brutal run of losses between 2017 and 2021, Garbrandt has shown signs of resurgence, focusing more on patience and defensive awareness to complement his lightning-fast hands and knockout power. Once known for his blistering hand speed and crisp boxing, Garbrandt now finds himself in a position where strategy and durability are just as important as aggression. This fight represents another chance to prove he still belongs among the elite in the division.
Barcelos, on the other hand, is a dangerous and highly skilled fighter who has long flown under the radar. With a background in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and solid striking, Barcelos is well-rounded and capable of competing wherever the fight goes. While recent results haven’t always gone his way, his losses have come against top-tier competition, and he remains a serious threat to anyone outside the top ten. For Barcelos, a win over a former champion like Garbrandt would be a major resume booster and a step toward the rankings.
This fight is likely to come down to tempo and composure. Garbrandt’s speed and explosiveness can overwhelm opponents early, but if Barcelos can stay composed and drag this into the later rounds, his pressure and durability could shift the momentum in his favor. The key question is whether Garbrandt can avoid getting drawn into a firefight and stick to a disciplined game plan, while Barcelos must decide whether to test Garbrandt’s chin or exploit his tendency to fade under pressure.
It’s a must-win for both men, and stylistically, it has the makings of a fan-friendly war.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes the distance as a parlay piece and the fight goes to a split/majority decision as an individual prop wager.
11. Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Andre Petroski
- Middleweight 185 lbs -
Prediction: Edmen Shahbazyan by Rd. 3 TKO/KO
Two middleweights with something to prove are set to clash as Edmen Shahbazyan faces Andre Petroski in a high-stakes matchup that could determine who stays relevant in a crowded 185-pound division.
Edmen Shahbazyan was once seen as a future title contender, Shahbazyan burst onto the UFC scene with a string of first-round finishes. However, after a promising start, Edmen hit a rough patch, dropping three of his last four fights. Still only 26 years old, Shahbazyan has been working on rebuilding his game and sharpening his fight IQ. Known for his striking and explosive starts, he’s now looking for consistency and composure in longer fights.
Andre Petroski comes in as a gritty, wrestling-heavy middleweight with a no-nonsense approach. He’s been steadily climbing the ranks with his grappling and relentless pressure, although a recent setback reminded fans that he’s still developing. Petroski has shown strong top control and durability, making him a tough matchup for anyone who can’t keep him off of them. This fight presents a big opportunity for him to bounce back and steal some shine from a more established name.
Shahbazyan will look to keep the fight standing and use his speed and technical striking to keep Petroski at range.
Petroski’s path to victory lies in closing the distance, using his wrestling to control tempo, and forcing Shahbazyan into uncomfortable positions on the mat.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT go to decision as a parlay piece, Shahbazyan by TKO/KO as an individual wager and Petroski by submission as an individual wager.
12. Rose Namajunas vs. Miranda Maverick
- Women’s Flyweight 125 lbs -
Prediction: Rose Namajunas by Decision
A pivotal flyweight showdown is on the horizon as former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas takes on rising contender Miranda Maverick. With the flyweight division wide open behind the reigning champ, this bout could have serious implications for the 125-pound rankings.
Rose Namajunas returns to action after a decision loss to Erin Blanchfield in her last outing. Known for her fluid movement, sharp counterstriking, and underrated ground game, “Thug” Rose is one of the most technically gifted women in the sport. If she can rediscover the killer instinct that carried her to two strawweight titles, she remains a threat to anyone in the division.
Miranda Maverick is a tough, well-rounded fighter with strong wrestling, physicality, and relentless pressure. After regaining her momentum with a string of solid performances, she now gets the biggest opportunity of her career. A win over a former champion would be a major statement and could fast-track her toward the top five. Maverick thrives in grinding battles, and she’ll look to test Rose’s takedown defense and gas tank over three hard rounds.
Expect a classic striker-vs-grappler dynamic. Rose will look to control range and counter Maverick’s forward movement, while Miranda will attempt to close the distance, initiate clinches, and work for takedowns. If the fight stays standing, Namajunas likely holds the advantage. On the mat, Maverick’s top pressure could wear Rose down. We’re banking on Namajunas’s championship pedigree to squeeze out the victory.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes to decision as a parlay piece, the fight ends in a split/majority decision as an individual wager and Namajunas on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
13. Joaquin Buckley vs. Kamaru Usman
- Welterweight 170 lbs -
Prediction: Kamaru Usman by Split Decision
Get ready for a collision of styles, personalities, and stakes as former UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman faces surging knockout artist Joaquin Buckley in a bout that’s stirring up serious buzz in the MMA world.
Usman returns to the cage with something to prove. After dropping three straight—including two to Leon Edwards and a short-notice move up to middleweight against Khamzat Chimaev—Usman’s looking to reestablish dominance and remind fans why he was once the pound-for-pound king. Despite the recent setbacks, his elite wrestling and championship experience can’t be overlooked. The question is: can he handle the speed and explosiveness of a younger, hungrier opponent?
Buckley is riding a wave of momentum. After reinventing himself at welterweight, he's gone from highlight-reel striker to complete fighter. His power is undeniable, but what’s impressed most recently is his improved cardio, movement, and cage IQ. Buckley isn’t just looking to win—he’s chasing marquee names, and a victory over Usman would catapult him into legitimate contender status.
If Usman fights smart and leans on his grappling, this could be a vintage performance. But if Buckley can keep it standing and land something big, this may be the official passing of the torch.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 2.5 rounds as a parlay piece, the fight goes to a split/majority decision as an individual wager and Usman on the moneyline as an individual wager.
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