UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi
Preview & Predictions
The UFC is heading back up north for their annual visit to Canada. In total, eight Canadian nationals will be on the card. For the WMMA lovers out there, the ladies are back in action with three female fights on the docket. The heavyweight clash between Derrick Lewis and Jhonata Diniz is sure to produce fireworks. Tune in on Saturday at 5:00 PM (ET) to catch all the action on ESPN.
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— Prelim Card —
1. Jack Shore vs. Youssef Zalal
- Featherweight 145 lbs -
Prediction: Youssef "The Moroccan Devil" Zalal by Round 2 Submission
Youssef Zalal is coming off back to back submission wins and he’s riding a five-fight winning streak. On the other hand, Jack Shore is 1-2 in his last three which included a submission loss to Ricky Simon. Shore was 16-0 before dropping two of his last three.
Combined, more than half of their wins (17) are by submission. Considering how much they both like to employ wrestling, a submission ending is a possibility. Keep in mind, Shore averages more strikes landed and more takedowns. In theory, Shore could edge out a decision if it goes the distance. At the same time, Shore has been manhandled in recent fights which makes you wonder if he has the chops to hang with higher level guys.
We’re riding the hot hand in Zalal to pick up another submission victory.
Betting Strategy: The fight ends by submission as an individual wager, Zalal by submission as an individual wager and Shore by decision as an individual wager.
2. Jamey-Lyn Horth vs. Ivana Petrovic
- Flyweight 125 lbs -
Prediction: Ivana Petrovic by Split/Majority Decision
Jamey-Lyn Horth was on the wrong side of a split decision in her last outing. It was her first loss and her second fight in the promotion. Going the distance in a close fight with Veronica Hardy 2.0 is nothing to be ashamed of. Horth lands 3.97 strikes per minute compared to only 2.19 for Petrovic. Part of the reason for the disparity is that Petrovic depends more on her ground game. Petrovic averages nearly three takedowns per fight compared to only 0.50 takedowns per fight for Horth.
Ivana Petrovic picked up a submission win over Na Liang earlier this year. Prior to that, she dropped her promotional debut against Luana Carolina. Petrovic offers a balanced attack with her Jiu Jitsu serving as her greatest weapon. She’ll have her work cut out trying to submit Horth. In ten fights, amateur included, Horth has not been submitted. Petrovic’s path to victory is controlling Horth on the mat. Horth has 25% takedown defense so Petrovic should have some success taking her down.
They are evenly matched, it’s a female fight and they’ve both been to split decisions before. The hometown fighter will probably get the rub but Petrovic’s takedowns and position control could push her to victory.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes to decision as a parlay piece and the fight ends by split/majority decision as an individual wager.
3. Cody Gibson vs. Chad Anheliger
- Bantamweight 135 lbs -
Prediction: Cody “The Renegade” Gibson by Decision
Cody Gibson is a UFC veteran that has fought on and off for the promotion for years. He earned a dominant submission win over Brian Kelleher in his last fight. The win broke a two-fight losing streak for Gibson. Gibson sports a 61.9% win-finish-rate with the bulk of his wins by decision. Four of his ten defeats were by submission and he’s never been knocked out. Statistically, Gibson is the busier fighter. He averages more strikes landed and secures more takedowns.
Chad Anheliger won a hard-fought decision back in May over Charalampos Grigoriou. Anheliger showed the ability to recover from adversity and his conditioning looked solid. He’ll need a similar performance to get the better of Gibson. As we already highlighted, Gibson can take a punch. Anheliger has a few subs on his resume but he hasn’t earned a submission in seven years. Like Gibson, Anheliger has had his troubles defending submissions.
The main reason we are going with Gibson is because of his experience and volume. The fact that Anheliger is fighting on home soil can’t be discounted, especially if it’s close.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes to decision as a parlay piece and the fight goes to split/majority decision as an individual wager.
4. Serhiy Sidey vs. Garrett Armfield
- Bantamweight 135 lbs -
Prediction: Serhiy Sidey by Decision
Garrett Armfield is coming off a disappointing performance against Brady Hiestand. Armfield had some success early on and then quickly began to fade. His questionable cardio and poor submission defense make it hard to get behind him. Until Armfield rounds out his game, he’ll be on our auto-fade list.
Serhiy Sidey is also attempting to get back in the win column after dropping his last fight to Ramon Taveras by split decision. Unlike Armfield, Sidey showed the ability to overcome adversity to make it a competitive fight. Both of Sidey’s defeats were by decision and eight of his ten wins are inside the distance.
They both land about the same amount of strikes per minute and neither of them have a takedown in the UFC. They also have the same exact win-finish-rate, 80.0%. The math says this is a 50/50 fight.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds as a parlay piece, the fight goes to split/majority decision as an individual wager.
5. Alexandr Romanov vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
- Heavyweight 265 lbs -
Prediction: Alexandr “King Kong” Romanov by Round 1 TKO/KO
Alexandr Romanov is a natural heavyweight with excellent wrestling. When he’s on his game, you’ll see him pounding out his opponents. Romanov has to cut weight to get down to 265 lb’s which means he’ll be close to 280 lb’s on fight night. His massive frame works to his benefit when he’s in top position. The bad version of Romanov is the one that fans have seen against Marcin Tybura, Alexander Volkov and Jailton Almeida. You can give Romanov a pass for losing to Volkov and Almeida. But, his loss to Tybura was a prime example Romanov’s shortcomings.
Rodrigo Nascimento earned his UFC contract via the Contender Series in 2019. He’s put together a respectable 4-2-1 record in the UFC. The biggest critique of Nascimento is his win condition. Three of his four wins in the promotion are by decision, two by split. With the UFC brass encouraging more finishes, Nascimento probably isn’t a fighter they are excited about. It’s up to Nascimento to change the narrative by stepping into the fire.
Romanov secures 4.17 takedowns per fight compared to 1.23 per fight for Nascimento. If Nascimento can’t keep it standing in the first half of the fight, Romanov is going to suffocate him on the ground.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes under 2.5 rounds as a parlay piece and Romanov inside the distance as a parlay piece.
6. Charles Jourdain vs. Victor Henry
- Bantamweight 135 lbs -
Prediction: Victor Henry by Decision
Due to the size constraints of the newsletter, we were unable to publish the writeup for this bout. We apologize for the inconvenience.
Betting Strategy: The fight starts round three as a parlay piece, the fight ends in a split/majority decision as an individual prop wager and Henry on the moneyline as an individual wager.
7. Ariane Lipski vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
- Flyweight 125 lbs -
Prediction: Jasmine Jasudavicius by Decision
Ariane Lipski dropped her last match to Karine Silva back in April of this year. The loss put an end to Lipski’s three-fight winning streak. During that stretch she earned an impressive armbar submission over Casey O’Neill. Lipski sports an abnormally high win-finish-rate for a female flyweight. More than half of her wins are inside the distance. All that said, she only has one finish in her last eight fights.
Jasmine Jasudavicius is a Canadian fighter that employs a pressure fighting style. She likes to push her opponents up against the fence and bully them. When the opportunity arises, Jasudavicius will jump at the chance to take down the enemy. Jasudavicious averages 2.39 takedowns per fight to go with 3.79 strikes per minute. In eighteen fights, amateur included, she’s never been finished.
Betting Strategy: The fight starts round three as a parlay piece, the fight ends in split/majority decision as an individual wager and Jasudavicious on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
8. Aiemann Zahabi vs. Pedro Munhoz
- Bantamweight 135 lbs -
Prediction: Aiemann Zahabi by Decision
Due to the size constraints of the newsletter, we were unable to publish the writeup for this bout. We apologize for the inconvenience.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds as a parlay piece and Zahabi on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
— Main Card —
9. Mike Malott vs. Trevin Giles
- Welterweight 170 lbs -
Prediction: Mike “Proper” Malott by Round 1 Submission
Mike Malott is an elite grappler that’s won six of his ten fights by submission. Meanwhile, Trevin Giles has been submitted several times, including two fights ago. With all due respect to Giles, this is not a good opponent for him. It appears the matchmakers put this together to provide the home crowd with an exciting finish to open the main card.
Giles needs to touch-up Malott when they are at boxing range to give himself a shot. Malott has looked chinny at times, including his last fight where he was knocked out by Neil Magny. Notably, Malott was a -380 odds favorite in that fight and it was held in Canada. Could history repeat itself?
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT go to decision as a parlay piece, Malott inside the distance as an individual wager, Giles by TKO/KO as an individual wager and Malott on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
10. Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
- Middleweight 185 lbs -
Prediction: Marc-Andre “Powerbar” Barriault by Decision
They are both trying to rebound from knockout defeats. Combined, they are 4-6 in their last ten fights. The good news is that one of them will get a much needed win this weekend. The bad news is that they are probably going to dance around the cage for fifteen minutes. It’s only natural to expect them to be cautious after suffering another knockout losses.
Marc-Andre Barriault lands 6.12 strikes per minute compared to 3.51 strikes per minute for Stoltzfus. Dustin Stoltzfus secures 2.45 takedowns per fight compared to 0.21 for Barriault. Whomever can implement their game plan will have the edge. We’re leaning towards Barriault because he’s fighting at home and he pushes a higher pace. Combined, they have a 61.1% win-finish-rate which leads us to believe this will go the distance.
Betting Strategy: The fight starts round three as a parlay piece, the fight ends in split/majority decision as an individual wager and Barriault on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
11. Caio Machado vs. Brendson Ribeiro
- Light Heavyweight 205 lbs -
Prediction: Caio “Bigfoot” Machado by Decision
Caio Machado has a large frame so we’re curious as to why he is dropping down in weight. It’s possible the UFC gave him an ultimatum. Machado is 0-2 so far in the promotion with defeats to Mick Parkin and Don’Tale Mayes. The loss to Mayes was not a good look what-so-ever. Mayes is universally known as a gate-keeper for the lower end of the division. The matchmakers probably offered Machado one last chance to save his contract by going down to light heavyweight.
Brendson Ribeiro is the prototypical light heavyweight with a long frame. He has a massive reach of eighty one inches. Ribeiro averages 2.20 takedowns per fight to go with 3.08 strikes per minute. It’ll be interesting to see if he tries to take down Machado. The two areas of concern with Ribeiro are his stamina and volume. Machado lands considerably more strikes on average and Ribeiro tends to slow down in the later portion of his fights.
Machado’s size and volume should propel him to victory. He’ll also have the additional motivation of fighting in front of family and friends. Though Machado is Brazilian-born, he resides in Canada.
Betting Strategy: The fight starts round two as a parlay piece and Machado on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
12. Derrick Lewis vs. Jhonata Diniz
- Heavyweight 265 lbs -
Prediction: Derrick "The Black Beast" Lewis by Round 2 TKO/KO
This match has all the makings for a highlight finish. They both carry incredible power in their hands. Combined, thirty of their thirty six career wins are by knockout. Consequently, they have win-finish-rates of 85.7% and 87.5% respectively.
The reason we are going with Derrick Lewis is because of his experience. This will mark his forty-first pro fight whereas Jhonata Diniz is making his ninth walk into the cage. Lewis has faced the best in the world and he’s battle-tested. There are plenty of reasons to like Diniz as well. He’s younger, undefeated and has a speed advantage. All that considered, we’re going with the “Black Beast” to teach the young buck a lesson.
Betting Strategy: The fight ends by TKO/KO as a parlay piece.
13. Rose Namajunas vs. Erin Blanchfield
- Flyweight 125 lbs -
Prediction: Rose “Thug” Namajunas by Split/Majority Decision
The outcome of this bout all comes down to what version of Rose Namajunas shows up. If it’s the championship version of her, we love her chances of earning the dub. If it’s the Namajunas that fought Carla Esparza, we are running for the hills. Does she have the goods to win this fight? Absolutely! Has she faced the better competition? 100%! But, can you really depend on Rose try-to-stay-as-safe-as-possible-Namajunas.
Erin Blanchfield ran into a roadblock back in the spring when she dropped a five-round decision to Manon Fiorot. To say the least, Blanchfield’s weaknesses were exposed in that match. Blanchfield is one-dimensional and she can be easily overpowered by fighters like Fiorot. Blanchfield’s most significant wins are over JJ Aldrich, an aging Andrade, Miranda Maverick and a former UFC fighter (Taila Santos). Long story short, Blanchfield’s strength of schedule doesn’t size-up to Namajunas. Once again though, the Namajunas that knocked out Weili Zhang and Joanna Jedrzejczyk seems long gone.
Betting on Rose Namajunas is like playing Russian Roulette. In other words, it’s not a game you want to play.
Betting Strategy: The fight starts round five as a parlay piece, the fight goes to decision as a parlay piece and the fight ends in split/majority decision as an individual wager.
14. Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi
- Flyweight 125 lbs -
Prediction: Brandon "The Assassin Baby" Moreno by Decision
Brandon Moreno has participated in several memorable battles during his UFC tenure. He is fresh off a round five split decision loss to Royval. Prior to that, Moreno dropped a split decision to Alexandre Pantoja. Moreno has been to four split/majority decisions in his last eleven bouts. Coincidently, Amir Albazi is coming off a split as well. The key to victory for Moreno is to avoid unnecessary damage. At times, Moreno is willing to eat too many punches to land his own shots.
Albazi is riding a six-fight winning streak. In eighteen total fights, Albazi has never been finished. Fourteen of his seventeen wins are inside the distance with the bulk of them by submission. One area that Albazi could improve upon is his striking volume. Albazi lands only 2.80 strikes per minute which is fairly low for a flyweight. Moreno isn’t the highest output guy himself but he averages 3.87 strikes per minute.
We’re going with Moreno because of his championship experience, durability and edge in volume. Regardless of who wins, expect a back and forth war where they both have moments.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 2.5 rounds as a parlay piece, the fight ends in split/majority decision as a parlay piece and Moreno by decision as an individual wager.
Spreadsheet & Film Library
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Video Breakdown
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