UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas II
Full Card Preview
The UFC returns after a four-week winter break. Mackenzie Dern is looking to avenge her loss to Amanda Ribas in the main event. Other notable matches include Chris Curtis versus Roman Kopylov and Abdul Alhassan against Cesar Almeida. In total, this card consists of 14 bouts with athletes representing 13 nations.
Tune in to ESPN+ at 6:00 PM (ET) this Saturday to catch all the action.
— Prelim Card —
1. Nurullo Aliev vs. Yanal Ashmouz
- Lightweight 155 lbs -
Prediction: Nurullo "Tajik Eagle" Aliev by Decision
Nurullo Aliev (9-0) averages 3.06 takedowns per fight and pushes an active pace. The two biggest questions with him are how will he perform against other strong grapplers and will his finish rate improve? He narrowly won his last fight by majority decision. It’s only a matter of time before he ends up on the wrong side of a close decision.
Yanal Ashmouz exploded onto the scene with a round one knockout over Sam Patterson at UFC 286 as a significant underdog. Ashmouz also earned a decision win over Trevor Peek. Peek gassed out as usual. And, the Patterson knockout may have been more about good fortune than skill. Bottom line, we aren’t sold on Ashmouz.
Any fighter that depends on the judges to win fights is terrifying from a betting perspective. Aliev should win the fight but it may be much closer than expected.
Betting Strategy: Aliev by decision as an individual wager and the fight ends in a split/majority decision as an individual wager.
2. Viktoria Dudakova vs. Fatima Kline
- Women’s Strawweight 115 lbs -
Prediction: Fatima The “Archangel" Kline by Decision
Fatima Kline has a decorated grappling background. She ran into the buzz-saw that is Jasmine Jasudavicious in her last outing. It’s a reminder that elite grappling doesn’t always transfer to MMA. It’s not to say that Kline won’t make improvements or that her grappling is fraudulent. Jasudavicious is on a three-fight winning streak and she recently dismantled Ariane Lipski.
Viktoria Dudakova is coming off a split decision loss to Sam Hughes. Hughes has a knack for derailing prospects so the loss to Hughes isn’t the end of the world. Dudakova did some good things against Hughes and she also made a few critical mistakes. Much like Kline, Dudakova’s takedown defense is a weak spot. Pound for pound, we do give the grappling edge to Kline.
Combined, they have a 63% win-finish-rate and neither of them has ever been finished. MMA math is not an exact science but distance-related props should prevail. Regardless of how wide the odds are in favor of Kline, film study and fighter stats say otherwise. A close decision shouldn’t surprise anyone.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes to decision as a parlay piece and the fight ends in a split/majority decision as an individual wager.
3. Magomed Gadzhivasulov vs. Bruno Lopes
- Light Heavyweight 205 lbs -
Prediction: Magomed “MG” Gadzhivasulov by Round 3 TKO/KO
Magomed Gadzhivasulov enters the weekend with a perfect 9-0 record. He won his first UFC fight last summer by decision over Brendson Ribeiro. It marked the third fight in a row for Gadzhivasulov that went to decision. Lopes is pretty good on the ground so Gadzhivasulov needs to be mindful during the grappling exchanges. Gadzhivasulov would be wise to utilize his reach advantage to touch up Lopes and to set up clean takedowns.
Bruno Lopes is a powerful light heavyweight with a balanced attack. He can hold his own anywhere the fight takes place. The only blemish on his resume was a flash knockout on Contender Series. Lopes redeemed himself on the most recent season of Contender Series by scoring a round two knockout.
Gadzhivasulov lands 3.30 strikes per minute compared to 5.29 for Lopes. Meanwhile, Gadzhivasulov averages 5.50 takedowns per fight compared to 0.00 for Lopes. Fighter statistics don’t always tell the full story but these numbers are pretty straightforward. Gadzhivasulov is going to mix in some wrestling in hopes of obtaining position control. Lopes is tasked with keeping it standing. Regardless of who walks away victorious, we don’t see this going the distance.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT go to decision as a parlay piece.
4. Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Nicolle Caliari
- Women’s Flyweight 125 lbs -
Prediction: Nicolle Caliari by Decision
Ernesta Kareckaite earned her UFC stripes via the Contender Series in 2023. Her last five fights have all gone to decision, three of which ended in split decision. Kareckaite averages 12.27 strikes per minute so she has no problem letting her hands go. The downside to her striking is that she lacks power. Kareckaite could find success on the feet because she’s much longer than Caliari. It’s vital for Kareckaite to keep the fight standing to give herself the best chance to win.
Nicolle Caliari is also a Contender Series alum that earned her UFC contract with a round one submission win on the show. All eight of Caliari’s wins have been inside the distance. She is especially effective on the mat. Without question, Caliari needs to scrape Kareckaite to the ground to find success. Kickboxing with a high volume striker that has a massive size advantage makes no sense for Caliari. Keep in mind, Caliari’s last three wins were by submission. Though Kareckaite has never been submitted, her long frame could make it easier for Caliari to snatch an arm or secure a rear naked choke.
Betting Strategy: The fight ends in a split/majority decision as an individual wager and Caliari on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
5. Andreas Gustafsson vs. Preston Parsons
- Welterweight 170 lbs -
Prediction: Andreas "Bane" Gustafsson by Round 3 TKO/KO
Andreas Gustafsson is an absolute terror inside the cage. He employs a dirty-boxing style that is backed up by an endless gas tank. His game plan wears on his enemies and eventually breaks them. At 33 years old, Gustafsson realizes that he doesn’t have any time to waste. Expect Gustafsson to employ a furious pace that tests the will of Parsons.
Preston Parsons is a good overall fighter with limited finishing ability. In some ways, he’s a bit of an overachiever. Both of Parsons wins in the UFC were by decision and he hasn’t registered a finish in four years. Trying to outpoint an aggressive fighter like Gustafsson is not recommended. Unless Parsons finishes Gustafsson, he’s going to get drowned by his pace.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT go to decision as a parlay piece and Gustafsson on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
6. Thiago Moises vs. Trey Ogden
- Lightweight 155 lbs -
Prediction: Thiago Moises by Decision
Trey Ogden is an intelligent fighter with high-level Jiu Jitsu. His last five fights have gone the distance. The key to success for Ogden is securing top control and setting up submissions. Even if he doesn’t get the actual submission, Ogden can win parts of a round by simply pursuing submissions. While the fight is standing, Ogden will enjoy a slight height and reach advantage. He lands 3.38 strikes per minute compared to only 2.47 strikes per minute for Moises.
Thiago Moises is in the midst of the roughest stretch of his career. He’s 3-4 over his last seven and he was finished three times over that period. His strength of schedule is impressive. At the same time, he usually comes up short against elite fighters. Moreover, it’s hard to forget the beatings he took against Joel Alvarez and Benoit Saint-Denis. Moises has the tools to win this match. But, his recent performances are reason for concern.
Betting Strategy: The fight ends by submission as an individual wager and Moises on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
7. Marco Tulio vs. Ihor Potieria
- Middleweight 185 lbs -
Prediction: Marco "Matuto" Tulio by Round 2 TKO/KO
Of Ihor Potieria’s 7 career losses, he’s been finished 5 times. And, Marco Tulio was finished in his only loss. This fight screams of violence and the unders should hit. Potieria has a gigantic heart but he’s very reckless.
Though we like Tulio’s chances of getting his hand raised, Potieria is the sort of mutant that you don’t feel comfortable picking against. He’s dangerous until someone puts him away. Tulio is the rightful betting favorite but Potieria is more than capable of pulling off the upset.
Betting Strategy: The fight does not go to decision as a parlay piece and the fight ends by TKO/KO as a parlay piece.
8. Jose Johnson vs. Felipe Bunes
- Flyweight 125 lbs -
Prediction: Jose "Lobo Solitario" Johnson by Decision
Jose Johnson broke into the UFC via the Contender Series two years ago. Since then, he’s gone 1-2 in the promotion. Johnson’s long frame offers him several inches of height and reach over most of his opponents. He does his best work at range where he can take advantage of his reach. Johnson’s submission over Chad Anheliger was only the third of his career. Meanwhile, he’s been submitted several times himself. 8 of Johnson’s 16 wins are by knockout which may lead some people to think he is a power-puncher. Yet, he hasn’t scored a knockout in his four UFC fights.
Coincidently, Felipe Bunes fought on the first UFC fight card of 2024. Unfortunately, things didn’t go as planned. Joshua Van spoiled Bunes’s promotional debut by grinding him up on the ground. A glance at Bunes’s resume makes you wonder how he made his way into the UFC in the first place. Two fights prior to signing with the UFC he won a split decision over a 10-6 journeyman. Taking a year between fights as a mid 30’s flyweight raises additional questions about his commitment to his craft.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds as a parlay piece and Johnson on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
— Main Card —
9. Punahele Soriano vs. Uros Medic
- Welterweight 170 lbs -
Prediction: Uros “The Doctor” Medic by Decision
Punahele Soriano is a former wrestler with loads of power. When he connects with an overhand, the target usually crumbles. Soriano’s MMA wrestling is average and he fails to keep opponents on the mat. Maybe the biggest weakness for Soriano is his cardio. He slows down considerably at the halfway point. In summary, Soriano is early knockout or bust.
Uros Medic is a Serbian kickboxer known for his active pace and high finish rate (100% WFR). He lands 5.51 strikes per minute compared to 3.96 for Soriano. In the event this goes the distance, you can see how Medic’s volume could be the difference-maker. Moreover, when Soriano gets tired he looks extremely sloppy. Notably, Medic has never been knocked out but he has been submitted twice. Fortunately for Medic, Soriano isn’t a submission threat. In eighteen total fights, amateur included, Soriano has two submissions.
Zebras don’t change their stripes and we’ve seen nothing from Soriano to suggest he’s changed his. Until Soriano proves that his cardio is up to speed, we’re inclined to fade him against almost anyone.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds as a parlay piece and Medic on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
10. Austin Bashi vs. Christian Rodriguez
- Featherweight 145 lbs -
Prediction: Christian “CeeRod” Rodriguez by Decision
Austin Bashi is an athletic submission fighter with quick hands. He averages a mere 18.18 takedowns per three rounds. At only 23 years of age, Bashi has plenty of time to round out his game. He’s an effective grappler but his striking needs work. Specifically, he eats too many punches. A talented kickboxer with solid takedown defense would give him troubles.
Christian Rodriguez is coming off a submission loss against Julian Erosa. It was the first time he’s been finished in thirteen pro fights. Most fans remember Rodriguez for his upset win over Raul Rosas at UFC 287. Rosas entered that fight as a -250 odds favorite and ended up getting dragged for the better part of three rounds. Rodriguez is formidable on the ground and his striking is on point. If he can hold his own on the mat while forcing Bashi to box for extended periods of time, Rodriguez has a realistic path to victory.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds as a parlay piece and the fight ends by submission as an individual wager.
11. Chris Curtis vs. Roman Kopylov
- Middleweight 185 lbs -
Prediction: Roman Kopylov by Decision
Chris Curtis is a powerful striker with tons of experience. He has impressive knockout wins over Joaquin Buckley and Brendan Allen. Curtis is 2-3-1 over his last six which included back to back split decisions in his last two fights. Curtis is a slow-pace boxer with no ground offense. Curtis struggles with opponents that won’t stand in the pocket with them. He does a poor job of cutting off the cage. Due to Curtis’s limited volume, he’s always in danger of falling behind on the scorecards.
Roman Kopylov is a Russian kickboxer fresh off a split decision win over Cesar Almeida. In his last fight he opted to take Almeida to the ground. It was a new wrinkle for Kopylov who typically doesn’t incorporate wrestling. Curtis’s takedown defense (87%) will make it difficult for Kopylov to get him down. The more realistic path to victory for Kopylov is outpointing Curtis.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds as a parlay piece and Kopylov on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
12. César Almeida vs. Abdul Alhassan
- Middleweight 185 lbs -
Prediction: Abdul "Judo Thunder" Alhassan by Decision
Cesar Almeida is part of the recent exodus of kickboxers moving over to MMA. Almeida is directly tied to Alex Pereira because they fought three times prior to the UFC. All three of those fights went to decision. Almeida’s endurance needs work but his durability is unquestionable. If he could withstand the power of Pereira then he can handle anything Alhassan has to offer.
Abdul Alhassan had a frustrating result in his last fight. Alhassan was on the verge of finishing Cody Brundage. Unfortunately, the fight was ruled a no contest due to accidental strikes to the back of the head by Alhassan. Brundage weaseled out of a loss, period. Alhassan is 2-5-1 in his last 8 fights. He lost to Jacob Malkoun as a -310 odds favorite, to Mounir Lazzez as a -350 odds favorite and to Khaos Williams as a -210 odds favorite. Though we’re picking Alhassan to win, he has a concerning track record. With all due respect to Alhassan, we want no parts of betting on him at nearly a three-to-one favorite.
Almeida averages 4.12 strikes per minute compared to 3.47 for Alhassan. Neither of them does much wrestling so the majority of this fight should play out on the feet. A knockout finish could be in the cards or we might be in store for a three round war.
Betting Strategy: The fight starts round two as a parlay piece and the fight ends by TKO/KO as an individual wager.
13. Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Carlston Harris
- Welterweight 170 lbs -
Prediction: Carlston "Moçambique" Harris by Decision
Santiago Ponzinibbio is 1-4 in his last five and in danger of getting released. In 38 professional fights, Ponzinibbio has 22 finishes. He’s been on a cold streak lately with a 2-5 mark over his last seven. Carlston Harris is coming off a round one knockout loss so he’s also trying to get things back on track. Harris is 2-2 over his last four which included two knockout losses. At 37 and 38 years old respectively, father time is also a factor.
There are red flags on both sides of the aisle. The only reason we’re siding with Harris is that he is winning at a higher percentage over his last few fights. Expect the unexpected.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds as a parlay piece, Harris on the moneyline as a parlay piece and the fight ends in a split/majority decision.
Did You Know? Ponzinibbio began as a kickboxer before transitioning to MMA. Because Argentina didn’t have any MMA gyms at the time, he moved to Brazil as a teenager where he lived the first five months in a tent on a beach while training at nearby gyms.
14. Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas
- Strawweight 115 lbs -
Prediction: Amanda Ribas by Decision
MacKenzie Dern is known for her grappling and she has the hardware to back it up. Anytime Dern is in an advantageous ground position, she’s a submission threat. If Dern can’t get the fight to the ground, effective strikers pick her apart. Dern’s striking is ineffective and off balance. Additionally, her takedown technique needs work. Dern literally throws herself on the ground as she fatigues. In essence, Dern is a one-dimensional fighter that needs success on the mat or she has no plan b.
Amanda Ribas is 7-4 in the UFC with notable wins over Viviane Araujo, Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba. Ribas may not have the grappling credentials as Dern, but she’ll have a distinct advantage on the feet. Ribas most recently came up short in a five-round decision loss to Rose Namajunas. If Ribas produces a similar performance, it’ll probably be enough to defeat Dern.
Ribas averages more strikes landed and more takedowns. Simply put, she’s the busier fighter. It’s the reason Ribas won their initial encounter. Unless Dern locks up an early submission, Ribas will get her hand raised again.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 2.5 rounds as a parlay piece, Dern by submission as an individual wager, the fight ends in a split/majority decision as an individual wager and Ribas on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
Spreadsheet & Film Library
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