UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
Preview & Predictions
After a few weeks on the road, the UFC is back in Las Vegas for the next Fight Night card (aka UFC Vegas 82). The main event features a middleweight clash between two vets, Brendan Allen and Paul Craig. The winner keeps their name relevant in a division packed with talent. For the fans who enjoy grappling, Jordan Leavitt and Chase Hooper will be center stage to see who is the superior Jiu Jitsu practitioner. This card has a little bit of everything and loads of young talent. Keep in mind, it’s an early start time of 11:00 AM local time and 2:00 PM in New York City.
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— Prelim Card —
1. Charles Johnson (+130) vs. Rafael Estevam (-155)
Flyweight 125 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Rafael “Macapa” Estevam by Decision (+150)
Estevam is another of many Contender Series (DWCS) alumni on this card. Unfortunately, Estevam hasn’t fought in over a year. His last fight was canceled due to a botched weight cut. It’s an indication that he is either not committed to a disciplined training plan or that he had some type of health-related issue. Either way, we’ll have our eyes peeled when he hits the scale on Friday. Estevam averages over four takedowns per fight so we’re expecting him to put Johnson on his back early and often. Johnson doesn’t do well off his back and he also struggles to get up. Estevam has an easy path to victory if he takes down Johnson.
Charles Johnson is a tough fighter to figure out. There are moments when he looks impressive and then there are times where he looks flat and disinterested. He’s trying to shake a two-fight losing streak after dropping bouts to Cody Durden and Ode Osbourne. Johnson talked a big game leading up to the Durden fight. Then, he went out and laid a goose egg. It’s not the first time he’s failed to rise to the occasion. He lacks urgency and displays poor fighter IQ. As a result, he frequently ends up on the wrong side of decisions. It’s difficult to win fights on your back foot with limited volume. Johnson is 2-3 in the UFC with a controversial split decision win over Zhumagulov and a round one knockout over Jimmy Flick. Flick is on a two fight losing streak and hasn’t had his hand raised in three years. Zhumagulov is 1-6 in his last seven fights and was recently cut from the promotion. Bottom line, Johnson hasn’t notched a quality win. The one bright spot about Johnson is his durability. In twenty-eight fights, he has never been finished.
Betting Strategy: Over 1.5 rounds (-450), the fight goes the distance (-200), Johnson by split decision (+1100) and Estevam by split decision (+700).
2. Nikolas Mota (-130) vs. Trey Ogden (+110)
Lightweight 155 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Nikolas “Iron” Mota by Split Decision (+270)
Ogden is a gym owner, head coach and also a client. He is truly a jack of all trades. Which one is he the master of? Up till now, his performances in the cage have been vanilla. He gives off James Krause kinda vibes…..smart fighter but has limitations in the fight game. Ogden will be taller and longer by a few inches. In theory, he could touch up Mota from distance. The length of Ogden will probably be more significant if the fight gets to the ground. Three of Ogden’s last four wins are by submission. And, more than half of his career wins are by submission. Mota has defended every single takedown attempt against him in the UFC so it won’t be easy for Ogden to get him on the ground. Durability is definitely a problem area for Mota. He’s been TKO/KO’ed in four of his five losses. Ogden averages 3.42 strikes per minute and he has never knocked out an opponent. In essence, he lacks punching power. Considering how tough it is to get down Mota, we’re very concerned that Ogden could fall behind on the cards because of his inability to initiate a ground fight.
Mota is another Contender Series product. At thirty years old, he is four years the junior of Ogden. This will be Mota’s second fight this year but he’s only fought three times in the last four years. He’s 1-2 in the UFC with his only win over an opponent that is no longer with the promotion. Like Ogden, he isn’t a high volume striker. Mota averages only 3.40 strikes per minute. And, he hasn’t registered a takedown in the UFC. All that said, he can win this fight. Assuming it plays out as a kickboxing match, it’s up to each of them to find their spots. Unlike Ogden, Mota does have a handful of knockouts on his resume. On the other hand, Ogden has never been KO’ed.
The betting spots we like the most for this bout are distance related. Depending on the odds, Ogden by submission might be worth a play. The same goes for the split decision props. If Ogden doesn’t pull off a submission in the early portion of the fight, this is likely heading to the scorecards.
Betting Strategy: Over 2.5 rounds (-130), Ogden by split decision (+1200), Mota by split decision (+1100) and Ogden by submission (+350). All nine of Ogden’s submissions occurred within the first two rounds.
3. Lucie Pudilova (+145) vs. Ailin Perez (-175)
Bantamweight 135 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Lucie Pudilova by Decision (+240)
Perez lost her promotional debut by submission to Stephanie Egger. She bounced back with a decision win over Ashlee Evans-Smith earlier this year. Keep in mind, Evans-Smith hasn’t had her hand raised in five years and she is 1-5 in her last six fights. Perez is an average wrestler with okay punching power. At times, she can show signs of fatigue. She needs to make significant improvements if she wants to stick around the promotion for a while.
Pudilova is in her second tour of duty with the UFC. Her loss to Joselyn Edwards earlier this year was a reminder of her limitations. Pudilova was unable to initiate enough grappling and Edwards got the best of her at range. Considering that Edwards is barely holding onto her roster spot, this was not a good look for Pudilova. Pudilova lacks the skills to make much traction at this point in her career. All that being said, this is a favorable matchup for her. We’ve documented some of our concerns with Perez. Something else we’ve noticed about Perez is that she appears to care more about getting attention for her physical appearance than the actual fight. Some fighters can get a little too caught up in their walkout performances and post fight dancing instead of focusing on the actual fight. In the case of Pudilova, her only concern is winning. If it comes down to mental toughness, we’re inclined to edge the side of Pudilova.
Betting Strategy: Over 2.5 rounds (-280), the fight goes the distance (-250), Pudilova on the moneyline, Pudilova by split decision (+1000) and Perez by split decision (+600).
4. Lucas Alexander (-500) vs. Jeka Saragih (+380)
Featherweight 145 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Lucas “The Lion” Alexander by Decision (+200)
Saragih earned his UFC contract via the Road to UFC in 2022. He made his promotional debut earlier this year against Anshul Jubli. You might remember Jubli from UFC 294 in Abu Dhabi. He’s the Indian fighter that was finished by Mike Breeden. In Saragih’s fight against Jubli he looked undersized and outmatched. Considering how green Jubli is, it’s concerning that Saragih was completely dominated by him. Saragih will be giving up a few inches of height and reach in this match. His striking is raw and lacks power. Additionally, Saragih’s takedown defense is not good (60%). He compounds the problem by not being able to get off his back. Because of Saragih’s size disadvantages, he has a hard time getting into striking range.
Alexander is coming off a decision win over Steven Peterson after losing his UFC debut to Joanderson Brito (2022). It’s important to note that Alexander was a late replacement against Brito. Alexander does a nice job attacking the lead leg and using footwork to avoid danger. His grappling is a work in progress whereas striking looks natural for him. He lands 5.05 strikes per minute while absorbing 1.76 strikes per minute. Prior to the UFC, Alexander bounced around a few smaller promotions. Most of Saragih’s fights have been against lower-level fighters that couldn’t cut it in a major promotion. To be fair, the same could be said about Alexander’s resume. The biggest critique we have of Alexander is his lack of urgency. He’s a defensive fighter that avoids danger at all costs. In some ways, he fights similarly to Caio Borralho.
Alexander is far from a finished product and his grappling needs improvement. Regardless, he is far-and-away a better fighter than Saragih. The UFC is affording opportunities to young fighters from the far east in an attempt to broaden their fan base. Naturally, some of those prospects won’t translate into actual UFC fighters. Saragih might be in that unfortunate category.
Betting Strategy: The fight starts round two (-250) and Alexander as a parlay piece.
5. Mick Parkin (-395) vs. Caio Machado (+310)
Heavyweight 265 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Mick Parkin by Decision (+175)
Machado is making his first walk into the UFC cage after earning a contract on this season of Contender Series. He’s a natural heavyweight with a 6’4” frame. Machado has a balanced skill set that includes effective grappling. For whatever reason, he didn’t display his ground skills on Contender Series. As a result, the fight went to a lackluster decision. Machado needs to summon his inner-wrestler if he has a chance against Parkin. Parkin isn’t going to keep it standing for long. The only reasonable path to victory for Machado is to submit Parkin. We’re concerned that Machado will fall behind on the scorecards if it goes the distance. He is a low volume striker with questionable power.
Parkin is cut from the same mold as Curtis Blaydes. He’ll take the fight to the ground at some point early in the fight and he’ll return his opponent to the mat when they get up. Parkin drains fighters with top pressure and activity. While the fight is standing, Parkin will be the fighter moving forward. The moment Parkin sees an opening for a takedown, he’s going to jump all over Machado.
Six of Parkin’s seven wins are inside the distance. Four of Machado’s last five wins were inside the distance. Yet, they both went to a decision in their last fight. As they move up the ladder, we suspect their finish rates will go down. Notably, neither of them has been finished.
Betting Strategy: Over 1.5 rounds (-210), the fight starts round two (-330) and Parkin as a parlay piece.
6. Chris L. Duncan (-600) vs. Denis Tiuliulin (+440)
Middleweight 185 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Chris “CLD” Duncan by Round 1 TKO/KO (+165)
This fight was a late addition to the card. Duncan was originally scheduled to face Cesar Almeida. Tiuliulin is filling in on just days notice. We liked Duncan against Almeida and we like him even more against an aging Tiuliulin. Tiuliulin has been finished in four of his last six fights, including a round one knockout loss this past August.
Duncan has legit potential to break the top ten in the middleweight division. He has fluid striking and legit knockout power. With less than ten fights as a professional, he is just scratching the surface. For all of our critiques of Tiuliulin, Duncan does need to be mindful of his power. Nine of Tiuliulin’s eleven wins are by TKO/KO. If Duncan can go three rounds with Petrosyan, we aren’t concerned about Tiuliulin clipping him.
The lines for this fight were not out a the time of this article. We expect Duncan will be a significant favorite.
Betting Strategy: Under 2.5 rounds (-245), the fight does NOT go the distance (-300), the fight ends by TKO/KO (-190, Duncan as a parlay piece and Duncan inside the distance (-190).
7. Chad Anheliger (+170) vs. Jose Johnson (-205)
Bantamweight 135 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Chad “The Monster” Anheliger by Decision (+400)
Anheliger made his promotional debut early last year with a round three TKO/KO over Jesse Strader. Strader is no longer on the UFC roster. Anheliger dropped his last fight by decision to Alatengheili. He delivered a solid performance but it wasn’t enough to sway the judges in his favor. He allowed Alatengheili to lead the pace which put Anheliger in a defensive mode. Anheliger is an awkward fighter that moves a little like Jiri Prochazka. He never gives his opponent the same look and continuously switches his lead leg. Our biggest concern with Anheliger is that he lacks volume. Moreover, Anheliger fails to stand his ground which results in fighters walking him down. Though he has four TKO’s in his last five wins. We aren’t sold on Anheliger’s punching power. The key to victory for Anheliger is to increase his volume and to use his footwork to circle away from danger.
Johnson was a two-time contestant on Contender Series. Prior to the UFC, Johnson fought for Fury FC and Valor. There are some obvious reasons to like Johnson in this spot. He’s younger, has a size advantage and he’s faced superior competition. On the flipside, his cardio is an issue at times and he can be taken down with ease. We could see how Anheliger’s quirky style and strong stamina could create problems for Johnson. At the very least, cardio will be a factor in the later rounds. Johnson gets especially sloppy when he starts to fatigue.
Betting Strategy: Over 1.5 rounds (-250) and the fight goes the distance (+100).
8. Jonathan Pearce (-130) vs. Joanderson Brito (+110)
Featherweight 145 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Jonathan “JSP” Pearce by Decision (+300)
This could end up being one of the best fights of the card. They are both in the midst of winning streaks and they employ similar game plans. Brito has quality wins over Andre Fili and Diego Lopes whereas Pearce’s best wins are over Darren Elkins, Christian Rodrigues and Omar Morales. Pearce is an effective grappler but he needs to be mindful of Brito’s submission skills. While the fight is standing, Pearce will have a volume advantage. That could be a deciding factor if the fight goes the distance. Pearce lands over six strikes per minute compared to Brito’s 4.02 strikes per minute. They both like to mix in ground fighting. Pearce averages 5.74 takedowns per fight compared to 3.89 for Brito.
Betting Strategy: Over 1.5 rounds (-155) and the fight goes the distance (+180).
— Main Card —
9. Uros Medic (-105) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-115)
Welterweight 170 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Uros “Doctor” Medic by Round 2 TKO/KO (+600)
Medic’s original opponent, Jonny Parsons, withdrew just four days before the fight. Hence, Myktybek Orolbai is making his promotional debut under challenging circumstances.
Medic has excellent size for this division and he’ll have a noticeable size advantage over Orolbai. Because of the late change in opponents, we’re expecting Medic to take his time for the first minute or so. Once he gets a feel for Orolbai, he’ll pick up the pace. Keep in mind, all nine of Medic’s wins are inside the distance. In our opinion, this is a step down in competition for him.
Orolbai is on a six-fight winning streak and he recently fought for LFA (3-0). Orolbai hails from Kyrgyzstan, Shevchenko’s homeland, which has a growing MMA community. Based on the limited film we watched on Orolbai, he prefers to operate at close range and will initiate grappling exchanges often. Ideally, he wants to put opponents on their back foot until he can scrape them to the mat. Nine of Orolbai’s eleven wins were inside the distance. His only loss was by decision to a 13-0 Russian. The key to victory for Orolbai is to get this to the ground. Medic’s long frame and variety of strikes will give Orolbai troubles.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT go the distance (-225), Medic inside the distance (+175) and Medic as a parlay piece.
10. Amanda Ribas (-225) vs. Luana Pinheiro (+185)
Strawweight 115 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Amanda Ribas by Round 3 TKO/KO (+4000)
Pinheiro is coming off a split decision win over Waterson-Gomez earlier this year after not fighting at all in 2022. She earned her UFC contract via the Contender Series in 2020. She’s fortunate that Markos landed an illegal strike against her which resulted in a win for Pinheiro. Pinheiro lacks punching power and gets sloppy during grappling exchanges. Up till now, she’s been able to get by with her natural talent. As she steps up the ranks, her weak spots will be magnified. Specifically, we have questions about her durability. Markos roughed her up pretty bad and Ribas is a proven roughneck.
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