UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2
Preview & Predictions
UFC 311 marks the promotion's third visit to Inglewood, California and its first since UFC 232 (2018). Islam Makhachev is defending his title against Arman Tsarukyan in the main event. They previously met in 2019 where Makhachev won by decision. Dvalishvili will make his first title defense against the undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov in the co-main event. Other notable names on the card include Jiri Prochazka, Kevin Holland and Renato Moicano. In total, 14 bouts are scheduled with fighters representing 13 countries.
— Prelim Card —
1. Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Clayton Carpenter
- Flyweight 125 lbs -
Prediction: Clayton “Concrete” Carpenter by Split Decision
Tagir Ulanbekov is a grapple-heavy Russian that employs a traditional Dagestani fighting style. He secures 3.71 takedowns per fight and 8 of his 15 wins are by submission. Ulanbekov’s striking is a weak spot for him. He absorbs more strikes than he lands and lacks punching power. In 18 pro fights, Ulanbekov has only one knockout victory. Consequently, Ulanbekov’s win condition is narrowed down to submission or decision.
Clayton Carpenter is a young prospect with an undefeated record. Both of his UFC win’s were by rear naked choke and half (4) of his professional wins are by submission. Not only does Carpenter average more strikes landed per minute he gets hit significantly less. Over the course of three close rounds, Carpenter’s volume alone could push him over the edge.
They employ similar styles and neither of them has ever been finished. A close decision appears imminent.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds as a parlay piece and the fight ends in a split/majority decision as an individual wager.
2. Ricky Turcios vs. Bernardo Sopaj
- Bantamweight 135 lbs -
Prediction: Bernardo “The Lion King” Sopaj by Decision
Ricky Turcios is 2-2 in the promotion with both of his victories by split decision. He dropped a decision to Zahabi and was submitted by Rosas Jr. Turcios reputation is on the line this weekend. Another lame performance could get him released. The UFC brass have no patience for fighters who don’t look for finishes and skate by on close decisions.
Bernardo Sopaj is a Swedish prospect with a balanced skill set. 10 his 11 wins are inside the distance with the bulk of those finishes in the 1st round. He lost his UFC debut in March of last year. Sopaj had some success early on but eventually succumbed to a flying knee in the 3rd. It’s important to note that Sopaj was a late-notice replacement for that fight. Now that he’s coming in with a full camp and won’t have rookie jitters, we’re expecting a sharper and more confident version of Sopaj.
Betting Strategy: The fight starts round 2 as a parlay piece and the fight goes to split/majority decision.
3. Rinya Nakamura vs. Muin Gafurov
- Bantamweight 135 lbs -
Prediction: Rinya "Hybrid" Nakamura by Decision
Muin Gafurov has been up and down over his last eight matches. During that stretch he went 4-4 with a round one submission loss to Said Nurmagomedov. It marked the first time Gafurov has been finished. Are the recent struggles for Gafurov a result of his inadequacies as he moves up in competition or just a little growing pains? He’s only 28 years old so he has time to make improvements. Gafurov lands 3.03 strikes per minute to go with 1.95 takedowns per fight. On the flipside, Nakamura secures 3.72 takedowns per fight along with 3.53 strikes per minute. Not only is Nakamura the superior wrestler, he’s the more efficient striker as well.
Rinya Nakamura is an exciting Japanese prospect. Having begun wrestling at a young age, Nakamura's first notable accomplishment in the sport of freestyle wrestling was a bronze medal from the Cadet World Championships in 2011. The most remarkable achievement of his career came at the 2017 U23 World Championships, where he became the champion at 61 kilograms. Nakamura’s physicality and pace are what separates him from average fighters. Unless Gafurov shuts him down, Nakamura’s activity alone will guide him to victory.
Betting Strategy: The fight starts round 2 as a parlay piece and Nakamura on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
4. Karol Rosa vs. Ailin Perez
- Bantamweight 135 lbs -
Prediction: Ailin “Fiona” Perez by Decision
Karol Rosa has a history of facing tough competition. Her most recent fight was a victory over Pannie Kianzad in August 2024, which helped her bounce back from a previous loss to Irene Aldana in December 2023. Rosa, a Brazilian ranked 9th in the division, is known for her technical striking and Muay Thai background, providing her with a well-rounded skill set.
Ailin Perez has been on an impressive run, securing four consecutive victories since her debut loss to Stephanie Egger. Her latest win was a first-round submission against Darya Zheleznyakova at UFC Paris last year, which also earned her a spot in the UFC rankings. Known for her aggressive grappling and flamboyant personality, Perez is ranked 13th in the bantamweight division.
Combined, they have a 44% win-finish-rate. Rosa’s last 7 wins were by decision, 2 by split/majority decision. 3 of Perez’s last 4 wins were by decision. A close decision is expected.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes to decision as a parlay piece and the fight ends in a split/majority decision as an individual wager.
5. Grant Dawson vs. Diego Ferreira
- Lightweight 155 lbs -
Prediction: Grant “KGD” Dawson by Round 2 TKO/KO
Grant Dawson has quality wins over Damir Ismagulov, Julian Erosa and Mark Madsen. He sports a 82% win-finish-rate which is in large part due to his 13 submission wins. Dawson will shoot for takedowns until he gets the fight to the mat. Once he has his victim grounded, he does an excellent job of grinding them up. The only area of concern with Dawson is that he’s been knocked out in about 30 seconds on two occasions.
Diego Ferreira is an aging veteran that’s been with the promotion for over a decade. He turned back the clock with his knockout win over Mateusz Rebecki last summer. Ferreira entered that match as a +380 odds underdog. He’s a large underdog again this weekend. He needs to stay off his back to give himself a shot this weekend. Ferreira defends takedowns at a 60% rate with Dawson averaging 3.65 takedowns per fight.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT go to decision as a parlay piece.
6. Zach Reese vs. Sedriques Dumas
- Middleweight 185 lbs -
Prediction: Sedriques “The Reaper” Dumas by Round 1 TKO/KO
Zach Reese is fresh off of wins over Jose Medina and Julian Marquez. He is 2-1 in the UFC with his only against Cody Brundage. The loss to Brundage looks bad at first glance. It’s worth re-watching that bout to see how it unfolded. Ultimately, Brundage was very fortunate. Two areas that Reese has an advantage over Dumas is his striking volume and endurance. If he can drag Dumas to the later portion of the fight, he may be able to have his way with a fatigued Dumas.
Sedriques Dumas is a lethal kickboxer with underrated Jiu Jitsu. He punched his ticket into the UFC with a standing Guillotine choke on Contender Series. Dumas is a mixed bag and someone hard to figure out. So long as his stamina is on point, he is more than capable of beating Reese. Dumas has bonafide knockout power and Reese has been KO’d before.
Combined, they have a 100% loss-finish-rate. In other words, when they lose, they get finished.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT go to decision as a parlay piece.
7. Jailton Almeida vs. Serghei Spivac
- Heavyweight 265 lbs -
Prediction: Jailton "Malhadinho" Almeida by Round 2 Submission
Serghei Spivac is 8-4 in the UFC with respectable victories over Tai Tuivasa and Derrick Lewis. Spivac’s Jiu Jitsu makes him uniquely dangerous for a big man. 8 of his 17 wins are by submission. And, he averages 4.63 takedowns per fight. Spivac struggles when forced to operate on his feet for extended periods of time. If Spivac pulls off the upset, it’s more than likely a grappling mistake by Almeida which leads to a submission.
Jailton Almeida is a light heavyweight masquerading as a heavyweight. He tips the scale at 240 lbs which puts him at a significant weight disadvantage against natural heavyweights. He’s gotten away with the size disparity up till now by utilizing his speed and wrestling. Almeida averages 6.85 takedowns per fight. As long as the matchmakers continue booking him against middling heavyweights, he’ll continue winning at a high rate.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT go to decision as a parlay piece and the fight ends by submission as an individual wager.
8. Raoni Barcelos vs. Payton Talbott
- Bantamweight 135 lbs -
Prediction: Payton Talbott by Decision
This is the most lopsided fight on the card from a betting perspective. Raoni Barcelos might be on the downside of his career but he isn’t washed by any means. Furthermore, who has Payton Talbott defeated that warrants him being this big of a favorite over anyone? Lets not forget that Talbott went the distance with Reyes Cortez. The same Cortez who lost twice on Contender Series. Meanwhile, Barcelos has shared the octagon with killers like Umar Nurmagomedov and Timur Valiev.
Talbott is an exciting prospect with worlds of potential. He’s tall for the division, has legit power and his ground game is coming along. Barcelos represents the most accomplished opponent he’s ever faced. Talbott lands 8.38 strikes per minute compared to 5.22 for Barcelos. Though Talbott doesn’t have a takedown in the UFC, he has 90% takedown defense. Barcelos averages almost two takedowns per fight so Talbott’s takedown defense will be tested at some point.
Betting Strategy: The fight starts round 2 as a parlay piece and the fight ends in split/majority decision as an individual wager.
9. Billy Elekana vs. Bogdan Guskov
- Light Heavyweight 205 lbs -
Prediction: N/A
Due to time constraints, we were unable to publish a breakdown for this matchup. We apologize for the inconvenience.
Betting Strategy: N/A
— Main Card —
10. Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
- Middleweight 185 lbs -
Prediction: Reinier "The Dutch Knight” de Ridder by Decision
Reinier de Ridder is hoping to make it three in a row with a win over Kevin Holland. He finished his last two opponents which included his UFC debut last year against Gerald Meerschaert. The fact that Ridder was able to submit Meerschaert is an indication of how effective his Jiu Jitsu is. Ridder’s striking isn’t half bad but his grappling is what makes him special. 12 of his 18 wins are by submission. An obvious red flag with Ridder is that he was finished two times by Anatoly Malykhin.
Kevin Holland is one of the most experienced fighters on the roster. This bout will mark his 22nd under the UFC banner (13-9). As his UFC record reflects, Holland is inconsistent. Over his last 13 fights, he’s 5-7-1. Holland’s loss to Stephen Thompson was especially problematic because it highlighted his poor decision-making. Holland is an elite fighter when he’s focused and prepared. It all depends on what version of him shows up this weekend.
Combined, they have 21 submissions which is roughly half of their wins (47%). Reinier averages 6.39 takedowns per fight. At some point this fight will hit the ground. When it does, they are both live for a submission.
Betting Strategy: The fight ends by submission as an individual wager and the fight does NOT go to decision as a parlay piece.
11. Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano
- Lightweight 155 lbs -
Prediction: Renato "Money Moicano" Moicano by Round 2 TKO/KO
Renato Moicano (20-5-1) is riding a lot of momentum after his round stoppage of Benoit Saint-Denis last fall. Moicano was a sizable underdog in his last two fights which both resulted in second round finishes for him. With almost 30 fights under his belt, Moicano has a lot of experience. He’s 12-5 in the UFC with his most notable wins over BSD, Jalin Turner and Drew Dober. Moicano is capable of winning a marathon or ending it early. He’s known for his ability to fight through adversity. As a result, he has a lot of scar tissues from past wars. 10 of his 20 wins are by submission
Beneil Dariush is returning from a little over a year layoff after dropping back to back bouts to Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan. Everyone can understand the losses to championship-caliber opponents like Oliveira and Tsarukyan. But, getting knocked out in the first round of back to back fights is worrisome. A closer look at Dariush’s resume reveals that he’s been knocked out 5 times! Moreover, most of those knockouts were in the first round. Alexander Hernandez knocked him out in 42 seconds. Dariush would be wise to incorporate as much wrestling as possible to reduce his chances of getting his bell rung.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT go to decision as a parlay piece and Moicano inside the distance as an individual wager.
12. Jiří Procházka vs. Jamahal Hill
- Light Heavyweight 205 lbs -
Prediction: Jamahal “Sweet Dreams” Hill by Round 2 TKO/KO
Jiří Procházka is trying to get his career back on track after getting destroyed by Alex Pereira twice over his last three fights. In-between the Pereira fights, Procházka earned a second round knockout over Aleksandr Rakic. At times, Procházka’s unique style backfires on him. Because his hands are frequently low, he is often at risk of eating simple punches. Additionally, Procházka depends on head movement to avoid getting hit. Against elite strikers, like Jamahal Hill, Procházka has to execute the perfect game plan to avoid getting clipped.
Much like Procházka, Jamahal Hill had a meteoric rise to the light heavyweight title. And, just like Procházka he never successfully defended the strap. Hill received a lot of criticism about how he made excuses for his knockout loss to Pereira. Regardless, he has skills to give Procházka problems. Hill hits with more power, has better accuracy and he doesn’t get hit as flush as Procházka.
Procházka sports a 97% win-finish-rate to go with his 100% loss-finish-rate. Basically, Procházka is kill or be killed.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT go to decision as a parlay piece and the fight ends by TKO/KO as a parlay piece.
13. Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
- Bantamweight 135 lbs -
Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov by Decision
Merab Dvalishvili captured the bantamweight title with a unanimous decision win over Sean O'Malley at UFC 306. He's known for his relentless wrestling and cardio, holding an 11-fight winning streak going into this defense. Dvalishvili’s endurance is well documented and his fighter IQ is through the roof. He knows exactly what it takes to frustrate the enemy while also winning rounds. Dvalishvili is often overlooked because of his smaller stature and blue-collar fighting style. What he lacks in flashiness he makes up for with determination.
Umar Nurmagomedov has a perfect record of 18-0, including a significant victory over Cory Sandhagen, which positioned him as the No. 1 contender for the bantamweight title. He is related to Khabib Nurmagomedov, adding to the hype around his skills and potential. Nurmagomedov opened as the betting favorite and money continues to come in on him. Khabib has expressed confidence in Umar, suggesting that Merab might be nervous about this matchup due to the pressure of being a champion. Many fighters have praised Nurmagomedov's abilities, suggesting he has everything Khabib and Islam Makhachev had/have and more, predicting dominance over Dvalishvili.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 2.5 rounds as a parlay piece and the fight ends in split/majority decision as an individual wager.
14. Islam Makhachev vs. Armen Tsarukyan
- Lightweight 155 lbs -
Prediction: Islam Makhachev by Decision
Islam Makhachev (26-1) is the reigning UFC Lightweight Champion. He is on a remarkable 14-fight winning streak, including his title win against Charles Oliveira and three successful title defenses against Alexander Volkanovski (twice) and Dustin Poirier. He aims for a finish to prove his dominance, citing his ability to capitalize on Oliveira's near-finishes of Tsarukyan in their previous fight.
Arman Tsarukyan (22-3) is the number one ranked contender in the lightweight division. Tsarukyan has a record of 22-3. He earned his title shot with a split decision win over former champion Charles Oliveira. Since his loss to Makhachev in 2019, Tsarukyan has won nine of his last ten, showcasing significant improvement and resilience. Based on recent interviews, Tsarukyan believes he can exploit Makhachev's wrestling, which he thinks isn't as good as advertised.
Some see this as a close contest, with Tsarukyan's recent performances suggesting he could give Makhachev one of his toughest challenges yet. However, Makhachev's track record and title defenses make him the favorite in many analysts' eyes.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 2.5 rounds as a parlay piece and the fight ends in split/majority decision as an individual wager.
Spreadsheet & Film Library
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