The UFC heads to New York City this weekend with a collision of legends as heavyweight champion Jon Jones looks to defend his crown against former two-time champion Stipe Miocic. In the five-round co-main event, former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira battles Michael Chandler in a highly anticipated rematch. Bo Nickal is back in action as he puts his undefeated record on the line. In total, the card consists of twelve matches with fighters representing seven nations.
The early prelims start at 6:00 PM (ET) on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass. The main card is available on ESPN PPV at 9:00 PM (ET).
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— Prelim Card —
1. Veronica Hardy vs. Eduarda Moura
- Flyweight 125 lbs -
Prediction: Veronica Hardy by Decision
Eduarda Moura is coming off a split decision loss to Denise Gomes. Moura was effective early on but her endurance was problematic. She averages more than five takedowns per fight so you know she’s going to employ grappling. Moura also lands 3.09 strikes per minute which is pretty good for how much time she spends looking for submissions. Five of her ten wins are by submission and she won her UFC debut by submission. Keep in mind, Hardy has been sub’ed before.
Veronica Hardy is looking to extend her winning streak after earning a decision win earlier this year over JJ Aldrich. Prior to that, she won a split decision over Jamey-Lyn Horth. Hardy has two submissions on her resume but they were against lower-level grapplers (i.e. Polyana Viana and Karine Gevorgyan). Hardy would be wise to avoid the grappling exchanges with Moura. Moura’s most likely path to victory involves a ground attack. The biggest knock on Hardy is her inability to finish. She dishes out good volume but their isn’t much on the end of her strikes. Consequently, Hardy wins usually involve the judges.
We’re going with Hardy to squeeze out a decision. She knows when to secure key takedowns and how to finish rounds on a high note. In other words, she understands how to win over the judges.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes to decision as a parlay piece, the fight ends in a split/majority decision as an individual wager and Hardy by decision as an individual wager.
2. Oban Elliott vs. Bassil Hafez
- Welterweight 170 lbs -
Prediction: Bassil Hafez by Split/Majority Decision
This fight simply comes down to production. They have similar skill sets and they average almost the same output. Bassil Hafez averages 4.23 strikes per minute to go with 3.00 takedowns per fight. Oban Elliott averages 3.82 strikes per minute along with 2.67 takedowns per fight. Hafez has never been finished whereas Elliott’s been knocked out twice. In Elliott’s defense, it’s been years since his last knockout loss. Unless Hafez finds the mark, this has all the makings of a close decision. Hafez has been to five split or majority decisions which is 38% of his fights. And, Elliott is coming off six straight decisions himself. Regardless of who wins, it’s probably coming down to the wire.
Betting Strategy: The fight ends in split/majority decision as an individual wager, Hafez on the moneyline as a parlay piece and Hafez by TKO/KO as an individual wager.
3. Mickey Gall vs. Ramiz Brahimaj
- Welterweight 170 lbs -
Prediction: Mickey Gall by Decision
Mickey Gall is a New Jersey native that’s known for his Jiu Jitsu. Six of his seven victories are by submission. Gall dropped a hard-fought decision against Bassil Hafez back in June. Gall is 1-4 in his last five and it’s been almost four years since his last win. Sadly, Gall is likely fighting for his contract. Another defeat would extend his losing streak to four in a row.
Ramiz Brahimaj is also trying to shake off a rough stretch where he’s dropped three of his last five. Similarly to Gall, Brahimaj needs this win to keep his roster spot. All ten of his wins are by submission so you can expect him to mix in some grappling at some point. Considering that Gall has never been submitted, Brahimaj has his work cut out.
Gall’s been knocked out a few times and he got jacked up in his las fight. All that said, his best attribute is his grappling. So long as he can ward off Brahimaj’s submission attempts, Gall has a path to victory. He averages 3.33 strikes per minutes compared to only 1.74 for Brahimaj. We’re going with the Jersey boy to win a bloody decision.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds as a parlay piece and Gall by decision as an individual wager.
4. Marcin Tybura vs. Jhonata Diniz
- Heavyweight 265 lbs -
Prediction: Marcin Tybura by Decision
Marcin Tybura is consistently inconsistent. He finds a way to drop the ball when he should win. Surprisingly, Diniz is the slight underdog. Diniz is a former kickboxer with an undefeated record and a bright future. It’s obvious the matchmakers would prefer to see him stay perfect so their giving him a winnable fight. It doesn’t mean Tybura can’t pull something out of his you know what. That was the case when Tybura submitted Tai Tuivasa earlier this year. Tybura’s wins over Alexandr Romanov as a +280 odds underdog is another example of him spoiling the party. Tybura was even an underdog when he faced Greg Hardy. Just when the market fades Tybura, he turns the tide.
We know Diniz has hands and can take a punch. But, can he defend Tybura’s wrestling? Diniz’s roots are in kickboxing so it’s fair to question his ground game. All that said, one solid punch from Diniz could stop Tybura in his tracks.
Either Tybura crowds Diniz and chews up control time or Diniz is going to knock him out. Tybura averages 1.42 takedowns per fight which will be key for him. Bettors are likely to gravitate to the Diniz side because he’s an undefeated young prospect. And, Tybura is easy to overlook. Regardless, we’re going with Tybura to use his wrestling and veteran savvy to earn the win.
Betting Strategy: Tybura by submission as an individual wager, Tybura on the moneyline as a parlay piece and Diniz by Round 1 TKO/KO as an individual wager.
5. Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson
- Lightweight 155 lbs -
Prediction: Jim Miller by Round 1 TKO/KO
Damon Jackson is an MMA veteran that’s fought for the PFL and Bellator. This weekend will mark his fourteenth fight with the UFC. He’s known for his elite grappling which is why fifteen of his twenty three wins were by submission. The concern with Jackson is his chin. He’s been knocked out four times, including multiple times early in the first. Movlid Khaybulaev literally shut his lights off with a jumping knee in ten seconds. It took several minutes to wake Jackson up.
Jim Miller is one of the most recognizable names in the sport. He began fighting for the UFC all the way back in 2008. He’s put together a hall-of-fame career that includes several records that may never be broken. One of those records was set at UFC 300 when Miller became the first fighter to fight in UFC 100’s, 200’s and 300’s. It’s a testament to Miller’s hard work and the great lengths he goes to take care of his body. Though he came up short in his last outing, he looked solid in his prior fights against Gabriel Benitez and Jesse Butler. Miller is 5-2 over his last seven and showing little signs of slowing down.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT go to decision as a parlay piece, Miller by TKO/KO as an individual wager and Miller on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
6. Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders
- Middleweight 185 lbs -
Prediction: Chris Weidman by Split/Majority Decision
Like many of the fighters on this card, Eryk Anders has been with the promotion for years. In twenty four fights, he has nine knockouts and one submission. Even though Anders had a 63% win-finish-rate (WFR), most of his recent fights have gone the distance. Between amateur and pro, Anders has been to five split decisions. Going to close decisions is one of the biggest critiques of Anders.
Chris Weidman is suiting up for his third fight since sustaining one of the most horrific leg injuries ever imaginable. It’s remarkable he made a full recovery and even more incredible that he is fighting again. Weidman has a decorated wrestling background. A former New York State champion, he became a two-time NCAA Division I All-American, placing sixth at the 2006 NCAA championships his junior year and third at the 2007 NCAA's his senior year. Weidman averages 3.44 takedowns per match compared to 1.79 for Anders.
We mentioned that Anders goes to a lot of close decisions. If this fight is anywhere close, Weidman’s recovery journey and the hometown setting should afford him the nod.
Betting Strategy: The fight starts round three as a parlay piece, the fight ends in a split/majority decision as an individual wager and Weidman on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
7. Jonathan Martinez vs. Marcus McGhee
- Bantamweight 135 lbs -
Prediction: Marcus McGhee by Round 2 TKO/KO
Jonathan Martinez is a natural striker with nine of his nineteen wins by knockout. He wound up on the wrong end of a close decision against Jose Aldo in his last fight. Martinez’s most notable wins are over Adrian Yanez and Cub Swanson. Swanson is as tough as they come but he’s over the hill and Yanez was hot for a moment before dropping two of his last three. In other words, we aren’t sure how good Martinez is. On one hand, he’s the guy who had a six-fight winning streak in the UFC. On the other hand, he’s been knocked out by Davey Grant and two of his losses in the UFC were against fighters that have since been released.
Marcus McGhee made his UFC debut on short notice last year and took full advantage of the opportunity. He’s finished his first three opponents in the promotion. His most valuable win to date was over Gaston Bolanos. Though he got a late start to his MMA career, he’s been very active since going pro four years ago. This will mark McGhee’s fourth fight in the last two years. He usually starts off by measuring distance and observing his opponents movements. Once he figures out the timing, he begins to chip away. McGhee lands 5.43 strikes per minute and secures 0.84 takedowns per fight.
Martinez isn’t an easy out and he’s only been knocked out once. Meanwhile, all nine of McGhee’s wins were inside the distance. Something has to give…….
Betting Strategy: McGhee on the moneyline as a parlay piece and McGhee by TKO/KO as an individual wager.
— Main Card —
8. Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop
- Lightweight 155 lbs -
Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy by Round 1 TKO/KO
Mauricio Ruffy is a violent Brazilian with heavy hands. All ten of his wins were by knockout and he was dropped in his only loss. We’re impressed with his work thus far but he hasn’t really been tested. The best win of his career was over Jamie Mullarkey. Mullarkey is 5-6 over his last eleven and currently on a two-fight skid. Is James Llontop a step up or down from Mullarkey? It’s hard to tell. Llontop was on a massive winning streak before dropping his first two fights in the UFC. He’s hungry for a win because another loss puts him at risk of getting released.
The smartest way to bet on Ruffy fights is to parlay the under props. He has yet to go the distance.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT start round three as a parlay piece, Ruffy by TKO/KO and the fight ends by TKO/KO as a parlay piece.
9. Karine Silva vs. Viviane Araujo
- Flyweight 125 lbs -
Prediction: Viviane Araujo by Decision
Karine Silva has been on a rampage lately. After earning her UFC contract via Contender Series two years ago, she’s off to a 3-0 start in the promotion. Six of her last seven wins were by submission and her win-finish-rate is an astonishing 94.4%. It’s easy to fall in love with her finishing numbers which might lead some bettors to assume she’ll finish Viviane Araujo. Not so fast. Araujo has a loss-finish-rate (LFR) of 16.7%. Furthermore, Araujo has never been submitted. She went five competitive rounds with Alexa Grasso and she’s been in the cage with the likes of Amanda Ribas and Jessica Eye. Araujo averages 4.11 strikes per minute compared to 2.67 for Silva. The key for Araujo is to defend the takedowns. Silva averages 3.59 takedowns per fight and Araujo defends takedowns 78% of the time.
Karine Silva has a ton of momentum and she’s definitely heading in the right direction. Yet, we’re banking on Araujo’s experience to be the difference-maker.
Betting Strategy: The fight starts round three as a parlay piece, the fight ends by split/majority decision as an individual wager and Araujo on the moneyline as an individual wager.
10. Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
- Middleweight 185 lbs -
Prediction: Bo Nickal by Round 1 Submission
Paul Craig is an aging veteran trying to stay relevant in a competitive division. At thirty six years of age, Craig is basically a sacrificial lamb meant to pad Bo Nickal’s record. Craig’s chin is shot so we wouldn’t be surprised if Nickal drops him with a basic punch. Craig is known for his grappling but so is Nickal. Nickal is a world-class wrestler that will have a major quickness and strength advantage on the mat. Not to mention, Nickal is nearly a decade younger than Craig.
It’s too bad the UFC can’t schedule Nickal for a real fight. This is a promotional activity for Nickal, not a fight.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT start round three as a parlay piece and Nickal to win in round one as a parlay piece.
11. Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler
- Lightweight 155 lbs -
Prediction: Charles Oliveira by Round 3 Submission
Michael Chandler is returning from a two-year layoff where he was holding out to fight Conor McGregor. On the heels of a lengthy absence and the emotions of fumbling a bag, Chandler’s mental state and rust are obvious concerns. When Chandler is at his best, he’s pushing forward and overwhelming the opposition. He averages 4.89 strikes per minute to go with a 78% win-finish-rate. He’s typically the shorter fighter so he has to take risks to close distance. As a result, Chandler’s been finished five times. You have to go all the way back to 2021 to find the last quality win for Chandler (over Dan Hooker).
Charles Oliveira has been riding a bit of a rollercoaster over the last few years. He’s won some big fights (i.e. Poirier, Gaethje and Dariush) and lost a few as well. Oliveira only loses to elite competition at this point in his career. Chandler is 1-3 in his last four and hasn’t fought in years. Is that the sign of an elite fighter? A flyer on Chandler by knockout isn’t a crazy idea. He has knockout power and Oliveira can be wobbled.
In summary, we’re fading Chandler because of the lengthy absence and Oliveira’s championship pedigree.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes under 3.5 rounds as a parlay piece, Chandler by TKO/KO as an individual wager Oliveira by submission as an individual wager.
12. Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic
- Heavyweight Title -
Prediction: Jon Jones by Round 2 Submission
Two of the most popular names in UFC heavyweight history are squaring off for one last time before retiring. Both men have made it clear that this is their swan song. Because of the impending retirement(s) and the combined layoffs, this has the makings of being a dud. Let’s be honest, Stipe Miocic is a relic. He’s forty two years old and he got molly-whopped by Francis Ngannou in his last fight. Additionally, Miocic hasn’t had his hand raised in almost five years. The UFC is selling this fight as a clash of titans between the pound for pound greatest versus the most “decorated” heavyweight in UFC history. In reality, it probably won’t look competitive at all. So long as Jones shows up in shape, he’s going to make quick work of Miocic.
Jones is widely accepted as the greatest pound for pound fighter in MMA history. It’s possible his best days are in the rear view but he’s still good enough to handle has-beens like Miocic. It only took Jones seconds to dismantle Ciryl Gane. Notably, Jones has fought only once in the last five years so his body is rested. The time away from the cage has been controversial for him at times but it doesn’t seem to impact his fighting. Jones is going to win this fight. The only lingering question is will he actually stick to his retirement plans?
Betting Strategy: The fight goes under 3.5 rounds as a parlay piece and Jones inside the distance as a parlay piece.
Spreadsheet & Film Library
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