The UFC is heading back to Brazil for UFC 301 this weekend. The card is loaded with Brazilian badasses like Vitor Petrino, Ishmael Bonfim and Joanderson Brito. Alexandre Pantoja puts his crown on the line in the main event and the legendary Jose Aldo returns from a two-year boxing hiatus. The prelims kick off at 6:00PM (EST) with the PPV portion of the card beginning at 10:00PM (EST).
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— Prelim Card —
1. Alessandro Costa [-135] vs. Kevin Borjas [+114]
Flyweight 125 lbs
Prediction: Kevin “El Gallo Negro” Borjas by Decision (+400)
This is one of the toughest fights on the card to predict because they are so evenly matched. We are leaning ever so slightly towards Borjas because he is the busier of the two fighters. In a close fight that comes down to the scorecards, the more active fighter usually gets the nod.
Costa could benefit from initiating some grappling to keep Borjas off balance. For Borjas, he would be wise to maintain his distance. Whoever can implement their game plan will likely get their hand raised.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds (-210) as a parlay piece, the fight ends in split/majority decision (TBA) as an individual prop wager and Borjas on the moneyline as an individual wager.
Prop 🔒 : Over 1.5 Rounds (-210)
2. Ishmael Bonfim [-520] vs. Vinc Pichel [+390]
Lightweight 155 lbs
Prediction: Ishmael “Marreta” Bonfim by Decision (+200)
This is a rescheduled bout from late last year. The original fight was canceled after Bonfim missed weight. Bonfim is trying to bounce back from a round one submission loss in his last outing. Pichel is also trying to get back in the win column after dropping his last fight. The two biggest concerns with Pichel are his age and his lack of activity. This will mark his second fight since 2021 and he didn’t fight at all in 2023. He’ll need to turn back the clock to keep pace with Bonfim.
Bonfim has displayed a variety of finishing skills along with having the cardio to win on the scorecards. It kinda feels like the matchmakers want to build him back up. He’s only twenty eight years old and has tons of potential. Will Bonfim come out cautious since he was finished in his last fight? Or, maybe Bonfim will struggle to make weight again. Either way, this is an important get-right fight for Bonfim.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds (-250) as a parlay piece and Bonfim on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
Prop 🔒 : Over 1.5 Rounds (-250)
3. Dione Barbosa [-218] vs. Ernesta Kareckaite [+180]
Flyweight 125 lbs
Prediction: Dione “The Witch” Barbosa by Round 1 Submission (+450)
They are both making their UFC debut so anything is possible. Barbosa picked up her contract with a round one submission on Contender Series last fall. Kareckaite also earned her contract on the last season of Contender Series. The difference is that Kareckaite won her fight by split decision. With all due respect, Kareckaite did not do enough on the Contender Series to give us the impression she is going to make waves in the UFC. Dana signed her simply to fill an inexpensive roster spot. She is average at everything, not very quick and her grappling is nowhere near the level of Barbosa. Kareckaite will be lucky if she survives three full rounds without getting submitted. Kareckaite has a propensity to end up in close decisions. She’s been to three straight split decisions.
Half of Barbosa’s wins are by submission and she won her last fight by a round one armbar. Her combat roots are in grappling which is very evident when you watch her fights. Considering how raw Kareckaite’s grappling is, Barbosa should have a field day with her.
Betting Strategy: Barbosa by submission (+200) as an individual wager, Barbosa on the moneyline as a parlay piece and the fight ends by split/majority decision (TBA) as an individual prop wager.
Prop 🔒 : Barbosa Win (-205)
4. Mauricio Ruffy [-205] vs. Jamie Mullarkey [+170]
Lightweight 155 lbs
Prediction: Jamie Mullarkey by Decision (+365)
Mullarkey is a tough fighter to predict and he’s been a .500 level fighter in the UFC (5-5). The biggest question mark is his chin. He tends to eat a lot of headshots and he was knocked out in the first round of his last fight. Mullarkey’s lack of head movement and predictable patterns make him an easy target. All that said, no one will question Mullarkey’s heart. He never gives up and he can fight through adversity. It’s only natural that his chin will start to show signs of wear and tear.
Ruffy earned his UFC contract via the 2023 Contender Series. Not only did he finish his opponent, he did so as a +180 odds underdog. Ruffy is a product of “Fighting Nerds” which is one of the best gyms in Brazil. His striking is pretty good and his lower leg kicks are damaging. One of Ruffy’s best attributes is his conditioning. He was very composed and full of energy in the third round of his last match. Our only two critiques of Ruffy are that he holds his lead hand low and his ground game is limited. To his credit, he displayed solid takedown defense in his Contender Series fight.
James Llontop’s loss last weekend as a sizable favorite in his debut was a reminder that debutants can’t be trusted. As hard as it is to pick against a talented prospect like Ruffy, we are banking on Mullarkey’s experience to squeeze out a decision win.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds (-155) as a parlay piece and Mullarkey on the moneyline as an individual wager.
Prop 🔒 : Over 1.5 Rounds (-155)
5. Joaquim Silva [+154] vs. Drakkar Klose [-185]
Lightweight 170 lbs
Prediction: Drakkar Klose by Round 1 TKO/KO (+475)
Silva is coming off a solid decision win a few months ago over Clay Guida. At one time Silva was 10-0 after winning his UFC debut (2017). Since then he is 3-4 and having a hard time just getting to the final bell. He was TKO’ed in his last three defeats (Armen Tsarukyan, Ricky Glenn and Nasrat Haqparast). Ricky Glenn finished him in thirty seven seconds. Klose has proven knockout power so Silva needs to be mindful of getting clipped. Silva can reduce his exposure by employing a grappling-heavy game plan. A prolonged striking affair will place him in the crosshairs.
Klose is 8-2 in the UFC with quality wins over Bobby Green, Marc Diakiese and Rafa Garcia. From a strength of schedule, Klose has a much better resume. Additionally, he hasn’t struggled with durability the way that Silva has. Statistically, Klose lands more punches and secures more takedowns. Klose’s output alone should allow him to dictate the tempo of the fight. In the process, he’ll have opportunities to test Silva’s chin. We like his chances of finding the mark.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT go the distance (-150) as a parlay piece, Klose on the moneyline as a parlay piece and Klose by TKO/KO (+170) as an individual prop wager,
Prop 🔒 : No Distance (-150)
6. Jean Silva [-120] vs. William Gomis [+100]
Featherweight 145 lbs
Prediction: Jean “Lord Assassin” Silva by Decision (+250)
Silva is in search of his tenth in a row after winning his UFC debut earlier this year. Silva is one of several “Fighting Nerds” fighters on this card. He utilizes an intimidating fighting style and attacks from all angles. He’s a problem anywhere the fight takes place. He will be at a disadvantage from a size standpoint. Gomis will have a noticeable height and reach advantage over the much stockier Silva. It’ll be interesting to see if Gomis is able to use his size to his benefit.
As for Gomis, he is also riding a lengthy winning streak. He’s 3-0 in the UFC and hasn’t lost a fight in eight years! His lengthy frame is deceiving. He’s stronger than he looks and his wrestling is pretty good. The only critique we have of Gomis is that his endurance appears questionable at times. It’s as if he experiences cardio dips and then finds a second wind. Though we applaud Gomis for his winning streak, he barely defeated two of his last three opponents. He won by split decision over Marshall and by majority decision over Errens.
Gomes has finished four of his last six opponents and they are both coming off of knockout wins. On the other hand, they’ve been to decision in three of their last combined fights. As they move up in competition, their finish rates will naturally diminish. Hence, we’re expecting this one to go the full distance.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds (-340) as a parlay piece, the fight ends in split/majority decision (+350) as an individual prop wager and the fight goes to decision (-150) as a parlay piece.
Prop 🔒 : Over 1.5 Rounds (-340)
7. Myktybek Orolbai [-250] vs. Elves Brener [+205]
Lightweight 155 lbs
Prediction: Elves Brener by Decision (+550)
Orolbai is a wrestle-heavy fighter that averages 11.41 takedowns per fight. He has a handful of submissions along with ground and pound finishes. Once he gets his opponents he doesn’t waste time trying to end the fight. Striking is his weak spot. He averages less than one strike per minute so he is dependent on his grappling. One-dimensional fighters are always a risk. If he faces an opponent with solid takedown defense, he could find himself in trouble.
Brener is on a winning streak that includes a 3-0 mark in the UFC. The most impressive part of his run in the UFC is that he’s been a sizable underdog in all of his fights. He won his UFC debut as a +470 underdog. He followed that up with a knockout win over Kutateladze as a +475 underdog. And, he won his last fight by round one knockout as a +175 underdog. Clearly, the market is sleeping on Brener. Brener has a chin, he has displayed tremendous fighter IQ and he is the more balanced fighter. Lastly, Brener is on a five-fight winning streak and has never been finished. Win, lose or draw, Brener is going to give Orolbai all he can handle.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds (-280) as a parlay piece, Brener on the moneyline as an individual wager and Brener by TKO/KO (+1000) as an individual wager.
Prop 🔒 : Over 1.5 Rounds (-280)
8. Iasmin Lucindo [-425] vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz [+330]
Strawweight 115 lbs
Prediction: Iasmin Lucindo by Decision (+100)
Kowalkiewicz is a Polish veteran that began her career over in KSW before signing with the UFC in 2015. She’s 9-7 in the UFC and currently riding a four-fight winning streak. Kowalkiewicz has recent wins over Belbita, Demopoulos and Silvana Juarez. The biggest win of her career was over Rose Namajunas and she’s been the distance with Alexa Grasso. Bottom line, she’s held her own against the best. All that said, she turns thirty-nine this year which is ancient for a strawweight. Kowalkiewicz’s recent success suggests otherwise but we all know that father time is undefeated.
Lucindo is an up-and-coming Brazilian firecracker with strong Jiu Jitsu. She submitted Polyana Viana in her last outing and three of her last five wins were inside the distance. She’s 9-1 over her last ten. Her only defeat during that stretch was by decision to the red hot Yazmin Jauregui (11-1). Lucindo would be wise to mix in grappling early and often. Kowalkiewicz can keep it close while they are at striking range. Notably, Lucindo was forced to pull out of her last fight due to an injury. That was approximately seven months (September 2023) ago so we assume she is fully healed.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds (-400) as a parlay piece, Lucindo on the moneyline as a parlay piece and Lucindo by submission (+400) as an individual prop wager.
Prop 🔒 : Over 1.5 Rounds (-400)
9. Joanderson Brito [-166] vs. Jack Shore [+140]
Featherweight 145 lbs
Prediction: Joanderson “Tubarao” Brito by Round 2 Submission (+1100)
Shore is a talented Welsh prospect with an impressive record. He hangs his hat on his wrestling but his striking isn’t half bad. His loss two fights ago to Ricky Simon was an eye-opener. Not only did he lose to Simon, he was submitted in the process. It was Shore’s first loss so it could be chalked up as a learning experience. Or, it may be a sign that he is approaching his ceiling. One of the biggest critiques we have of Shore is his strength of schedule. Simon was his toughest test and he failed miserably. Joanderson Brito will be an even tougher test for Shore.
Brito is riding a nice winning streak that’s included four straight finishes. His recent victims have included Jonathan Pearce, Andre Fili and Lucas Alexander. Brito’s only loss in the last eight years was by decision to Bill Algeo (2022). On paper, their striking and wrestling stats are almost identical. The difference is that Brito hits with greater power and his submission offense is much more effective. We can see Brito scooping up a submission in the first two rounds.
Betting Strategy: The fight doesn’t go to decision (-190) as a parlay piece, the fight ends by submission (+175) as an individual prop wager and Brito on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
Prop 🔒 : No Distance (-190)
— Main Card —
10. Paul Craig [+490] vs. Caio Borralho [-675]
Middleweight 185 lbs
Prediction: Caio “The Natural” Borralho by Round 2 Submission (+700)
We aren’t going to spend much time on this fight because the outcome seems fairly obvious. Either Borralho will win a boring decision by cuddling Craig for three rounds or he’ll grow a pair and actually go for the finish. Craig is one of the most dangerous fighters off his back. His submission skills are well documented along with his lack of a chin.
For all the amazing things that Borralho does, he lacks a sense of urgency. Regardless, Borralho is simply better than Craig. Borralho’s BJJ is also good enough to defend Craig’s advances. This is Borralho’s fight to lose, period.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT go the distance (-190) as a parlay piece, the fight ends by submission (+165) as an individual prop wager, Craig by submission (+900) as an individual wager and Borralho on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
Prop 🔒 : Borralho to Win
11. Michel Pereira [-650] vs. Ihor Potieria [+470]
Middleweight 185 lbs
Prediction: Michel “Demolidor” Pereira by Decision (+400)
This is an interesting match-up between two very different fighters. Potieria is a stand and bang type of fighter whereas Pereira works the entire cage. Pereira has won seven in a row and hasn’t dropped a fight in four years. His winning streak has included victories over Michal Oleksiejczuk, Andre Petroski and Andre Fialho. Pereira is difficult to prepare for because of his unorthodox style. If Poteiria is going to have any success, he needs to cut off the cage. Otherwise, Pereira is going to pot-shot him from distance. Though Pereira is more of a decision fighter, he is coming off back to back finishes. If Potieria makes a mistake Pereira has the tools to end the fight early.
Potieria has traditionally utilized a very aggressive style. He turned over a new leaf by winning his last fight by decision. Potieria’s aggressiveness has gotten the best of him at times so it’s good to see him employing a more calculated approach. Durability is one of the biggest concerns for Potieria. He was TKO’ed in three of his last five bouts. When he loses, he tends to get beaten up.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds (+120) as a parlay piece and Pereira on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
Prop 🔒 : Over 1.5 Rounds (+120)
12. Anthony Smith [+425] vs. Vitor Petrino [-575]
Light Heavyweight 205 lbs
Prediction: Anthony “Lionheart” Smith by Round 2 Submission (+3500)
Smith began his pro fighting career nearly twenty years ago and he’s shared the cage with some of the best. Unfortunately, his last few fights have not gone so well. He was destroyed by Khalil Rountree late last year and he is 1-3 in his last four fights. The only win he had during that stretch was by split decision over Ryan Spann. Smith got banged up pretty badly in his last fight. That was only four months ago so he hasn’t had much time to recover.
Petrino is part of the future of the light heavyweight division. He’s extremely athletic, undefeated and still making improvements. Petrino packs tons of power in his hands and he earned a submission win at UFC 290. Though he has a few decision wins, his stamina is iffy. In his win over Turkalj he made an assortment of grappling mistakes. If Petrino does that against Smith, he’ll be in trouble. Three of Smith’s last five wins were by submission.
This is a much closer matchup than the line suggests. If the fight is at range, we favor Petrino. If the fight includes substantial grappling, Smith can definitely pull off the upset.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT go the distance (-225) as a parlay piece, Petrino by Round 1 TKO/KO (+300) as an individual prop wager and Smith by submission (+1400) as an individual prop wager.
Prop 🔒 : No Distance (-225)
13. Jonathan Martinez [-148] vs. Jose Aldo [+124]
Bantamweight 135 lbs
Prediction: Jonathan “Dragon” Martinez by Decision (+140)
We thought Aldo had put down the MMA gloves in exchange for boxing? He’s been boxing the last two years and hasn’t fought an MMA fight since 2022. Low and behold, he returns for UFC 301. The UFC probably offered him a bag and he couldn’t turn down the chance to perform in front of his countrymen. At thirty seven years of age, Aldo still has something left in the tank. He went 3-1 in his last four UFC fights with the lone loss being by decision to Merab.
Martinez hasn’t dropped a fight in more than three years and is deserving of this co-main event spot. His most valuable wins are over Said Nurmagomedov and Adrian Yanez. He is showing improvements with each fight and starting to look like a future title challenger. The biggest key to victory for Martinez is to be first. He needs to lead the dance and deliver more volume. Aldo isn’t the highest volume fighter and he lacks knockout power. Nine of Aldo’s last ten fights have gone to decision. So long as Martinez can make this a marathon, his youth and volume should be enough to earn a decision win over the legendary Jose Aldo.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds (-525) as a parlay piece and Martinez on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
Prop 🔒 : Over 1.5 Rounds (-525)
14. Alexandre Pantoja [-192] vs. Steve Erceg [+160]
Flyweight 125 lbs
Prediction: Steve “Astroboy” Erceg by Decision (+450)
This fight will mark Pantoja’s second title defense after winning the crown over Moreno last year. Without question, Pantoja is one of the toughest flyweights in all of MMA. He doesn’t back away from danger, he’s capable of fighting through adversity and he’s durable. Win or lose, he is always ready for war.
We don’t have enough of a sample size to have a clue how Erceg will perform on a big stage like this. Some fans feel that Erceg isn’t deserving of this fight. It’s reminiscent of how the UFC fast-tracked guys like Tuivasa, Prochazka, O’Malley and Pavlovich. Sometimes it works out and sometimes it doesn’t. For whatever reason, the matchmakers feel Erceg is ready. Erceg’s most realistic path to victory is on the scorecards. In thirty two professional fights, Pantoja has never been stopped.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds (-500) as a parlay piece, the fight ends in split/majority decision (+500) as an individual wager and Erceg by decision (+450) as an individual wager.
Prop 🔒 : Over 1.5 Rounds (-500)
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