UFC 299 takes place this weekend in the beautiful city of Miami, Florida. Sean O’Malley defends his bantamweight title against longtime rival Marlon “Chito” Vera to close out the show. In the co-main event, perennial lightweight contender Dustin Poirier takes on the fast-rising Benoit Saint Denis. Also on the main card, Holland welcomes former Bellator star Michael Page to the octagon, one-time title challenger Gilbert Burns faces Maddalena, and former bantamweight champion Petr Yan takes on Song Yadong.
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— Prelim Card —
1. Joanne Wood [+190] vs. Maryna Moroz [-230]
Flyweight 125 lbs
Prediction: Maryna “Iron Lady” Moroz by Split Decision (TBA)
Combined, they have one finish in their last nineteen fights. Wood lands almost seven strikes per minute and Moroz lands 4.15 strikes per minute. Wood is the more active grappler. She averages 1.57 takedowns per fight compared to only 0.67 takedowns per fight Moroz. Wood’s path of least resistance is to take Moroz to the ground. If Wood can establish her wrestling, she can dominate Moroz on the mat. If Wood fights tentatively and doesn’t initiate a takedown, then it’s anyone’s ball game.
At these prices, Wood is a very tempting underdog play. But, the fact that she is retiring after this fight forces us to go with Moroz.
Betting Strategy: Over 2.5 rounds (-325) and the fight goes to a split decision (TBA).
Prop 🔒 : Starts Round 3 (TBA)
2. Asu Almabaev [-425] vs. CJ Vergara [+320]
Flyweight 125 lbs
Prediction: Asu “Zulifkar” Almabaev by Decision (+155)
Almabaev is part of the growing trend of fighters from Kazakhstan. Four of his last seven wins were by submission and he has nine submissions in total. He won his UFC debut last summer with a round two submission over Osbourne. Almabaev averages 3.67 takedowns per fight so you can expect him to shoot early and often.
Vergara is a tough SOB that’s been in several exciting fights. His best weapon is his ability to fight through adversity. In seventeen professional bouts, Vergara has never been knocked out. He has been submitted twice, including three fights ago against Taira. Considering Almabaev’s proclivity to submit opponents, Vergara needs to proceed with caution when the grappling begins. Vergara lands significantly more strikes per fight than Almabaev so a decision win isn’t outside the realm of possibility.
Vergara is never an easy out and he’s been the distance with quality guys like Kleydson Rodrigues. We’re counting on Vergara to last fifteen minutes.
Betting Strategy: The fight starts round two (TBA), Vergara by decision (+675), Almabaev as a parlay piece and the fight ends in a split decision (TBA).
Prop 🔒 : Starts Round 2 (TBA)
Did You Know? CJ Vergara founded a backyard MMA fight club when he was a fifteen year old freshman in high school. Not only did Vergara fight in the promotion, he was also the matchmaker.
3. Robelis Despaigne [-345] vs. Josh Parisian [+250]
Heavyweight 265 lbs
Prediction: Robelis “The Big Boy” Despaigne by Round 1 TKO/KO (-205)
Parisian is clearly on the lower end of the heavyweight division. He’s also been finished in two of his last five bouts. Parisian isn’t known for his one-punch knockout power but he can wrestle a little. Parisian needs takedowns and substantial control time to pull off the upset. More importantly, he has to survive the early power shots from Despaigne.
Despaigne is a former Tae Kwon Do Olympic gold medalist. He’s also a mountain of a man. Despaigne is listed at 6’7” with over a seven foot reach (87”). While they are at kickboxing range, he should have his way with Parisian. All of his wins have been early in the first round against inferior competition. What if Parisian can take him down or extend it to the second round? What if Parisian exhausts him with repetitive clinches and dirty boxing?
This is a classic case of an experienced veteran versus a hyped prospect. Despaigne’s potential and gargantuan size will blind most people that preview this match. We are not nearly as confident as the market. You can make the argument that this is a 50/50 fight that should be around even money odds.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT start round three (TBA), the fight ends by TKO/KO (TBA) and Parisian to win.
Prop 🔒 : No Round 3 (TBA)
4. Philipe Lins [+110] vs. Ion Cutelaba [-130]
Light Heavyweight 205 lbs
Prediction: Philipe “Monstro” Lins by Round 2 Submission (TBA)
Cutelaba is trying to get his career back on track after dropping six of his last ten fights. During that stretch he was finished in all six of his defeats. Most of his wins are inside the distance so his fights don’t typically go to the scorecards. Tanner Boser knocked out Lins in round one whereas Cutelaba TKO’ed Boser in round one.
Lins is a former PFL Champion at the tail end of his career. His cardio is solid and he’s on a three-fight winning streak. Though his finish rate has gone down recently, Lin’s packs knockout power and his BJJ skills can’t be overlooked. If this match gets to the ground, Lins is the better grappler. Considering Cutelaba’s durability issues, a submission by Lins isn’t outside the realm of possibility.
There are reasons to like both of them. Cutelaba has a dominant win over a common opponent that whooped Lins. And, father time is undefeated.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT go the distance (TBA) and Lins on the moneyline.
Prop 🔒 : No Distance (TBA)
5. Michel Pereira [-148] vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk [+124]
Middleweight 185 lbs
Prediction: Michel “Demolidor” Pereira by Decision (+250)
Oleksiejczuk is a talented Polish striker with hands of steel. He dismantled Njokuani with a round one TKO in his last outing. His last four wins were all round one knockouts. Unfortunately, Oleksiejczuk’s ground game is nonexistent. As a result, he was submitted by Borralho, Crute and St. Preux.
Pereira is entering the cage for his 41st professional fight. He fought all over the world before getting his break with the UFC in 2019. Pereira is riding a nice winning streak and hasn’t dropped a bout in four years! The only knock on Pereira is his wild fighting style. Sometimes his antics are highlight worthy and sometimes they are worthless. Love it or leave it, Pereira usually gets the crowd going.
Based on a recent interview, Oleksiejczuk is training on his own and sparring with friends. At the very least, this is concerning if you are wagering on Oleksiejczuk.
Betting Strategy: The fight starts round two (TBA), Pereira by submission (+750) Pereira as a parlay piece.
Prop 🔒 : Starts Round 2 (TBA)
6. Pedro Munhoz [+195] vs. Kyler Phillips [-238]
Bantamweight 135 lbs
Prediction: Pedro “Young Punisher” Munhoz by Decision (+350)
Philips participated in season 27 of TUF and he was also on the Contender Series in 2017. He lands 5.36 strikes per minute while securing almost three takedowns per fight. In eighteen total MMA fights, he has never been finished. His 6-1 record in the UFC is also impressive. He’s also nearly a decade younger than Munhoz. The only question mark with him is cardio. Anyone who has watched him fight knows that he slows down considerably in the second half. As a result, he’s been to some close decisions.
In almost ten years in the promotion, Munhoz has shared the cage with past and present champions like Jose Aldo, Sean O’Malley, Cody Garbrandt and Aljamain Sterling. In almost thirty professional fights, Munhoz has never been stopped. Factually, Munhoz is one of the most durable bantamweights in UFC history.
Munhoz would be wise to force Phillips to work off his back foot. The best way to defeat Phillips is to test his cardio. We are edging the Munhoz side because of his invaluable experience and sheer determination.
Betting Strategy: Over 2.5 rounds (-300), the fight goes to decision (-260) and the fight ends in a split decision (TBA).
Prop 🔒 : Starts Round 3 (TBA)
7. Mateusz Gamrot [-455] vs. Rafael dos Anjos [+350]
Flyweight 125 lbs
Prediction: Mateusz “Gamer” Gamrot by Decision (-180)
Gamrot is the largest favorite on the card and he should be. Anjos has looked every bit of his age over his last few matches whereas Gamrot is in his prime. The key for Gamrot is simple, stick to the wrestling (4.36 takedowns per fight). Anjos’s 56% takedown defense isn’t going to hold up. Moreover, Anjos has slowed down considerably over his last few fights. At almost forty years old, he is a shell of his former self. The only way Anjos pulls this off is with a slick submission or a fluke injury.
From a betting perspective, Gamrot will be one of the most popular parlay pieces on the card. If you are parlaying Gamrot, you may want to consider a small hedge bet on Anjos. The betting gods will appreciate your donation and it covers you in the event of something out of the ordinary. Though Anjos is over the hill, he is still durable enough to last 1-2 rounds. Hence, the fight starting round three and/or the over 2.5 rounds props will find their way into at least one of our parlays.
Betting Strategy: The fight starts round three (TBA), Anjos by submission (+1200), Anjos to win and Gamrot as a parlay piece.
Prop 🔒 : Starts Round 3 (TBA)
8. Katlyn Cerminara [+170] vs. Maycee Barber [-205]
Bantamweight 135 lbs
Prediction: Maycee “The Future” Barber by Split Decision (TBA)
Betting Barber by decision is a profitable venture. And, betting her by split decision has proven to be even more lucrative. Regardless of why she ends up in so many close decisions, it’s not a coincidence. Barber can be very tentative at times which makes her rounds tough to score. Furthermore, the UFC appears very high on her. Barber is an average grappler and an average striker. It’s been good enough to skate by up till now but her day of reckoning is coming. It’s just not going to be this weekend.
Cerminara (formerly Chookagian) is a UFC veteran that utilizes a karate style. She is at her best, she peppers opponents with kicks from distance. If she can dish out enough volume, there is a world where she can defeat Barber. Then again, we thought Barber lost to Maverick and Lee. Even if Cerminara lands more strikes and secures more control time, the judges will give this to Barber.
Betting Strategy: Over 2.5 rounds (-360), the fight goes to decision (-325), the fight ends in split decision (TBA) and Barber by split decision (TBA).
Prop 🔒 : Starts Round 3 (TBA)
9. Curtis Blaydes [-118] vs. Jailton Almeida [-105]
Heavyweight 265 lbs
Prediction: Curtis “Razor” Blaydes by Decision (+300)
As expected, Almeida ran through opponents like Parker Porter, Anton Turkalj and Shamil Abdurakhimov. But, Blaydes is levels above those guys and maybe one of the best heavyweight wrestlers (5.93 takedowns per fight) in the world. Almeida has never faced a legit heavyweight with the wrestling chops of Blaydes. As we saw in Almeida’s last fight, natural heavyweights aren’t so easy for him to style on. Additionally, Blaydes has faced much better competition than anyone Almeida has fought.
Almeida has the world of potential at light heavyweight. Hopefully he will make the move down in the near future. Otherwise, he has a low ceiling as a heavyweight.
Betting Strategy: The fight starts round two (TBA), over 1.5 rounds (-150) and Blaydes on the moneyline.
Prop 🔒 : Starts Round 2 (TBA)
— Main Card —
10. Petr Yan [-135] vs. Yadong Song [+114]
Bantamweight 135 lbs
Prediction: Petr “No Mercy” Yan by Decision (+135)
If they fought ten times, we’d probably end up with ten close decisions and a few splits. Yan is one of the unluckiest fighters in recent history. He should have defeated Sterling in their first fight. Then, he got shortchanged by the judges against Sterling and O’Malley. In another world, Yan still has a title and is on a massive winning streak. Notably, three of Yan’s five defeats have been by split decision. Maybe he is due for a split decision win.
Song’s most realistic path to victory is on the scorecards. Yan has never been finished and his cardio is very strong. They average almost the same striking volume and are both solid on the ground. No matter where this fight takes place, it’s going to be competitive for fifteen minutes.
Betting Strategy: Over 1.5 rounds (TBA), the fight goes to decision (-250) and the fight ends in split decision (TBA).
Prop 🔒 : Over 1.5 Rounds (TBA)
11. Gilbert Burns [+102] vs. Jack Maddalena [-122]
Welterweight 170 lbs
Prediction: Gilbert “Durinho” Burns by Decision (+450)
Gilbert Burns should be the favorite in our opinion. Maddalena hasn’t faced anywhere near the level of competition as Burns. Secondly, Maddalena is coming off back to back split decision wins. Last but no least, Burns is far and away the better wrestler. Maddalena’s split decision win over Hafez revealed some holes in his game. For one, Maddalena is an easy target that absorbs too many strikes. If he doesn’t improve his defense he’s going to have problems as he moves up in competition.
Burns has exchanged leather with the likes of Chimaev, Masvidal, Muhammad, Thompson, Usman and many others. His cardio checks out and his wrestling can be a difference-maker. It’s up to Burns to implement his game plan.
Betting Strategy: Over 1.5 rounds (-200), the fight starts round three (TBA) and Burns on the moneyline.
Prop 🔒 : Starts Round 2 (TBA)
12. Kevin Holland [-135] vs. Michael Page [+114]
Welterweight 170 lbs
Prediction: Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland by Round Two Submission (+1800)
Predicting Kevin Holland fights is like predicting the weather. Half the time Holland is fighting it appears he isn’t even trying to win. Between talking to ringside
personalities and employing bad game plans, Holland can’t be trusted. An area of his game that is often underrated is his grappling. He submitted Chiesa with a D’arce Choke two fights ago and has a handful of submissions throughout his career. Holland’s long frame allows him to go after submissions that aren’t possible for most fighters.
Page is making his long-awaited debut after having a successful run in Bellator. He’s long, athletic and known for his highlight knockouts. The biggest question we have for Page is how will his skills transfer to the UFC. Bellator has a lot of talented fighters but the overall skill level is superior in the UFC. Page went to split decision against Logan Storley and Douglas Lima. Holland is a step above Storley and Lima.
We’re banking on Holland’s UFC experience and grappling prowess to pick up the dub.
Betting Strategy: The fight starts round two (TBA), Holland to win and Holland by submission (+575).
Prop 🔒 : Starts Round 2 (TBA)
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