PFL World Tournament VII
2025 Semi Finals - Chicago, Illinois
The next round of the PFL World Tournament takes place this Friday in Chi-Town. With playoff spots on the line, every bout carries massive stakes as fighters look to secure their place in the 2025 postseason. In the light heavyweight bracket, standout Simeon Powell looks to maintain his momentum against the dangerous Antonio Carlos Jr, while Josh Silveira meets former Bellator contender Fabian Edwards in the main event. UFC fans may recognize the new additions to the PFL roster like Alexandr Romanov and Rodrigo Nascimento, both coming of wins in their PFL debuts. Tune in to ESPN this Friday at 8:30PM (EST) to catch all the action.
— Prelim Card —
1. Karl Albrektsson vs. Rafael Xavier
- Light Heavyweight 205 lbs -
Prediction: Rafael Xavier by Decision
This round of the PFL semi finals kicks off with a light heavyweight clash between two MMA veterans, Karl Albrektsson and Rafael Xavier.. Albrektsson has fought for such organizations as Bellator and RIZIN. Albrektsson brings a well-rounded skill set rooted in solid kickboxing and a disciplined grappling base. Known for his composure and fight IQ, the Swedish fighter will look to control the tempo and dictate the range, using his jab and counter-wrestling to stifle any momentum from his opponent. Albrektsson is 1-4 over his last five and eager to get back in the win column.
Across the cage, Rafael Xavier steps in with less name recognition but plenty of hunger and finishing ability. Xavier is also coming into this bout off a loss. A physical and aggressive striker, Xavier thrives in high-pressure situations, often looking to overwhelm opponents with volume and power. The key to this matchup may lie in Albrektsson’s ability to neutralize Xavier’s explosiveness and drag the fight into deeper waters, where experience and tactical precision could tip the balance. For Xavier, this bout represents an opportunity to make a major statement and leap into the spotlight with a signature win. Expect a tactical battle early on, with bursts of intensity as both men look to impose their will and secure their place in the division's upper tier.
Both fighters sport high win-finish-rates which might lead some fans to expect a finish. On the other hand, they are equally matched could result in a stalemate. From a betting perspective, this is a tough one to call.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds as a parlay piece.
2. Oleg Popov vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
- Heavyweight 265 lbs -
Prediction: Oleg Popov by Decision
Oleg Popov’s relentless wrestling and forward pressure. He arrives in peak form on a 20‑2 record and boasting 12 career finishes, including a razor‑thin split‑decision win over Karl Williams that secured his place in the semis. Known for his ability to impose takedowns and grind opponents into submission, Popov’s veteran savvy and ground control will be a formidable test. Notably, he is a protégé of Fedor Emelianenko.
Rodrigo Nascimento is a Brazilian-born prospect carrying a 12‑3 mark. He has a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu‑Jitsu which could prove useful against Popov. Nascimento squeezed by with a split decision in the last round. Five of his last six matches have gone to decision, three of those went to split decision. Nascimento’s lack of finishing ability and propensity to end up in close decisions is concerning to say the least. Expect a chess match early, as Popov looks to smother Nascimento’s offense, while Nascimento will hunt openings to lock in submissions or land heavy ground-and-pound.
Though heavyweights pack the most power, don’t be surprised if this one goes longer. They are both coming off decisions and their combined win-finish-rate is 63.4%.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds as a parlay piece and the fight ends in a split/majority decision as an individual wager.
3. Biaggio Ali Walsh vs. Ronnie Gibbs
- Lightweight 155 lbs -
Prediction: Biaggio Ali Walsh by Round 2 TKO/KO
Biaggio Ali Walsh returns to the SmartCage for an anticipated lightweight matchup as he faces Ronnie Gibbs. Ali Walsh, the grandson of boxing icon Muhammad Ali, has steadily developed his MMA game, evolving from a raw athlete into a composed and disciplined fighter. Known for his explosive striking improvements enters this fight riding a wave of momentum. Walsh’s ability to control the pace and mix in takedowns has made him a tough puzzle to solve. Ronnie Gibbs, however, presents a different kind of test. A dangerous and aggressive fighter, Gibbs thrives in brawls and looks to push the action early with heavy hands and unrelenting pressure. He has the power to end a fight in an instant and the mindset to drag opponents into deep waters. The key question will be whether Ali Walsh can dictate the terms of engagement or if Gibbs can turn the bout into a chaotic slugfest. Gibb’s wouldn’t mind turning this into a grappling affair. Three of his eight amateur bouts resulted in submission wins for Gibb’s. If Walsh has one weakness, submission defense is it. Walsh was submitted in his only amateur defeat.
Walsh won all six of his amateur fights by TKO/KO. And, he’s fresh off his first pro knockout win. Can Walsh add another highlight finish to his credentials or will Gibb’s spoil the moment?
Betting Strategy: Walsh by TKO/KO as a parlay piece and Gibb’s by submission as an individual wager.
4. Alexandr Romanov vs. Valentin Moldavsky
- Heavyweight 265 lbs -
Prediction: Valentin Moldavsky by Round 3 TKO/KO
Alexandr Romanov stormed through the quarterfinals with a standing guillotine choke, making an impressive debut after transitioning from the UFC. Romanov has a reputation for bulldozing opponents with wrestling. Romanov’s power to force submissions—especially chokes—makes him a nightmare on the mat.
Valentin Moldavsky brings a contrasting mixture of seasoned striking and combat sambo. The former interim Bellator heavyweight champ picked up a decision victory over Sergey Bilostenniy in the last round. His game blends elite grappling with punishing leg and body strikes.
This bout not only tests Romanov’s submission urgency against Moldavsky’s sambo craft, the winner heads to the finals.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT go to decision as a parlay piece and Moldavsky on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
5. Simeon Powell vs. Antonio Carlos Jr.
- Light Heavyweight 205 lbs -
Prediction: Antonio Carlos Jr. by Round 3 Submission
Simeon Powell arrives on a wave of momentum following a breathtaking second-round knockout win over Karl Albrektsson on May 1st. His athleticism and crisp striking separate him from the competition. With an 11‑1 record highlighted by seven knockouts, the towering Brit has demonstrated both explosive power and composure under pressure.
On the opposite side, Antonio Carlos Jr brings elite-level Brazilian jiu‑jitsu. 13 of his 16 career wins are by submission. Carlos Jr was the 2021 PFL light heavyweight champion. He earned a split‑decision win over Karl Moore in the quarterfinals. As a BJJ world champion turned MMA grappler, Carlos Jr. remains one of the most dangerous submission threats in the division. Serious leg injuries have slowed him down over the last few years. At 35 years of age, Carlos Jr. is also nearly a decade older than Powell. It’s now or never for the aging vet.
Powell will look to leverage his range, length, and striking pedigree to keep Carlos Júnior at bay, exploding in short windows with strikes or high-impact elbows. Meanwhile, Carlos Júnior will seek to drag the fight into deep waters, using his elite grappling to sap Powell's strength, work for takedowns, and hunt for mid-fight submissions. Still, it's worth noting that across 19 amateur and professional bouts, Powell has never been submitted.
Betting Strategy: Carlos Jr. by submission as an individual wager and Carlos Jr on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
— Main Card —
6. Aaron Jeffrey vs. Dalton Rosta
- Middleweight 185 lbs -
Prediction: Aaron Jeffrey by Split/Majority Decision
Aaron Jeffrey, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt and former Bellator regional champion, made his PFL debut with a narrow victory over Murad Ramazanov. His 16–5 pro record includes ten finishes, blending grit and skill to earn that first-round win and establish himself as a serious threat in the division.
Dalton Rosta—the undefeated "Hercules"—arrives on a mission of redemption. After a dominant second-round D’arce choke submission of former champ Sadibou Sy in his PFL debut, Rosta advanced to 11–1 overall and signaled he is a knockout or submission threat at any moment. What makes this matchup particularly dramatic is that Jeffrey handed Rosta his only career loss back in 2023. Since then, Rosta has only continued to improve—his team positioning this bout as an opportunity to rewrite that result and earn a spot in the finals .
Combined, they have a 56% win-finish-rate. And, they are both riding two-fight winning streaks. Considering how evenly matched they are, a decision seems likely.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds as a parlay piece, the fight goes to split/majority decision as an individual wager and Jeffrey on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
7. Sergio Pettis vs. Raufeon Stots
- Bantamweight 135 lbs -
Prediction: Raufeon Stots by Decision
Sergio Pettis, a former Bellator 135‑lb champion with a 23‑7 record, arrives after back-to-back losses: first relinquishing his title to Patchy Mix in November 2023, then dropping a unanimous decision to Kyoji Horiguchi in June 2024. Despite the slump, “The Phenom” remains a sharp, technical striker with a deep combat pedigree and world-class footwork. Stots (21‑2), a two-time NCAA Division II wrestling champion and Brown Belt in BJJ, is riding a two-fight win streak—including a solid PFL debut where he submitted Marcos Breno via rear-naked choke—fueling momentum and confidence.
The narrative here extends beyond records—it’s about familiarity and style contrast. Teammates and training partners in the past, Pettis and Raufeon Stots know each other's tendencies inside and out. Pettis excels in range control, sharp striking, and movement, aiming to keep the fight on the feet and avoid the firefight that plays into Stots’ strengths. Stots, leaning on his elite wrestling base, will target takedowns, heavy top pressure, and grappling transitions to neutralize Pettis' striking rhythm. While Pettis has faced elite opposition and shown a killer instinct in past title defenses, this outing will put his chin and defensive wrestling to the test against a physically dominant, submission-ready opponent.
Expect a tense, strategic opening phase as Pettis probes with technical strikes and feints, while Stots works for level changes and entries. If Pettis can thwart early takedown attempts and stay mobile, he might sap Stots’ momentum and dictate the pace. This bantamweight showcase is both a redemption platform for Pettis and a defining moment for Stots as he ascends further in the PFL landscape.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes to decision as a parlay piece, the fight ends in a split/majority decision as an individual wager and Stots on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
8. Phil Davis vs. Sullivan Cauley
- Light Heavyweight 205 lbs -
Prediction: Sullivan Cauley by Decision
After a two-year hiatus, Phil Davis put on a dominant performance at PFL 4 last month. He knocked out former champion Rob Wilkinson with a picture-perfect overhand right inside the second round. It was Davis’s first finish since 2019 and a powerful reminder of his elite wrestling-meets-striking toolkit. The former NCAA champion and Bellator titleholder (now 25‑7) has never been finished in 32 professional fights and brings a resume loaded with high-caliber wins, physicality, and combat IQ.
Sullivan Cauley is a former Bellator prospect who made an impression with a blistering first-round knockout over Alex Polizzi in the quarter finals. Now 7‑1, Cauley fights with high-energy and a thirst for violence. His aggressive, fight-finisher mentality and impressive physical attributes—standing 6′3″ with a 74.5″ reach—have fast-tracked him to this pivotal moment. Davis will seek to employ his wrestling pedigree and analytical striking, using distance, takedowns, and positional control to grind Cauley down. Cauley has to be prepared to stuff takedowns for 15 minutes. Should Davis secure the clinch or takedown, his veteran savvy could transform this into a methodical, grueling battle.
With a spot in the $500,000 finals on the line, this duel isn’t just about styles—it’s a crossroads for both campaigns: Davis proving he’s still championship-caliber; Cauley aiming to announce himself as a bona fide title contender.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes to decision as a parlay piece, the fight ends in a split/majority decision as an individual wager and Cauley on the moneyline as an individual wager.
9. Josh Silveira vs. Fabian Edwards
- Middleweight 185 lbs -
Prediction: Josh Silveira by Decision
Josh Silveira defeated Mike Shipman by decision in the quarterfinals, demonstrating a solid wrestling foundation and control in key positions across three rounds. Silveira’s 14‑4 pro record speaks to his consistency, with six knockouts and six submissions balancing his game. His grappling-first approach and methodical pace make him a tough matchup for anyone without strong takedown defense or scramble ability. On the flipside, his striking is a work in progress which makes him one-dimensional at times. Even more concerning, Silveira’s endurance has looked questionable in later rounds.
Fabian Edwards, brother of the UFC’s Leon Edwards, exploded into the PFL spotlight with a second-round knockout of former light heavyweight champ Impa Kasanganay earlier this year. Edwards, 14‑4 with five knockouts and three submissions, blends dynamic striking—featuring crisp elbows and a surprise flying knee. Though he finished Impa in exciting fashion, Edwards is more of a technician than a one-punch knockout type of fighter (57% win-finish-rate). In eighteen total fights, Edwards has only been stopped once (2023 vs. Johnny Eblen).
Silveira will aim to bludgeon Edwards with heavy wrestling pressure, pinning him against the cage and working for ground control or submissions mid-fight. Edwards, conversely, will look to keep the fight upright, utilize his range, land sharp counters, and disrupt takedown rhythm with knees and elbows. The outcome may hinge on who has the better gas tank.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds as a parlay piece and the fight goes to split/majority decision as an individual wager.
Spreadsheet & Film Library
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