PFL Challenger Wk #4 - Preview & "Tip Sheet"
"The Lightweights" - Friday, February 17th @ 9PM EST
Here is our full card breakdown for Week #4 of the PFL Challenger Series. The Challenger Series is PFL’s version of the UFC’s Dana White’s Contender Series. Eight lightweights will compete for a PFL contract. At the end of the night, a celebrity guest panel and the fan vote determines which fighter is awarded a contract. If the fan vote and guest panel are at odds, the tie is broken by Ray Sefo, president of the PFL.
1. Charlie Decca (-150) vs. Jose Aguayo (+135)
Lightweight - 155 lbs
Charlie Decca by decision (+200) is the prediction.
Charlie Decca has an interesting fighter resume. He fought for Jorge Masvidal’s bare-knuckle MMA league last year where he won by submission. Charlie had two days notice for that fight. Though he only has six pro fights, he also has six amateur fights. Charlie uses an orthodox stance and swings punches with reckless abandon. He has a stocky physique which usually makes him the shorter fighter. Charlie does a great job mixing in wrestling. When he is at his best, he wears his opponents down with grappling. The bare-knuckle fight included an interesting moment where he illegally landed a knee to the head of a grounded opponent. Masvidal was sitting cage side and you can see him say something to Charlie. Clearly, Masvidal was surprised by the fighters poor judgment. His opponent was clearly grounded. Charlie’s biggest weakness is his striking offense. He throws looping punches and is frequently off balance.
Jose Aguayo also has an interesting fighter resume. The first thing you notice about his resume is his fight versus Cory Sandhagen in 2018. On one hand, it’s impressive he fought a current UFC fighter. On the other hand, he got knocked out in round one. Since then, he has fought in one boxing match and several MMA fights for a small promotion in Iowa. Jose has the longer frame and throws the more technical punches. But, he doesn’t have much power behind his punches.
THE BETS: The betting spots we like the most for this fight are Decca by decision (+200), fight goes over 2.5 rounds (-170 and fight goes the distance (-140). There is also a good chance we pass on this fight all together.
2. Tony Caruso (+215) vs. Anthony Romero (-255)
Lightweight - 155 lbs
Anthony Romero by decision (+105) is the prediction. Though Romero comes into this fight off an exciting flying knee knockout, we expect this fight to hit the scorecards.
Tony Caruso has two fights in One Championship on his resume. One Championship is arguably one of the top four or five MMA promotions in the world. Caruso is a relentless wrestler with average cardio. He started off very strong in his last fight but slowed down considerably in round three. Caruso likes to scrape his opponents to the ground. He has excellent pressure and pace (when he isn’t fatigued) which frustrates his opponents. He also has satisfactory submission skills and will look for a submission when the opportunity presents itself. The big concerns we have for Caruso are his lack of activity in MMA, fatigue in the later rounds and striking technique. His last MMA fight was three years ago (2020). He did take part in a boxing match last year that he lost by decision. At times, Caruso goes forward with wild strikes that leave him off balance. For an athlete with two pro boxing matches on his resume, he doesn’t display sound boxing technique in the cage. With that said, he does throw with a lot of power and has dropped several fighters.
Romero is a Canadian kick-boxer with a well-rounded skill set. He went 9-1 as an amateur. He fought in Fury FC which is a good promotion out of Texas. His only pro defeat was to JJ Okanovich. JJ is 4-0 in Bellator and was victorious on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2019. Romero lost to JJ by split decision. This fight is an excellent barometer for evaluating Romero’s skill set. With twenty one total MMA fights between pro and amateur, he has good experience for a twenty-five year old. The one area you would like to see him improve is his finishing ability. He has six finishes in 21 MMA fights. He can be a little too patient at times. In his last fight, he dropped round one because he lacked volume and was looking for the perfect punch. He bounced back with a flying knee to KO his opponent in round two. Will he come into this fight with the idea he can do that again if he goes down a round or two? Romero has wrestling skills but he abandons them for long periods of time. His stand-up defense needs improvement. He is hitable and lacks quickness.
This might be the most closely contested fight of the card. Both fighters have plenty of experience and good skill-sets. We are leaning toward Romero because he has the better strength of schedule and superior striking. We like Caruso’s wrestling but we have concerns about his long layoff and cardio later in the fight.
THE BETS: Fight goes over 2.5 rounds (-210) and Romero by decision (+105). It is unlikely we will see a traditional KO based on their resumes. There is an outside chance that Caruso loses by TKO (+400) because he simply runs out of gas. At the current moneyline price, we can’t afford to play Romero straight up. But, we will parlay him.
3. Manoel Sousa (-350) vs. Paulo Henrique (+260)
Lightweight - 155 lbs
Manoel Sousa by decision (+350) is the prediction. Full disclosure, we haven’t evaluated Henrique on film. Absent the film, this breakdown is going to be very vanilla.
Sousa fought in CFFC leading up to this fight. CFFC is a very good North American promotion where he is 2-0. Sousa has a 100% finish rate with six knockouts and three submissions. He also finished two of his three amateur bouts. He uses a very heavy wrestling approach and likes to return fighters to the mat when they try to get up. Sousa’s traditional boxing skills are limited but he has effective dirty boxing against the fence. What he lacks in punching technique, he makes up for with serious power. Sousa has displayed very effective survival skills in prior fights. He immediately began to grapple and slow things down when he was stunned versus Mauricio Ruffy. As for our concerns with Sousa. He can be very hitable at times and is too willing to trade punches. He is also one-dimensional. Sousa needs success with his grappling to win fights. As we mentioned already, Sousa throws very wide punches that leave him off balance. Lastly, his footwork is sloppy. He has literally tripped and fallen over his own feet in prior fights.
Paulo Henrique is a big question mark for us. Based on his profile, he will have a height advantage. He fought in SFT which is a good promotion in Brazil. Henrique has 19 total MMA fights between amateur and professional. Though Henrique fought in SFT which is a good promotion, we don’t recognize any of the fighters he faced. Without being able to conduct film study on Henrique, we really can’t properly evaluate him.
THE BETS: Over 2.5 rounds (+200) is the only spot we may consider. There is also a good chance we will pass on this fight all together.
4. Damir Ferhatbegovic (-110) vs. Elvin Espinoza (-110)
Lightweight - 155 lbs
Damir Ferhatbegovic by split decision is the prediction. With a prediction like this, it is obvious that we lack confidence in either fighter. Our initial analysis led us to favor Espinoza because of his wrestling. After a closer look, we flipped to Damir. Here is why….
Elvin has two PFL wins under his belt. He earned a submission win in the first round of his PFL debut in 2021. His decision win last year over Jackson wasn’t as impressive. The small crowd that was in attendance were booing as the fight came to an end. It was a slow fight where Espinoza simply hung on to his opponent against the cage for three rounds. In addition to Espinoza's undefeated pro record, he went 6-2 as an amateur. He lost as an amateur to Ty-wan Claxton. Claxton is a solid fighter with a 6-3 record in Bellator. Espinoza has been a durable fighter thus far. He has never been finished (pro or amateur). He has good, not great, wrestling. The best part of Espinoza’s wrestling is that he doesn’t give up on it. He will work for three rounds to get a single takedown. In the process, Espinoza wears out his opponents. Espinoza’s record reveals a high finish rate. But, we have doubts Espinoza’s finishing ability will transfer to the PFL. He needs to execute a grappling game plan to win this fight. His striking is limited, he lacks power in his punches and he will have a hard time equaling the volume of Damir.
Damir enters this fight looking to win his fifth in a row (not counting the draw). He was submitted by Luis Pena and Jonathan Pearce back in 2017. Pena was cut by the UFC in 2021 for a domestic violence incident. Pearce is on a five-fight winning streak in the UFC. The only downside of those two defeats is that Damir was submitted in both of them. Submission defense is obviously an area that Damir needs to work on. Meanwhile, Espinoza has six submission wins between his pro and amateur record. And, almost half of his wins as a pro are by submission (3 out of 7). Damir will need to be mindful of Espinoza trying to take his back. Damir is the superior striker. He has an effective lower leg kick that could help keep Espinoza off balance. While the fight is upright, Damir should have a distinct advantage. Can Damir keep the fight standing? Can he keep his back off the fence? If Damir can’t keep the fight at range, he will be frustrated by Espinoza’s dirty boxing and takedown attempts.
We are sticking with Damir as our pick to win the fight on the scorecards. Unfortunately for Damir, a decision win may not be enough to earn a PFL contract. The PFL knows what they have in Espinoza. Damir is the contestant they are really looking at. If Damir get’s a dominant win, he might very well earn a contract.
THE BETS: The betting spots we like the most for this fight are over 2.5 rounds (-105), Espinoza by submission (+250) and Damir by decision (+350).
Tip Sheet
The odds used in this tip sheet are representative of the market as of Tuesday, February 14th. As expected, some lines have moved considerably since then. Due to difficulty finding books that offer prop bets for PFL Challenger Series, we have not included prop bets.
Individual Moneyline Wagers
Paulo Henrique to win at +250
.50 units to win 1.25 units (LOSS)
Caruso to win at +280
.25 units to win .70 units (LOSS)
Individual Moneyline Subtotal: 0.75 units to win 1.95 units
Individual Moneyline Results: -0.75 units
Parlays
Full Card Moneyline Parlay
Romero (-365) + Decca (+105) + Ferhatbegovic (+115) + Sousa (-325) = +634 odds
.25 units to win 1.59 units (LOSS)
Reverse Full Card Parlay Moneyline Parlay
Caruso (+285) + Espinoza (-145) + Henrique (+250) + Aguayo (-135) = +4203
.15 units to win 6.31 units (LOSS)
Favorites Parlay
Romero (-365) + Sousa (-325) = -150 odds
1.5 units to win 1.00 units (WIN)
Doggy Style Parlay
Caruso (+285) + Henrique (+280) = +1363 odds
.25 units to win 3.41 units (LOSS)
Latin Connection Parlay
Aguayo (-135) + Espinoza (-145) = +194 odds
.50 units to win .97 units (LOSS)
Parlay Subtotal: 2.65 units to win 13.28 units
Parlay Subtotal Results: +0.35 units
Grand Total: 3.40 units to win 15.23 units
Final Results: -0.40 units
Full Card Video Breakdown
Audio Version (Podcast)
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Breakdown Notes on Google Drive
Follow the link below to access the raw breakdown notes for every bout on this card. You can access the shared folders on our Google Drive and even download the fighter notes as word documents. We hope you find this resource useful.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1sHsKiWfOhwcaSdTGMAcPT_-Gfjr-fWCe?usp=sharing
Excel Spreadsheet
What’s in the spreadsheet? Film links, fighter details, live underdogs and more. Click the link below to access hours of fighter research for FREE!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ajC3IgmvcH5Vzy7j80rIKK0Jgb_zZl5U/edit#gid=435583927