PFL 7 takes center stage this Friday in Nashville Tennessee. The playoff card features several of the league’s most talented heavyweights and women’s flyweight combatants. The final four fights of the night are qualifiers for the finals being held this fall. Headlining the event is a heavyweight showdown between Denis Goltsov and Timothy Johnson. The co-main event is a women’s flyweight matchup between Dakota Ditcheva and Jena Bishop. Ditcheva has quickly established herself as the favorite to win this year’s tournament.
The event airs live in its entirety on ESPN+ starting at 6:00 p.m. ET with the main card also airing live on ESPN at 9 p.m. ET.
— Prelim Card —
1. Kevin Pease vs. Nick Meck
- Welterweight 170 lbs -
Prediction: Nick Meck by Decision
Kevin Pease is a wrestler that uses punches to close distance. Once he gets opponents to the ground he does a good job of posturing up and raining down strikes. Three of his five wins are by submission so he offers a multitude of threats on the mat. The only critique we have of Pease is his strength of schedule. His last three opponents have a combined record of 7-8 with none of them having a winning record.
Nick Meck went 7-0 as an amateur before going pro in 2021. Much like Pease, Meck is a southpaw that prefers to wrestle. All of Meck’s experience has been on the regional circuit for promotions like CFFC and Apex FC. Meck has several ground-related finishes.
The wide moneyline is suspicious. Their skill level, fighting style and experience are similar. Either the bookies know something the public is not aware of or this line is a trap. This fight is destined to hit the mat at some point. The superior grappler will get their hand raised.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds as a parlay piece, the fight ends in split/majority decision as an individual wager and Meck on the moneyline as an individual wager.
2. Jaleel Willis vs. Anthony Ivy
- Welterweight 170 lbs -
Prediction: Anthony “Aquaman” Ivy by Round 2 Submission
Jaleel Willis is known for his well-rounded skill set, combining striking and grappling effectively. He’s fought in Bellator, LFA and this is his PFL debut. Unfortunately, Willis is in the midst of the worst stretch of his career. He’s dropped four of his last five and he was finished in all four of those losses. Durability and stamina are the biggest question marks with Willis. He would be wise to manage his cardio and to avoid getting clipped. Willis was TKO’d in the first round of his last two outings.
Anthony Ivy is riding a six-fight winning streak that includes four submissions and two knockouts. Most of Ivy’s wins are inside the distance. Ivy’ striking is sharp and he has shown a knack for finding the kill shot.
Willis might look to use his wrestling to neutralize Ivy's reach advantage, whereas Ivy could use his striking to keep Willis at distance. Either way, this should be a good test for both fighters.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT go the distance as a parlay piece and Ivy inside the distance as a parlay piece.
3. Sergio Cossio vs. Dedrek Sanders
- Lightweight 155 lbs -
Prediction: Sergio “Drako” Cossio by Round 2 Submission
Sergio Cossio has fought almost forty professional fights so he has a lifetime of experience. He is currently on a nine-fight winning streak that began five years ago. He’s known for his dynamic fighting style and athleticism. This will mark his second fight for the PFL. He is 2-0 between Bellator and the PFL.
Dedrek Sanders is coming off a decision loss a few months ago to Luis Pena (former UFC fighter). It was Sanders’s first defeat in almost three years. Three of Sanders’ last four wins are by knockout in the first two rounds. Clearly, he packs some heat. The biggest concern with Sanders is that he is taking a big step up in competition. Most of the opponents that Sanders has faced are nowhere near the skill level of Cossio.
At almost two to one odds, there is still value in parlaying Cossio. We’re confident he will get the job done.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT go to decision as a parlay piece, Cossio inside the distance as a parlay piece and Cossio on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
4. Cody Law vs. Zachary Hicks
- Featherweight 145 lbs -
Prediction: Cody Law by Decision
Cody Law is looking for his third in a row. He has a solid wrestling background and does an excellent job of maintaining ground control. The biggest critique of Law is his low finish rate. He’s been to four straight decisions, including a split decision he lost. Law’s inability to end fights has cost him before and it’s bound to catch up with him again.
The moneyline is justifiably in favor of Law. However, the moneyline is excessive. At the very least, Zachary Hicks will pose some challenges and he’ll have the support of the local crowd. Considering that Law has a low finish rate, Hicks has a realistic path to victory if he can keep it close. With the way judging works in MMA, anything is possible once the fight goes to the scorecards.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds as a parlay piece, Hicks by decision as an individual wager and Law by decision as a parlay piece.
5. Alexei Pergande vs. Daniel Boehle
- Featherweight 145 lbs -
Prediction: Alexei Pergande by Round 1 TKO/KO
Alexei Pergande is one of the most talented young prospects on the roster. He trains out of Kill Cliff FC and has shown a well-rounded skill set in his previous fights. He boxed as a teenager and was also a state finalist in wrestling. At only twenty-three years of age, he’s already 4-0 in the PFL. It’s only a matter of time before they move him up to the regular season roster. For now, the matchmakers continue to give him very winnable fights to build him up. Pergande is a legit prospect with a bright future.
Daniel Boehle is 4-2 and looking to bounce back after a loss in his last fight. Boehle is known for his grappling skills and will likely look to take the fight to the ground against Pergande. Taking down Pergande might be a decision Boehle regrets. Pergande is just as capable of ending the fight off his back as he is on his feet. The kid is special.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes under 2.5 rounds as a parlay piece and Pergande inside the distance as a parlay piece.
6. Tyrell Fortune vs. Sergey Bilostenniy
- Heavyweight Playoffs -
Prediction: Sergey Bilostenniy by Round 1 TKO/KO
Tyrell Fortune is known for his wrestling and ability to control the fight on the ground. He’s on a three-fight winning streak that included a round TKO win over Sergey Bilostenniy. Thing is, it was a technical knockout due to an illegal strike to the back of the head by Bilostenniy. Up till that point in the fight, Bilostenniy was having his way with Fortune.
Sergey Bilostenniy is a former kickboxer so striking comes naturally to him. Not counting the technical knockout loss he suffered to Fortune, Bilostenniy hasn’t lost a fight in more than five years. Bilostenniy sports a high finish rate while also having the cardio to win by decision. If he follows a similar game plan to their first encounter, he is going to finish Fortune early.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes under 2.5 rounds as a parlay piece, Bilostenniy inside the distance as a parlay piece and Bilostenniy on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
— Main Card —
7. Taila Santos vs. Liz Carmouche
- Flyweight Playoffs -
Prediction: Taila Santos by Decision
It pains us to pick against the legendary Liz Carmouche. The former Bellator champion has shared the cage with the best and she’s fought in just about every major promotion. Though she is approaching the final stages of her career, she is still a dangerous fighter. A win over Santos would likely match her up against Dakota Ditcheva in the finals. Carmouche is formidable on the ground but she may find herself at a disadvantage trying to grapple with Santos. Santos has a physical strength advantage and she’s almost a decade younger. The most realistic path to victory for Carmouche is to work at range and hope the referees score it for her. Considering how much of a fan-favorite she is, it’s not out of the question for her to get a slight bump from the judges. Not to mention, her name is more recognizable to average MMA fans than Taila Santos. Don’t put it past the PFL to orchestrate a way to get Carmouche into the finals to face Ditcheva.
Taila Santos has several significant advantages over Carmouche. But, she needs to push the pedal to the metal if she wants to secure victory. If Santos messes around and lets it get close, she’ll be at risk of getting robbed. Many fans felt she defeated Shevchenko but two judges felt otherwise. If Santos doesn’t win all three rounds convincingly and/or finish Carmouche, she’s at risk of getting robbed.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds as a parlay piece, the fight ends in split/majority decision as an individual wager and Santos on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
8. Oleg Popov vs. Linton Vassell
- Heavyweight Playoffs -
Prediction: Oleg Popov by Decision
Linton Vassell is a 41 year old veteran with 34 professional fights under his belt. He spent a decade with Bellator before transitioning to the PFL this season. A win puts him in the finals with a chance to end his career with a million dollar purse. Vassell won his last fight by a split decision over Valentin Moldavsky. Prior to that, he suffered a round three knockout against Denis Goltsov. Due to a mix up in the available heavyweights, Vassell backed into the playoffs. On the other hand, Oleg Popov is on a 16-fight winning streak and hasn’t lost a bout in eight years. Moreover, he’s also in his athletic prime which gives him a natural speed and endurance advantage.
With all due respect to Vassell, it’s going to require a miracle for him to get past Popov. This is Popov’s fight to lose.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds as a parlay piece and Popov on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
9. Dakota Ditcheva vs. Jena Bishop
- Flyweight 125 lbs -
Prediction: Dakota “Dangerous” Ditcheva by Round 2 TKO/KO
Dakota Ditcheva is the pride and joy of the PFL. They’ve built her up with easy opponents over the last two years. She is two wins away from reaching the ultimate prize, a flyweight championship to go with a million dollar prize. Barring an injury, Ditcheva is going to win the flyweight title this season and there is nothing Jena Bishop can do about it. Ditcheva is taller, longer and much younger. Additionally, Ditcheva has the grappling chops to roll with Bishop.
If you want to take a flier on Bishop, by submission is the way to go. Three of Bishop’s last four wins are by submission. Even if Bishop wins every round, the judges will score it for Ditcheva.
Regardless of who gets their hand raised, we’re expecting this to end inside the distance. Either Ditcheva will either chew her up with lethal striking or Bishop will scoop up another submission. Dakota at approximately -400 odds is a rare site. It’s a great opportunity to put her into a parlay.
Betting Strategy: Jena Bishop by submission as an individual wager and Ditcheva on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
10. Denis Goltsov vs. Tim Johnson
- Heavyweight Playoff -
Prediction: Denis “The Russian Bogatyr” Goltsov by Round 2 TKO/KO
Denis Goltsov is one of the most experienced fighters in the tournament with a 34-8 record. He won his last two fights by ground and pound and his last five wins were all inside the distance. Goltsov came up short last year in the finals when he was knocked out in the second round by Renan Ferreira. Fortunately for him, Tim Johnson doesn’t pose nearly as much of a threat as Ferreira. Durability is the biggest red flag with Goltsov. He’s been finished in seven of his eight losses.
Tim Johnson is a journeyman that joined the season late. He secured a spot in the playoffs with a first-round TKO over Danilo Marques in his only fight of the season. Johnson has fought some decent guys like Fedor Emelianenko, Valentin Moldavsky and Linton Vassell. His most notable wins are over Marcin Tybura, Shamil Abdurakhimov, Tyrell Fortune and Marcelo Golm.
The fight is expected to be a clash of styles, with Goltsov's technical skills against Johnson's raw power. The winner advances to the heavyweight championship, where they will face the winner of the other semifinal between Popov and Vassell.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT go the distance as a parlay piece and Goltsov inside the distance as a parlay piece.
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