LFA 175: Lopes vs. Brigagão
Preview & Predictions
LFA 175 is taking place in Brazil this Saturday. The main event features a light heavyweight title fight between two former Dana White’s Contender Series contestants. With no UFC this weekend, LFA might be the perfect substitute for some hardcore fans. The prelims are airing on YouTube and UFC Fight Pass will broadcast the main card.
Notably, this article was published in absence of the betting lines. The sportsbooks should have lines available by Thursday. The “Tip Sheet” for this event will be distributed on Friday.
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1. Aieza Bertolso vs. Fabrizia Ketlinn
Strawweight 115 lbs
Prediction: Aieza Bertolso by Round 1 Submission
Bertolso is a young prospect with an aggressive demeanor. Both of her professional wins are by submission and she has another seven submissions as an amateur. Ketlinn is more of a kickboxer that prefers to operate on the feet. Bertolso has a higher upside and a more balanced skill set. Ketlinn lacks striking power and fights cautiously. Ketlinn frequently leans back to avoid punches. Bertolso will be the fighter moving forward. For what it’s worth, Ketlinn hasn’t fought an MMA fight since September of 2022. Unless Ketlinn can dramatically increase her output, it’s hard to imagine how she wins this fight.
Betting Strategy: Under 2.5 rounds, the fight does not go the distance and Bertolso by submission.
2. Beatriz Consuli vs. Carol Foro
Flyweight 125 lbs
Prediction: Beatriz “Bia” Consuli by Decision
Their pro records are identical but Consuli had an extensive amateur career before going pro. In total, Consuli has fought fifteen MMA fights compared to only two for Foro. According to their online profiles, Consuli will be the taller fighter. Consuli’s experience and size advantage are more than enough for us to side with her. Almost all of Consuli’s wins are by decision. Hence, we’re going with Consuli to win by decision.
Betting Strategy: Over 2.5 rounds, the fight goes the distance and Consuli by decision.
3. Reginaldo Junior vs. Gustavo Henrique
Welterweight 170 lbs
Prediction: Reginaldo “The Beast” Junior by Round 1 Submission
Henrique is a bit of an unknown with limited fight experience and a 3-2 MMA record. This will mark his first fight under the LFA banner. Our biggest concern with Henrique is that he hasn’t faced anyone of substance. The combined record of his last five opponents is 1-9. And, three of the fighters he squared off with have “ineligible records”.. Junior is a major step up in competition for Henrique.
Junior is making his return to LFA after a one-fight absence. Prior to the LFA, he fought in SFT which is a reputable Brazilian promotion. He earned finishes in six of his seven wins. Junior utilizes a wrestle-heavy game plan that typically ends with a submission. We’re going with Junior because he has more experience and he’s faced better competition.
Betting Strategy: Under 2.5 rounds, the fight does NOT go the distance and Junior as a parlay piece.
4. Gabriela Fujimoto vs. Sabrina Oliveira
Strawweight 115 lbs
Prediction: Gabriela “Gabi” Fujimoto by Round 1 Submission
Fujimoto is 3-0 with all of her wins in LFA. She finished her last opponent by armbar in round one and she TKO’ed her first opponent. Prior to going pro two years ago at eighteen years old, Fujimoto earned a submission in her only amateur bout. She likes to close the distance and secure body-locks. From there, she drags the fight to the mat. The biggest weakness for Fujimoto is her boxing.
At twenty years old, Oliveira is almost identical in age to Fujimoto. Oliveira has dropped two of her last three and is coming off a decision loss in August. To her credit, both of her recent losses were to quality prospects, Lany Silva and Alexia Thainara. Oliveira needs to keep her distance at all costs. Her most realistic path to victory is forcing Fujimoto into a stand-up battle.
It feels like the matchmakers are trying to build up Fujimoto. She’ll be live for a submission when the fight gets to the ground.
Betting Strategy: Under 2.5 rounds, the fight does NOT go the distance and Fujimoto by submission.
5. Talisson Teixeira vs. Arthur Fonseca
Heavyweight 265 lbs
Prediction: Talisson “Xicão” Teixeira by Round 1 TKO/KO
Teixeira is an undefeated prospect coming off a round one knockout a few months ago. He’s earned finishes in all four of his pro fights. At only twenty four years old, Teixeira is a baby for this weight class. According to his profile, Teixeira is listed at 6’8”! If that is the case, he should have a height and reach advantage. He’ll have his work cut out trying to keep Fonseca off his legs though. Fonseca is a grappler by nature that will look to take him down.
Fonseca hasn’t registered a win in almost two years and his last match was about a year and a half ago. We have no idea what to expect from a 2-1 journeyman that hasn’t been active. There is very little about him online. Based on his profile picture, he appears to be in his mid thirties. This might be a record-padding bout for Teixeira.
Betting Strategy: Under 1.5 rounds, the fight does NOT go the distance and Teixeira inside the distance.
6. Juan Vieira vs. Marcos Bruno
Lightweight 155 lbs
Prediction: Juan “Problema” Vieira by Round 2 TKO/KO
Bruno has been stopped twice in his last five fights, both by TKO/KO. He’s coming off back to back wins over fighters with a combined record of 4-7. Half of Bruno’s wins are over fighters with records below .500. He is a classic case of a regional fighter that struggles when he takes a step up in competition.
At only twenty years old, Vieira is ten years younger than Bruno. All six of his wins were inside the distance (five by TKO/KO and one by submission). Can Vieira extend his winning streak or will the youngster buckle under pressure? Betting on twenty year old fighters is a risky endeavor. All that said, we’re still going with Vieira to pick up the dub.
Betting Strategy: Under 1.5 rounds, the fight does NOT go the distance and Vieira by TKO/KO.
7. Nicoly Pedroza vs. Andreyna Rocha
Bantamweight 135 lbs
Prediction: Nicoly Pedroza by Round 2 TKO/KO
Pedroza is attempting to extend her perfect record along with picking up her second win in LFA. She began as a kickboxer before moving over to MMA. She is light on her feet and fights out of a southpaw stance. Three of Pedroza’s four wins were the result of first round finishes. Full disclosure, the combined records of those three opponents is 0-6. Pedroza went to decision in her last fight against a 2-1 fighter. At times in that match, she had trouble disengaging. Bottom line, Pedroza is still unproven.
Rocha is a grappler with very poor striking. While it’s standing, Rocha will be at a major disadvantage. She’ll jump at the chance to take down Pedroza. Though Rocha prefers to grapple, her submission defense is not good. We’ve watched her get submitted moments after being in top position. Rocha was submitted three times in her last five fights (all by armbar).
Rocha is having a hard time transitioning to MMA. On the other hand, Pedroza is finding her stride. This is Pedroza’s fight to lose.
Betting Strategy: Over 1.5 rounds and Pedroza as a parlay piece.
8. Miguel Porto vs. Kevin Christian
Lt. Heavyweight 205 lbs
Prediction: Miguel “Eagle” Porto by Round 1 TKO/KO
Porto is a stocky light heavyweight with good wrestling. He’s listed at 6’1” on his profile but he looks more like 5’11”. Porto has power in his hands and the ability to takedown average fighters.
We were unable to find film of Kevin Christian. It makes sense since he hasn’t fought in four and a half years. One of his recent fights was flagged because his opponents record was “ineligible”. Furthermore, his profile is missing information. Christian has an abundance of red flags.
Betting Strategy: Under 2.5 rounds, the fight does NOT go the distance and Porto by TKO/KO.
9. Apollo Gomes vs. Vinicius Pires
Bantamweight 135 lbs
Prediction: Apollo “Deus da Guerra” Gomes by Decision
Gomes is a young southpaw with regional experience. He typically starts off his fights at range where he can mix in kicks. Eventually, he’ll look for an opportunity to take down his opponent. Once Gomes is in top position, he does a nice job of maintaining control. One area he needs to improve is his grappling defense. Gomes often exposes his neck. It’s the reason he suffered his only loss. In that fight, Gomes shot for a double-leg takedown with two minutes left in the final round. He buried his head into the perfect position for his opponent to scoop up a guillotine. Keep in mind, Gomes was clearly ahead and didn’t need that takedown. It was a classic mistake made by a young fighter. At the time of this fight, Gomes was twenty one years old. Hopefully he has made the necessary improvements to avoid a similar fate this weekend.
Pires is riding a seven-fight winning streak and in search of his third consecutive win in LFA. Three of his eight wins were by submission, all rear naked chokes. Just like Gomes, Pires’s only defeat was by submission. The smoothest path to victory for Pires is to find a submission when Gomes takes the fight to the mat. Gomes has a propensity to leave his neck exposed. If he can’t secure a submission, Pires needs to keep up with the high output of Gomes. Over the course of three rounds, Gomes is going to throw a ton of strikes along with sprinkling in a takedown or two.
Betting Strategy: Over 1.5 rounds and the fight ends by submission.
10. Naizi Cantanhede vs. Lany Silva
Strawweight 115 lbs
Prediction: Naizi “Malvada” Cantanhede by Decision
Cantanhede sports a perfect record that includes multiple submissions and a win over a current UFC fighter, Rayanna Amanda. She makes up for her lack of speed with raw power and effective wrestling. On the ground, Cantanhede is a submission threat. She’ll need to cut off the cage to slow down Silva.
Silva likes to work around the outside where she can use kicks to keep her opponents at bay. She appears to lack punching power which is probably why she went to decision in her last three fights. Silva’s tall stance will make it easier for Cantanhede to take her down. Furthermore, Silva is a very low volume striker. Her low output could cause her to fall behind on the scorecards.
Betting Strategy: Over 2.5 rounds, the fight goes the distance and Cantanhede on the moneyline.
11. Fernando Laurenco vs. Rafael Pereira
Bantamweight 135 lbs
Prediction: Rafael “Mini Man” Pereira by Decision
Pereira is making his LFA debut whereas this will be Laurenco’s second LFA match. Something worth noting is that Pereira has faced an easier schedule lately. The combined records of Pereira’s last three opponents is 31-25. Two of those fighters are only one win above .500. The combined record of Laurenco’s last three opponents is 33-11.
Laurenco fights at a high pace and has no problem letting his hands go. Though we like his volume, he often finds himself off balance from missing wide punches. In the process, he’s open to counter shots. Furthermore, his guard is low which leaves his chin exposed.
So long as Pereira is a halfway decent striker, he should find plenty of opportunities to tag Laurenco. Where Pereira could get into trouble is if he allows Laurenco to drown him out with volume. Though we were initially on the side of Laurenco because of his strength of schedule, we are going with Pereira.
Betting Strategy: Over 1.5 rounds and the fight goes the distance.
12. Marco Tulio vs. Cemey dos Santos
Middleweight 185 lbs
Prediction: Marco “Matuto” Tulio by Round 2 TKO/KO
Cemey dos Santos hasn’t fought in four years! And, he’s been finished in almost half of his fights. At the very least, he’s going to be a little rusty from the long layoff. When the moneyline comes out, Santos will likely be one of the biggest underdogs on the card.
Tulio has average power and knows how to finish a fight. Up till now, he’s faced okay competition. Tulio lost his only fight by knockout back in 2018. He lacks head movement and holds his hands below his chin. A fighter with good striking could pick him apart.
This is a friendly match-up for Tulio. Barring an injury, Tulio should roll to victory.
Betting Strategy: Under 2.5 rounds, the fight does NOT go the distance and Tulio as a parlay piece.
13. Anderson Ferreira vs. Samuel Silva
Lightweight 205 lbs
Prediction: Anderson “Buzika” Ferreira by Round 1 TKO/KO
If Anderson doesn’t knock out Silva in round one then he’ll do it in round two. And, if Anderson doesn’t knock out Silva in the first two rounds then Silva will knock him out within the first two rounds. This fight will likely end by a knockout within the first two rounds.
Betting Strategy: Under 2.5 rounds, the fight does NOT go the distance and the fight ends by TKO/KO.
14. Bruno Lopes vs. Marcos Brigagão
🏆 Light Heavyweight 205 lbs
Prediction: Bruno “Brunão” Lopes by Round 1 Submission
Lopes came up short on the Dana White’s Contender Series last year. He suffered a round one TKO loss as a -600 odds favorite. It would benefit Lopes to employ a wrestling-heavy game plan. Taking down Brigagão and fishing for a submission is his safest path to victory. It’ll also reduce the chances that he gets clipped .
Brigagão lost by decision in 2019 to Jamal Pouges on Contender Series. He is 3-4 in his last seven MMA fights. He lost two fights ago to a 19-13-2 journeyman. And, Brigagão has been finished in three of his six losses. Four of his last five matches went to decision. Nothing about Brigagão’s resume gives us confidence that he can hang with Lopes.
Betting Strategy: Under 2.5 rounds, the fight does NOT go the distance, Lopes by submission and Brigagão by TKO/KO.
Spreadsheet & Film Library
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Remember to Bet Responsibly
Rule number one, don’t invest more than 5% of your bankroll on any one card. Rule number two, find a unit size that allows you to enjoy the fights regardless of your winnings. Wagering on sporting events is inherently a risky endeavor. There are an infinite number of possibilities. Responsible betting habits allow you to have some skin in the game while effectively managing your risk.