All but one of the winners last week, Bogdan Grad, were awarded a contract. It’s the season of giving and Dana is looking to sign as many young studs as possible. This week’s lineup features the first female bout of the season and athletes representing eight nations. Tune in to ESPN this Tuesday at 8:00PM (ET) to catch all the action.
Pre-Fight Show & Watch Party
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1. Quillan Salkilld vs. Gauge Young
- Lightweight 155 lbs -
Prediction: Quillan Salkilld by Round 2 Submission
Quillan Salkilld went 8-3 as an amateur before going professional in 2021. He is a well-rounded fighter with a strong grappling game. 3 of his 6 wins are by submission. The only blemish on his resume is a submission loss in his pro debut. It makes sense for Salkilld to mix in grappling. Notably, Salkilld has a few inches of height over Young.
Gauge Young has an 8-1 record and fights out of Missouri, USA. His record indicates he's no stranger to finishing fights. 5 of his 8 wins are by TKO with 1 by submission. His lone defeat was by submission. Based strictly on the numbers, Young is the more efficient striker whereas Salkilld has the grappling advantage. Young will probably try to avoid the ground exchanges in hopes of keeping it standing.
According to the betting odds, Quillan Salkilld is favored, indicating a moderate expectation of his victory. The odds discrepancy might reflect Salkilld's recent performances or perceived skill advantage, particularly in grappling. However, Young is a live underdog. Regardless of who gets their hand raised, we don’t see this one going the distance.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT go to decision as a parlay piece, Salkilld on the moneyline as a parlay piece, Salkilld by submission as an individual wager and Young by TKO/KO as an individual wager.
2. Yuneisy Duben vs. Shannon Clark
- Flyweight 125 lbs -
Prediction: Shannon “MMA Barbie” Clark by Round 1 TKO/KO
Yuneisy Duben is a Venezuelan fighter with a 100% finish rate. She’s finished all five of her pro fights within two rounds. Prior to going pro in 2018, Duben went 2-0 as an amateur. Duben’s last four wins were by TKO/KO. The biggest indictment of Duben’s resume is her strength of schedule. Combined, all of Duben’s professional opponents have a record of 0-10-1. In other words, Duben has faced anyone of substance. Furthermore, she isn’t an active fighter. She’s fought once in the last four years.
Shannon Clark went viral because of her nasty Bulldog submission in her last outing. Her opponent was left in a pool of their own urine and unconscious. Unlike Duben, Clark has faced halfway decent competition. Clark’s last three opponents had a combined record of 9-0 before losing to her. She’s very strong in clinch scenarios and usually overpowers the opposition. We envision her having similar success against Duben.
Betting Strategy: The fight does not go to decision as a parlay piece and Clark inside the distance as a parlay piece.
3. Austin Bashi vs. Dorian Ramos
- Featherweight 145 lbs -
Prediction: Austin Bashi by Round 2 Submission
Austin Bashi comes into this fight with an undefeated record of 12-0, showcasing his status as a highly touted prospect in the featherweight division. He’s the youngest fighter on the card at only 23 years old. Bashi has been praised for his comprehensive fighting style, which includes solid striking and an evolving ground game. 7 of Bashi’s 12 wins were inside the distance. And, he won 3 of his last 4 by submission.
Dorian Ramos (aka Dorian Santos) is stepping in on about a week’s notice. He's the current UWC Mexico Featherweight Champion with three title defenses, with six of his eight wins coming by finish. This will mark Ramos’s third fight this year and his 4th fight in the last calendar year. Dana is especially fond of prospects that have a busy fight schedule. Ramos has fought for LFA, Urijah Faber’s A1 Combat and Fury FC. Those are all reputable regional promotions with solid competition.
The MMA community, as reflected on social media and the sportsbooks, are heavily on the side of Bashi. The two biggest reasons for that are his 12-0 record and Ramos stepping in on short notice. Otherwise, they are both unproven prospects with a lot of variables. Furthermore, Ramos is a gamer that’s fought decent competition and Santos is barely old enough to have a beer. An upset win for Ramos isn’t outside the realm of possibility.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT go to decision as a parlay piece, Bashi on the moneyline as a parlay piece and Dorian Ramos on the moneyline as a long shot underdog.
4. Will Currie vs. Djorden Santos
- Middleweight 185 lbs -
Prediction: Will “Drago” Currie by Round 1 Submission
Djorden Santos, with a record of 9-1, fights out of Brazil and is slightly shorter at 6'0". Santos has shown decent boxing skills with straight punches from range, but he's not known for high volume striking. His only loss came against a 17-14 journeyman. In Santos’s defense, that was more than five years ago. One concern we have with Santos is his lack of activity. This will mark his first fight in two years! Entering this show off a two-year layoff is not typically the resume of a successful contestant. It almost feels like the matchmakers are setting him up for failure because they want to sign Currie.
Will Currie established his name in Cage Warriors where he went 8-3 over the last four years. He’s known for his high-level grappling which is why 6 of his 12 wins are by submission. Curry’s recent performances have highlighted his ability to control fights when taken to the mat, making him a significant favorite in this bout. At the same time, we’ve seen Curry drop the ball as a big favorite before. He was a huge favorite when he dropped a decision last year to an older fighter. More concerning, Currie lacks composure and is often not in control of his emotions. He doesn’t listen to instruction from his corner and he frequently argues with the referee. In summary, Currie isn’t someone to be trusted from a betting perspective.
If it wasn’t for Currie’s issues, we would pick him to win without hesitation, especially against a regional fighter coming off a two-year layoff. All that said, this reeks of a “work”. The matchmakers are purposely giving Currie an inferior opponent so Currie comes out looking spectacular en route to victory. They did the same thing a few weeks ago for Cody Haddon. They knew they wanted to sign Haddon so they gave him an opponent to style out on. To take it one step farther, it appears the referee’s are tipped off to the desired outcome. If the ref knows the UFC is high on a prospect, they have their methods of both protecting that prospect and also calling a quick stoppage in favor of that prospect. Lest we remember, this is professional sports which hinges on entertainment over everything.
Betting Strategy: Currie on the moneyline as a parlay piece, Currie by submission as an individual wager and Santos by decision as a longshot prop wager.
5. Igor Cavalcanti vs. Seok Hyun Ko
- Welterweight 170 lbs -
Prediction: Igor "Jacaré" Cavalcanti by Round 1 TKO/KO
Igor Cavalcanti enters the fight with an undefeated record of 9-0, showcasing his dominance with 7 wins by knockout and 2 by submission. Cavalcanti's approach favors aggressive, forward-moving pressure, aiming to end fights quickly. If the fight goes beyond the first round, his cardio is an unknown, given his history of quick finishes. This bout will mark Cavalcanti’s first in the United States. Up till now, all of his fights have been for smaller Brazilian promotions.
Seok Hyun Ko, with a record of 10-2, brings a different flavor to the octagon. Known for his striking, Ko has a background in sambo. His only losses (2) have come against quality competition. Ko is currently riding a three-fight winning streak. This will mark his first fight of 2024. Meanwhile, Cavalcanti will be fighting for the fifth time in a little over a year. Much like Cavalcanti, Ko is making his US debut after fighting exclusively in his homeland, South Korea. Ko’s most popular path to victory and defeat is by knockout. Combined, 15 of their 21 fights have ended by knockout. Would anyone be surprised if this ends by knockout?
Cavalcanti has the edge in strength of schedule because Brazil’s regional scene offers better competition than South Korea. Cavalcanti also sports a higher finish rate (100%). All 7 of Cavalcanti’s knockouts are in round one. And, Ko has been knocked out in both of his defeats, the last occurring in just over a minute of the first round. Cavalcanti is in prime position to earn another quick knockout.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes under 1.5 rounds as a parlay piece, the fight ends by TKO/KO as an individual prop wager, Cavalcanti on the moneyline as a parlay piece and Cavalcanti by round 1 TKO/KO as an individual wager.
Spreadsheet & Film Library
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