CW 161 takes place this Saturday at 1:30PM (EST). It could be your perfect appetizer for UFC Vegas 81. It’s a good card with several exciting match-ups. Mason Jones, former UFC fighter, is in the co-main event. The card consists of eleven fights in total.
— Prelim Card —
1. Nik Bagley (-900) vs. Michael Quinn (+600)
Lightweight 155 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Nik Bagley by Round 1 Submission
Quinn is making his pro debut after going 6-7 as an amateur. Considering his inconsistent amateur record and lack of pro experience, it’s difficult to side with him in this matchup.
Bagley is 2-1 in Cage Warriors and has at least established that he can win fights as a pro. When the lines come out we expect Bagley to be a large favorite.
BETTING STRATEGY: Under 1.5 rounds, the fight does NOT go the distance and Bagley by submission.
2. Solomon Simon (-130) vs. Marko Sarasjarvi (+110)
Featherweight 145 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Solomon Simon by Round 2 KO
This is a coin flip. They are both undefeated with finishes in almost all of their fights. The violence props are the safest betting spots.
BETTING STRATEGY: Under 1.5 rounds, the fight does NOT go the distance and Simon by KO.
3. Sean Clancy Jr. (-500) vs. Milton Cabral (+425)
Welterweight 170 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Sean Clancy Jr. by Round 1 KO
Cabral is 1-2 in his last three fights and he’s been finished in two of his three defeats. At 4-3 he is barely above .500.
Clancy Jr. went 8-1 as an amateur before going pro earlier this year. He’s looking to extend his professional record to a perfect 3-0. On paper, he appears like the much better fighter with higher upside.
BETTING STRATEGY: Under 1.5 rounds, the fight does NOT go the distance and Clancy Jr. by KO.
4. Ger Harris (-120) vs. Ryan Hewitt (+100)
Flyweight 125 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Ger Harris by Round 1 Submission
This will be one-way traffic. Harris is a hot prospect from Ireland that’ll have plenty of fan support. He’s earned seven submission wins between his amateur and pro records. His Jiu Jitsu is only getting better and we expect him to finish this in the first round.
Hewitt went 2-7 as an amateur and is now 1-1 as a pro. He’s coming off a round two knockout loss at Cage Warriors 151. A win by Hewitt would be a big upset.
BETTING STRATEGY: Under 1.5 rounds, the fight does NOT go the distance and Harris by submission.
5. Taka Mhandu (-380) vs. Alexander Pirev (+300)
Bantamweight 135 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Taka Mhandu by Round 1 KO
Neither guy is very reliable as their records indicate. But, Mhandu at least enters this fight off a knockout win compared to Pirev who hasn’t had his hand raised in five years! Furthermore, the only fight Pirev had in the last five years was a round one knockout loss. To make matters worse, Pirev just turned 38 years old.
Mhandu is unpredictable and has durability issues. His last four fights did not make it to the scorecards. He’s been submitted twice and he’s knocked out two opponents. For what it’s worth, Mhandu went 6-0 as an amateur. All that said, we’re siding with Mhandu over an aging veteran who doesn’t fight very often.
BETTING STRATEGY: Under 1.5 rounds, the fight does NOT go the distance and Mhandu by KO.
6. Paddy McCorry (-198) vs. Samir Kadi (+164)
Middleweight 185 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Paddy McCorry by Round 1 Submission
Kadi hasn’t fought in a minute. Though he looks good on film and has an impressive physique, cage time is invaluable for inexperienced fighters. His two year layoff is more than enough to fade him in this spot.
McCorry is coming off a dominant round one knockout earlier this year. Prior to that, he dropped his first pro fight by decision to James Webb. Webb is a 9-5-1 veteran so it’s an understandable loss for McCorry. If anything, the Webb loss is a valuable learning experience.
BETTING STRATEGY: Under 1.5 rounds, the fight does NOT go the distance and McCorry by submission.
— Main Card —
7. Ieuan Davies (-130) vs. Leon Hill (+110)
Welterweight 170 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Leon Hill by Round 1 Submission
Hill is a well-rounded fighter from Ireland. All six of his wins are by finish (four knockouts, two submissions). After losing his professional debut, he’s built a six fight winning streak.
Davies is off to a great start to his young career. He’s finished all of his opponents as a professional and he went 7-1 as an amateur. Though we are picking Hill, we wouldn’t be surprised if Davies pulls it off. Regardless of who wins, this should be an excellent fight.
BETTING STRATEGY: Under 1.5 rounds, the fight does NOT go the distance and Hill by submission.
8. James Sheehan (-305) vs. Olli Santalahti (+245)
Welterweight 170 lbs
🛡 Prediction: James Sheehan by Decision
Cage Warriors typically gives the hometown fighters winnable matches. This fight is no different. Sheehan will open as a large favorite and the crowd will be hyped for his entrance. The matchmakers are handing Sheehan a win to help pad his record.
Olli is 0-1-1 in his last two fights. He won his last fight about a year and half ago. A glance at Olli’s resume reveals an inconsistent win/loss rate. In his last nine matches, five years time frame, Olli is 5-4-1. In essence, he’s barely holding his head above water against regional competition.
BETTING STRATEGY: Over 1.5 rounds and Sheehan to win.
9. Ryan Shelley (-265) vs. Jordy Bakkes (+215)
Featherweight 145 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Ryan Shelley by Round 2 Submission
Shelley is a homegrown Cage Warriors prospect. He fought for Cage Warriors as an amateur and he’s fought five of his seven professional bouts in Cage Warriors. The promotion is clearly invested in his success.
Bakkes is a formidable opponent and shouldn’t be overlooked by Shelley. With that said, he hasn’t fought in about a year and his last fight went to a draw. The inactivity and winless Cage Warriors record (as a pro) are red flags.
BETTING STRATEGY: The fight does NOT go the distance and Shelley by submission.
10. Mason Jones (-575) vs. Yann Liasse (+425)
Lightweight 155 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Mason Jones by Round 1 KO
Jones fought a few months ago where he won easily by round one knockout. It was his first fight back with Cage Warriors after a run in the UFC. Jones is back in Cage Warriors with the sole purpose of working his way back to the UFC. The matchmakers gave him a cupcake in his first fight back but Liasse is a little more of a challenge. Regardless, Jones should take care of business.
Liasse enters this fight off an ugly round one knockout loss to Hardwick back in April. We had the chance to see Hardwick fight in August where he lost by decision. Honestly, we weren’t very impressed with Hardwick. If Liasse is getting finished in round one by Hardwick, Jones is going to be a nightmare for him.
BETTING STRATEGY: The fight does NOT go the distance and Jones by KO.
11. Paul Hughes (-380) vs. Jan Quaeyhaegens (+300)
Lightweight 155 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Paul Hughes by Decision
The main two reasons we are edging Hughes is that he is the hometown fighter and Cage Warriors is trying to build him up. Otherwise, this is a toss up. Quaeyhaegens will have a height and reach advantage. It could become a significant factor when they are working at range. One of our biggest critiques of Hughes is his declining finish rate. Hughes has been to decision in his last five fights. In his defense, that five-fight stretch included quality competition.
Quaeyhaegens is 4-1 in Cage Warriors and currently riding a five-fight winning streak. This is a huge opportunity for him to move up the rankings and to get on the UFC’s radar. Depending on the lines, Quaeyhaegens might be an interesting underdog play.
BETTING STRATEGY: Over 1.5 rounds, the fight goes the distance and Hughes by decision.
Spreadsheet
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Video Breakdown
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Rule number one, don’t invest more than 5% of your bankroll on any one card. Rule number two, find a unit size that allows you to enjoy the fights regardless of your winnings. Wagering on sporting events is inherently a risky endeavor. There are an infinite number of possibilities. Responsible betting habits allow you to have some skin in the game while effectively managing your risk.