Bellator 300 - San Diego
Preview & Predictions
Bellator 300 takes place this Saturday at the Pechanga Arena in California. Three titles are on the line. Cris Cyborg and Liz Carmouche will attempt to defend their respective belts. Twenty-five year old Usman Nurmagomedov is looking to stay perfect as he defends his crown in the main event. In typical Bellator fashion, it’s a marathon card with more a ton of bouts.
Due to time constraints, we had to skip over a few of the prelim bouts. We apologize for the inconvenience.
The tip sheet will be sent out in a few hours. The odds published in this article are based on DraftKings.com
— Prelim Card —
1. Josh Hokit (-1000) vs. Spencer Smith (+650)
Heavyweight 265 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Josh Hokit Round 1 KO
Hokit is a former NFL player (San Francisco 49ers) looking to make his official transition to MMA. He contemplated a move to martial arts during his time in the NFL. He has no amateur experience and this is his pro debut. Because of the stench that was left by Greg Hardy, it’s hard to get behind former NFL players. A former NFL player, Austen Lane, was knocked out in just over a minute at UFC 293. Chase Sherman, former National Champion college football player was signed and released three times over the course of two years. AJ Fletcher, former college football player, was choked out two weeks ago at UFC Vegas 79. Eryk Anders won a national title in College at Alabama but he’s had a pedestrian career. For whatever reason, the transition from football to MMA is not very smooth for most guys. They haven’t all been failures though. Muhammad Usman, Dustin Jacoby and Matt Semelsberger all have football backgrounds.
Josh Hokit is the younger brother of Isaiah Hokit, current Bellator fighter. Isaiah made his Bellator debut in 2021 (also his very first MMA fight). Isaiah was a -715 odds favorite. Unfortunately, he got knocked out in the first round. Will his brother, Josh, suffer the same fate? The circumstances are eerily similar. It’s difficult to rationalize almost a four digit moneyline for someone fighting their first ever combat sports match.
Spencer Smith looked unimpressive on film. His striking is sloppy, his ground skills are raw and his cardio looks suspect. It appears Bellator is using Smith as a sacrificial lamb to get Hokit’s career off to a good start. Due to the excessive moneyline, a small play on Smith isn’t the worst idea. One of the big favorites on this card is bound to drop the ball. Considering that Hokit is making his MMA debut, would it be that surprising if he made a rookie mistake that cost him the fight? It wouldn’t be the first time.
Betting Strategy: Under 1.5 rounds and Hokit inside the distance.
2. Jena Bishop (-175) vs. Llara Joanne (+145)
Flyweight 125 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Jena Bishop by Round 2 Submission
Bishop is an accomplished grappler that made a late transition to MMA. At thirty-seven years old, she has limited time to make a move up the rankings. The key to her success is simple, she needs to make it a wrestling match. She’s undefeated as a pro with two of her three wins by rear naked choke. Her opponent this weekend has been submitted once by armbar.
Joanne has had an up and down career. She’s 5-5 over her last ten fights and she’s been finished in almost half of her defeats. Joanne was not very impressive in her last fight against Bruna Ellen. At times, she looked severally outmatched. Though Bishop doesn’t pose a striking threat like Bruna, Bishop’s Jiu Jitsu is world class.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT go the distance, Bishop by submission (+200) and Bishop as a parlay piece.
3. Grant Neal (-270) vs. Romero Cotton (+220)
Middleweight 185 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Grant Neal by Decision
This is a low confidence selection and we wouldn’t be surprised if Cotton had his hand raised. Cotton is coming off his first professional loss and also the first time he has been finished. He is a former college wrestler so you can expect him to attempt to make it a wrestling match. At plus money, Cotton deserves consideration.
The biggest thing Neal has going for him is his strength of schedule. His wins over Christian Edwards and Albrektsson demonstrate that he can compete with average challengers in Bellator. We consider Cotton a below average challenger with a limited skill set. Neal would be wise to keep the fight standing. Wrestling with Cotton will play into Cotton’s strengths.
Neal has wins over fighters that are a level above Cotton. Neal “should” get this win with limited resistance. All that said, Neal was a -200 odds favorite when he lost to Alex Polizzi.
Betting Strategy: Over 1.5 rounds and Neal as a parlay piece.
4. Mukhamed Berkhamov (-470) vs. Herman Terrado (+360)
Catchweight 175 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Mukhamed Berkhamov by Round 2 Submission
Berkhamov is a balanced fighter with an effective submission game. He fell to Lorenz Larkin earlier this year by round one knockout. It was the first time that Berkhamov was finished as a professional. Berkhamov’s grappling is far superior to Terrado. If he takes Terrado to the ground, he’ll have his way.
Terrado has a strong physique that makes him a little stiff at times. He has a hard time defending takedowns. Terrado has a solid ground game and a handful of submissions on his resume. It’ll be interesting to see which of them gets the best of the ground exchanges.
Because they are both formidable grapplers, the fight ending by submission is on our radar.
Betting Strategy: Berkhamov as a parlay piece and the fight ends by submission.
5. D. Yagshimuradov (-245) vs. M. Rozanski (+200)
Lt. Heavyweight 205 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Maciej Rozanski by Decision
Yagshimuradov has a slight edge in strength of schedule. He’s faced the likes of Magomed Ankalaev and Corey Anderson. He throws wide power punches that can do serious damage when they land. Yagshimuradov doesn’t throw many combinations though and his kicking attack is limited. Though his strength of schedule checks out, he tends to come up short whenever he faces a quality opponent. Durability is a serious issue for him as well. Yagshimuradov has been finished in five of his seven losses.
Mr. Rozanski enters this bout off a decision loss earlier this year. Prior to Bellator, he was fighting for smaller regional promotions. If you take a glance at his resume you’ll notice a decision loss to Jack Hermansson in 2015. Rozanski doesn’t do any one thing amazingly but he is pretty good everywhere. One of his biggest challenges is his stamina towards the end of the fight. He’s been taken down and controlled in later rounds.
Both of them have suspect cardio. The winner is likely the one who simply has put in the training time to perform down the stretch. Because we could see some ground fighting, the fight ending by submission is also a possibility.
As most fans already know, there is a Russian tax on any fighter with a last name ending in “OV”. In this case, the tax is nearly criminal. If our analysis proves correct, this fight will look a lot more like a pick’em with both fighters battling fatigue in the final stages. In that scenario, we would want no parts of having a betting slip with Yagshimuradov at -245 odds.
Betting Strategy: Over 1.5 rounds.
6. Davion Franklin (+124) vs. Slim Trabelsi (-148)
Heavyweight 265 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Davion Franklin by Round 1 KO
Slim Trabelsi (aka Slim Trabe for the purposes of this article) comes in with an undefeated pro record. He’s earned finishes in three of his five wins. Slim Trabe likes to wrestle and will go for a takedown within the first few seconds of the opening round. Though he is a Jiu Jitsu purple belt, he hasn’t secured a submission. If Slim Trabe can secure position control, he can wear down Franklin en route to victory. Franklin won’t make it easy for him though.
Franklin is a strong heavyweight that’s capable of picking up and slamming people. His overall skill-set is pretty good and he has finishing ability. Franklin lost two fights ago to Golm as a -240 odds favorite. He dominated most of the first round. Unfortunately, he ran out of gas. If Franklin is forced to fight an extended wrestling battle, he could melt again. To his credit, he won his last fight by decision.
We want no parts of this bout from a betting perspective. There are several blind spots with Slim Trabe and Franklin’s cardio issues are terrifying.
Betting Targets: Under 2.5 rounds (-210) and the fight does not go the distance.
7. Kai Kamaka III (-192) vs. Henry Corrales (+160)
Featherweight 145 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Kai Kamaka III by Decision
Kamaka is a talented fighter that we feel never should have been cut by the UFC. He’s been on the wrong side of several close decisions. You can make the argument that he should have earned wins over TJ Brown, Danny Chavez and Justin Gonzales. All three of those fights went to either a split or a draw. He went 1-2-1 in the UFC before they let him go. He is 2-1 since signing with Bellator last year. Kamaka’s speed and athleticism will be noticeable during the striking exchanges. So long as he doesn’t make any major mistakes, this is Kamaka’s fight to lose.
Corrales is in search of his fourth win in a row. He pulled off a big upset in his last fight where he was a +400 underdog. It was a reminder that the veteran still has some fight left in him. Though we respect what he’s accomplished over his career, we feel he is outmatched by the younger and more athletic Kamaka. A large part of the reason we are fading Corrales is his age. Thirty seven is ancient for a featherweight.
Betting Strategy: Over 2.5 rounds (-270) and the fight goes the distance.
8. Jesse Roberts (-155) vs. Sergio Cossio (+130)
Lightweight 155 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Sergio Cossio by Round 1 Submission
Cossio has much more experience and he’s on a seven fight winning streak. He’s of Mexican descent which means he was born with a granite chin. One of Cossio’s biggest weaknesses is submission defense. He’s been submitted four times. On the flipside, he has seven submission wins himself.
Roberts went 3-1 as an amateur before making his pro debut in Bellator two years ago. He’s earned finishes in three of his last four bouts and he sports a perfect 6-0 record. The level of competition is our only concern about Roberts. The combined record of all six of his opponents is 14-22 (pro). He went to decision against the only two opponents who have winning records. All three of Robert’s finishes were against fighters with losing records. Until we see him secure a win over a quality opponent, we’re inclined to fade him against a veteran like Cossio.
They are both a threat to scoop up a submission. And, Cossio has been submitted several times.
Betting Strategy: The fight does NOT go the distance and the fight ends by submission.
9. Leah McCourt (+140) vs. Sarah McMann (-166)
Featherweight 145 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Sarah McMann by decision (+110)
McMann won a silver medal at the 2004 Olympics (wrestling). She formerly fought for Invicta and the UFC. She fought thirteen times in the UFC from 2013-2022. And, she was the season twenty winner of the Ultimate Fighter. As you can imagine, McMann employs a wrestle-heavy strategy. She requires long periods of position control to win on the cards. Where she tends to struggle is when she’s forced to exchange on the feet. Secondly, McMann has a reputation of gassing out in the second half of fights.
Leah McCourt is a Cage Warriors product that broke into Bellator in 2019. She began her Bellator run with five straight wins. But, she’s 1-2 in her last three fights. In her defense, her last two defeats were against quality competition (Kavanaugh and Zingano). McCourt lacks finishing ability. She’s been to four straight decisions and all of her finishes are over low level competition. McCourt is a balanced fighter with effective Jiu Jitsu.
We can envision McMann dominating McCourt on the ground. We can also see a scenario where McCourt outperforms the aging McMann.
Betting Strategy: Over 1.5 rounds (-450) and the fight goes to decision (-225).
10. Bobby Seronio III (-700) vs. Alberto Garcia (+500)
Bantamweight 135 lbs
🛡 Prediction: No Prediction
Due to time constraints, we were unable to preview this fight. Our apologies for the inconvenience.
Betting Strategy: N/A
11. Bryce Meredith (-1600) vs. Miguel Peimbert (+900)
Bantamweight 135 lbs
🛡 Prediction: No Prediction
Due to time constraints, we were unable to preview this fight. Our apologies for the inconvenience.
Betting Strategy: N/A
12. Dmytrii Hrytsenko (-155) vs. Justin Montalvo (+130)
Catchweight 160 lbs
🛡 Prediction: No Prediction
Due to time constraints, we were unable to preview this fight. Our apologies for the inconvenience.
Betting Strategy: N/A
13. Jackie Cataline (+154) vs. Lorrany Santos (-185)
Featherweight 145 lbs
🛡 Prediction: No Prediction
Due to time constraints, we were unable to preview this fight. Our apologies for the inconvenience.
Betting Strategy: N/A
— Main Card —
14. Liz Carmouche (-305) vs. Ilima Macfarlane (+245)
Flyweight 125 lbs
🛡 Prediction: Llima Macfarlane by Decision
Macfarlane is on a two fight winning streak after an awful defeat to Justine Kish last year. She barely won her last fight by split decision over a fighter with limited skills. And, Macfarlane hasn’t registered a finish in four years. If she approaches this match the way she did her last few fights, she’ll probably come up short. Macfarlane’s lack of finishing ability and underwhelming recent performances make it difficult to get behind her.
Carmouche is in search of her seventh win in a row and the second defense of her flyweight strap. Her last defeat (MMA) was by decision to Valentina Shevchenko in 2019. Carmouche has two wins over Juliana Vasquez whereas Macfarlane lost to Velasquez by decision. Carmouche carved her path via Invicta FC and the UFC before becoming Bellator champion. Almost all the numbers suggest Carmouche should win. She’s the current champ, has faced better competition and she’s a much better finisher. Other than Carmouche’s age (39), there is no reason to fade her in this spot.
How and when an athlete will deteriorate is not an exact science. To make things even more interesting, these fighters are good friends and this is Macfarlane’s retirement fight. How will these extenuating factors impact the outcome of the fight? Carmouche is an MMA veteran with military experience. We are not implying she lacks the mental toughness to execute a winning game plan. Carmouche hasn’t come this far by buckling under pressure. All that said, emotions can get the best of anyone and father time is undefeated.
Macfarlane has never been finished. Carmouche has finishes in five of her last six bouts. Something has to give.
Betting Strategy: Over 2.5 rounds and Macfarlane on the moneyline.
15. Cris Cyborg (-800) vs. Cat Zingano (+550)
Featherweight 145 lbs
🛡Prediction: Cat Zingano by Decision (+1200)
It’s never easy picking against a legend like Cyborg. But, we feel this is exactly the type of scenario to fade her. She lacks the explosiveness that once distinguished her. In her prime, she overpowered opponents with athleticism and core strength. Cyborg’s last MMA bout was almost a year and a half ago. She went the distance with Arlene Blencowe. Cyborg hasn’t finished an opponent, MMA or kickboxing, in her last four bouts (two years). At 38 years of age, her best days are clearly in the rearview.
Zingano is on the wrong side of forty and doing everything possible to extend her career. She fought for Invicta FC and the UFC prior to Bellator. A win by Zingano would probably trigger an immediate rematch. But, a lopsided defeat at the hands of Cyborg may send Zingano into retirement. Contrary to popular opinion, we think Zingano has a legit shot to upset Cyborg. She’s in search of her fifth win in a row and enjoying a bit of a renaissance. If Zingano can extend the fight to the later rounds, she might find it much easier to deal with Cyborg. Cyborg’s power diminishes the longer the fight goes.
We’re taking a flier on the underdog. If Zingano pulls it off, it will be the first clear indication that Cyborg’s days are numbered. Regardless of the winner, we’re confident this will look a lot more competitive than the moneyline suggests.
Betting Strategy: Over 1.5 (-145) and Zingano by decision (+1200).
16. Usman Nurmagomedov (-2100) vs. Brent Primus (+1100)
Lightweight 155 lbs
🛡Prediction: Usman Nurmagomedov by Round 2 Submission
Usman has elite skills and he’s only twenty-five years old. The future is very bright for the undefeated champion. Many fans would love to see him move over to the UFC if/when Bellator is acquired by the PFL. Unlike his brothers from Dagestan, Usman is a balanced fighter with a variety of ways to finish a fight. He’ll give Primus fits wherever the fight takes place.
The 38 year old Primus is 2-2 in his last four bouts. He picked up a quality win over Barnaoui earlier this year. Prior to that, he was knocked out by Shabliy. We’re concerned that Primus won’t be able to hold up for five rounds with Usman. If Shabliy KO’ed him in two rounds last year, it seems likely that Usman will get to him over the course of five rounds.
Betting Strategy: Under 3.5 rounds, the fight does NOT go the distance and Usman inside the distance.
Spreadsheet
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Rule number one, don’t invest more than 5% of your bankroll on any one card. Rule number two, find a unit size that allows you to enjoy the fights regardless of your winnings. Wagering on sporting events is inherently a risky endeavor. There are an infinite number of possibilities. Responsible betting habits allow you to have some skin in the game while effectively managing your risk.