2025 PFL Semifinals - Nashville, TN
Featherweights & Welterweights
Welcome back to the MMA Fight Club newsletter. We’re glad to have you with us as we dive into another action-packed week of fight news, analysis, and behind-the-scenes stories. Whether you’re here for the latest updates or sharp betting insights, you’re in the right place. Let’s get to it.
This Thursday, June 12th, the PFL World Tournament Semifinals storm into the Nashville Municipal Auditorium, featuring high-octane, win-and-advance MMA action. The main event pits former Bellator champion Jason Jackson (19‑5) against undefeated standout Thad Jean (9‑0) in a 170‑lb showdown, while the co-main showcases a thrilling featherweight trilogy between Jesus Pinedo and Gabriel Braga. You'll also witness elite welterweight clashes—Logan Storley vs. Masayuki Kikuiri—and elite featherweight bouts like Movlid Khaybulaev vs. Taekyun Kim. With explosive prelims starting at 8:30 PM ET and the main card from 11 PM on ESPN/ESPN+.
— Prelim Card —
1. Magomed Umalatov vs. Anthony Ivy
- Welterweight 170 lbs -
Prediction: Magomed Umalatov by Decision
Anthony Ivy is stepping in on days notice against a much superior opponent. Frankly, this fight is a waste of time and shouldn’t be on the card. What is the point of a “matchmaker” if the PFL organizers are going to just pit anyone with a heartbeat against a bonafide killer like Magomed Umalatov. These kind of bouts should be flagged by the fighting commissions for “lack of competitiveness”. In short, matches like this are a bad look for any combat organization. Furthermore, it’s a wash from a betting perspective. This fight is a hard pass all around.
Betting Strategy: No wager
2. Jason Danner vs. Nathan Gilmore
- Bantamweight 135 lbs -
Prediction: Nathan Gilmore by Round 2 TKO/KO
Jason Danner enters this matchup with a perfect 2-0 professional record, looking to extend his undefeated streak. After dropping his amateur debut, Danner rattled off five straight finishes before turning pro two years ago. He brings a well-rounded skill set that makes him dangerous in all phases of the fight.
Across the cage, Nathan Gilmore thrives in stand-up battles where he can showcase his striking. While his professional record sits below .500, Gilmore is currently riding a three-fight winning streak and appears to have turned a corner. Records don’t always tell the full story—and that may explain why the line has shifted so heavily in favor of Danner, who sits around a -300 odds favorite.
That price, however, feels steep. Danner’s pro wins came against opponents with a combined record of 3-24, and his amateur competition wasn’t much stronger. Despite his clean record, he remains largely untested.
We’re taking a flyer on Gilmore to pull off the upset. He holds the edge in professional experience, has faced higher-level opposition, and Danner—while promising—has yet to beat anyone of real substance.
Betting Strategy: Gilmore on the moneyline as an individual wager and Gilmore by TKO/KO as a prop wager.
3. Alexei Pergande vs. Mike Bardsley
- Featherweight 145 lbs -
Prediction: Alexei Pergande by Round 2 Submission
Alexei Pergande returns to the SmartCage this Thursday night looking to remain unbeaten as he faces off against Mike Bardsley in a featherweight showdown at PFL Nashville. Pergande, now 5-0 as a professional, has been a steady presence in the PFL’s development pipeline. Training out of Kill Cliff FC, the 24-year-old boasts a well-rounded skill set, combining strong grappling fundamentals with crisp striking and excellent fight IQ.
Standing across from him is Mike Bardsley, a dangerous submission specialist with a 5-1 record and a finish rate of 80%. Bardsley enters the bout on a two-fight win streak and will be looking to make a statement against the undefeated prospect. However, he faces a significant size disadvantage—standing nearly five inches shorter than Pergande and giving up over seven inches in reach. Bardsley’s best path to victory likely involves closing the distance early and forcing the fight to the mat, where he can hunt for submissions.
Despite Bardsley’s momentum, oddsmakers see this as Pergande’s fight to lose, with the line hovering around -1050 odds in his favor. It’s a steep price considering Pergande hasn’t faced elite competition yet, but his technical polish and physical advantages are hard to overlook. Still, Bardsley’s finishing ability makes him a live underdog, especially if he can make it a gritty, close-quarters fight. This one should be a telling test for Pergande’s future in the PFL, and possibly a breakout moment for Bardsley if he can spring the upset.
Alexei Pergande sat down with Lynch MMA to outline how he plans to approach the bout against Mike Bardsley, and his strategy is both clear and disciplined. He emphasized the importance of controlling the fight’s range early, staying patient, and avoiding unnecessary scrambles—especially those that could lead to submission attempts. Pergande reiterated his confidence in his takedown defense and striking precision, noting that by keeping the fight upright and using his reach advantage, he can dictatе the pace and rhythm.
Betting Strategy: Alexei Pergande by submission as an individual prop wager and Bardsley on the moneyline as an individual wager. The price tag (+675 odds for Bardsley) is too tempting not to take a chance on the underdog. Anything is possible in an MMA fight.
4. Mukhamed Berkhamov vs. Kendly St. Louis
- Welterweight 170 lbs -
Prediction: Kendly St. Louis by Round 2 Submission
In a welterweight clash that could shake up the PFL standings, Mukhamed Berkhamov faces off against rising prospect Kendly St. Louis this Thursday night in Nashville. Berkhamov, a veteran of both Bellator and ACA, comes into the bout with a 17-3-1 professional record and a reputation as a suffocating grappler. The Russian-born fighter has elite wrestling credentials and a knack for grinding opponents down over the course of three rounds. After a long layoff, Berkhamov returned earlier this year where he was TKO’d in round one by Thad Jean.
Kendly St. Louis, however, isn’t showing up just to fill a slot. He is 10-4 as a professional and continues to gain momentum with each outing. Known for his explosiveness and slick submission game, St. Louis sports a 70% win-finish-rate. He’ll be giving up experience to Berkhamov, but his athleticism and aggression make him a dangerous threat—especially if he can keep the fight from stalling against the cage or on the mat.
The matchup is a classic test of veteran savvy versus rising talent. Berkhamov’s path to victory likely runs through his wrestling and positional control, while St. Louis will look to create chaos, scramble in transitions, and possibly catch a finish in a fast-paced exchange. It’s a pivotal moment for both fighters: Berkhamov is looking to reestablish himself as a top-tier contender, while St. Louis has the chance to prove he belongs among the elite.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes under 2.5 rounds as a parlay piece, Kendly St. Louis on the moneyline as an individual wager and the fight ends by submission as an individual prop wager.
5. Joseph Luciano vs. Sarek Shields
- Welterweight 170 lbs -
Prediction: Joseph Luciano by Decision
Joseph Luciano takes on Sarek Shields in a matchup between two up-and-coming finishers with very different paths to this point. Luciano (10-3) enters the bout riding a six-fight win streak, with eight of his ten professional victories coming by way of finish. The Australian-born prospect dropped his PFL debut two months ago via decision to Logan Storley. Luciano is eager to notch his first win in the promotion.
On the other side stands Sarek Shields (6-2), a gritty and durable fighter with a well-rounded game of his own. Shields has four finishes in six wins and is coming off a bounce-back victory. The American is known for his relentless pace and underrated grappling, and he may have the cardio edge in a drawn-out fight. While he lacks the polish of Luciano, Shields brings constant pressure and a fearless approach that has frustrated more technical opponents in the past.
Statistically, Luciano holds the edge in win-finish-rate (Luciano 80% vs. Shields 67%) and has been the more efficient striker, landing with higher accuracy while absorbing less damage. Shields, however, has the higher takedown defense percentage and is more likely to push the pace early.
With both fighters looking to climb the PFL ladder, this bout has all the ingredients for a show-stealer. Luciano is the favorite on paper due to his momentum and finishing instincts, but Shields is a live underdog with the kind of relentless style that can flip a fight in an instant.
Betting Strategy: Joseph Luciano on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
6. Magomed Umalatov vs. Anthony Ivy
- Welterweight 170 lbs -
Prediction: Magomed Umalatov by Round 1 Submission
In what could be one of the most one-sided matchups on this week’s PFL card in Nashville, undefeated welterweight Magomed Umalatov takes on UFC veteran Anthony Ivy in a bout with serious implications for the 2025 PFL Playoffs. Umalatov (17-1) has quietly built one of the most impressive records in the division. The Dagestani standout pairs sharp technical striking with high-level wrestling and smothering top control.
Standing across from him is Anthony Ivy (15-7), a gritty and experienced fighter who’s been tested at the highest level. Ivy had a brief stint in the UFC and owns wins across several regional promotions, but he’s struggled against elite competition and he is stepping in on late notice. Despite a recent bounce-back win to earn his spot in the PFL, Ivy enters this contest as a massive underdog—and for good reason. His path to victory is narrow: he’ll need to survive the early onslaught, create scrambles, and hope to capitalize on any mistakes from Umalatov.
This fight is likely a proving ground for Umalatov to remind fans and matchmakers that he’s not just a top prospect—he’s a legitimate title threat. With playoff positioning on the line and Umalatov continuing to climb toward elite status, this bout is expected to be a showcase. But Ivy has played spoiler before, and he'll be looking to do it again against one of the most dangerous men in the division.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes under 1.5 rounds as a parlay piece and Umalatov inside the distance as a parlay piece.
7. Adam Borics vs. Jeremy Kennedy
- Welterweight 145 lbs -
Prediction: Jeremy Kennedy by Split Decision
In a high-stakes featherweight matchup that could have title implications down the line, former Bellator title challenger Adam Borics returns to action against Canadian standout Jeremy Kennedy on this week’s PFL card in Nashville. Borics (19-3) hasn’t competed since his five-round title loss to Patricio Pitbull in 2022, but the Hungarian striker remains one of the most technically sound fighters in the division. Known for his pinpoint accuracy, dynamic movement, and dangerous knees in the clinch, Borics enters the bout with a chip on his shoulder after getting stopped in the first round of his last match (April 2025 vs. Jesus Pinedo).
Kennedy (19-6-1) is no stranger to top-tier opponents, having competed in the UFC, Brave CF, and Bellator before joining the PFL. A grinding wrestler with excellent top control and cardio, Kennedy thrives in drawn-out battles where he can wear opponents down. He’s coming off a strong performance against Pedro Carvalho and has won five of his last six fights, with his only loss in that stretch coming to the aforementioned Pitbull.
This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Borics will look to keep the fight at range, using his kicks and lateral movement to frustrate Kennedy and set up counterstrikes. Kennedy, meanwhile, will aim to close the distance, press Borics against the cage, and chain together takedowns to neutralize the Hungarian’s striking arsenal.
Statistically, the fight is tight. Borics lands more significant strikes per minute and with higher accuracy, but Kennedy holds a clear edge in takedown averages and control time. Both men have proven they can go the distance, but if Borics can stay upright, he has the tools to edge out rounds or score a late finish. If Kennedy gets the fight to the mat early and often, it could be a long night for the striker.
With both fighters looking to get back to the top of the featherweight ranks, this bout is not just about winning—it’s about making a statement.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes to decision as a parlay piece, the fight ends in a split/majority decision as an individual wager and Kennedy on the moneyline as an individual wager.
— Main Card —
8. Movlid Khaybulaev vs. Tae Kyun
- Featherweight 145 lbs -
Prediction: Tae Kyun by Decision
One of the most intriguing matchups on this week’s PFL card features a high-level featherweight clash between former PFL champion Movlid Khaybulaev and South Korean standout Tae Kyun Kim. Both men bring impressive records, unique skill sets, and playoff implications into this pivotal bout.
Khaybulaev (22-0-1) is a Dagestani grappling machine known for his dominant wrestling and methodical, low-risk striking. He boasts 14 decision wins, 6 knockouts, and 3 submissions, a testament to his ability to adapt to any opponent. Statistically, he averages 3.1 takedowns per 15 minutes with 65% takedown accuracy, and absorbs just 1.7 significant strikes per minute, showcasing his elite control and defense.
Facing him is Tae Kyun Kim (11-1), an aggressive striker with a high-output, movement-heavy style. Kim is coming off a statement win—a first-round submission in his PFL debut—and enters this matchup averaging 4.2 significant strikes per minute with 70% takedown defense. He’s shown solid footwork, quick combinations, and the ability to overwhelm opponents with volume and pace.
This is the classic clash of tempo vs. control. Khaybulaev will look to slow the fight down, initiate chain wrestling, and dominate from top position. Kim’s path to victory lies in defending the early takedowns and forcing Khaybulaev into prolonged striking exchanges—something Jeremy Kennedy nearly exploited in Khaybulaev’s narrow split decision win earlier this year. Kennedy’s game plan—volume, pressure, and takedown resistance—may provide the exact blueprint Kim needs to follow.
While Khaybulaev remains the favorite on paper, his vulnerabilities are becoming more evident against opponents who push the pace. At plus money, Kim presents a live underdog with real upset potential—and a solid value play for bettors looking to back smart aggression over conservative control.
With both men eyeing playoff positions and a potential title run, this bout carries major stakes in PFL’s stacked featherweight bracket.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds as a parlay piece, the fight goes to split/majority decision as an individual wager and Kim on the moneyline as an individual wager.
9. Logan Storley vs. Masayuki Kikuiri
- Welterweight 170 lbs -
Prediction: Masayuki Kikuiri by Decision
Upset Alert: Why Logan Storley Isn’t Worth the Price Tag?
Logan Storley enters this fight as one of the biggest favorites on the card, hovering around -800 odds. But here’s the truth—bettors should steer clear of Storley this weekend and possibly for the foreseeable future. Despite his reputation as a dominant wrestler, Storley has failed to meet expectations in recent outings. He was finished via ground-and-pound by Shamil Musaev as a -225 favorite, barely scraped by with decision wins as a -455 and -320 favorite in his last two appearances, and continues to underwhelm against increasingly tougher opposition.
Storley’s perceived dominance is built on a one-dimensional skill set. In today’s MMA landscape, being well-rounded is a necessity, not a bonus. When forced out of his comfort zone, Storley has shown little adaptability—no Plan B when his wrestling stalls. That makes him vulnerable, especially against fighters who can stuff takedowns and make him work on the feet.
Enter Masayuki Kikuiri. The Japanese prospect is 3-0 under the Bellator and PFL banners and riding a five-fight win streak, with four of those wins coming by finish. While he hasn’t faced elite names, this is the kind of fight that could launch him into the spotlight. The game plan is straightforward—keep the fight standing. Kikuiri’s striking is cleaner, more dynamic, and more likely to sway judges if he can maintain separation.
If you're looking to take a stab at a high-upside underdog, this is your moment. Kikuiri may not be the safe bet, but he’s the smart risk. Storley’s bubble is overdue to burst.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes over 1.5 rounds as a parlay piece and Kikuiri to win on the moneyline as an individual wager.
10. Gabriel Braga vs. Jesus Pinedo
- Featherweight 145 lbs -
Prediction: Jesus Pinedo by Decision
This bout marks the third clash between Jesus Pinedo, 2023 PFL Champ, and Gabriel Braga—two warriors with unfinished business. In their most recent encounter (2023), Pinedo’s relentless striking proved too much for Braga, forcing a stoppage in the third round. However, their first meeting—also in 2023—told a different story, with Braga eking out a split decision win in a fight many felt Pinedo deserved to take.
Respectfully, Braga is a point fighter who often relies on the judges to get his hand raised. He lacks true knockout power and doesn’t present much danger on the ground. In contrast, Pinedo boasts a clear edge in both experience and finishing ability, with an impressive 79% finish rate compared to Braga’s 65%.
As of now, DraftKings has Pinedo listed at -230 odds—a number that feels generous. By the time the cage door closes, don’t be surprised if he looks every bit the -500 favorite.
Betting Strategy: Pinedo to win on the moneyline as a parlay piece.
11. Jason Jackson vs. Thad Jean
- Welterweight 170 lbs -
Prediction: Jason Jackson by Decision
Jason Jackson opened as the slight betting favorite at -218, and rightfully so. With significantly more high-level experience and a proven track record, Jackson presents a tough challenge for the still-rising Thad Jean. Just two months ago, Jackson secured a second-round submission over Andrey Koreshkov—an impressive feat that marked his third finish in his last four outings. A longtime Bellator veteran, Jackson has transitioned smoothly into the PFL, where he currently holds a 2-0 record. Out of 24 professional fights, he’s only been stopped twice (both by TKO) and boasts a 53% finish rate, making him a constant threat to end things early.
That said, Jean has never been finished in his career, which suggests we could be headed for three hard-fought rounds.
We had the chance to interview Thad Jean a few years ago, back when he was just entering the PFL spotlight. From the start, it was clear the promotion had high hopes for him—possibly eyeing him as the next breakout star in the mold of Dakota Ditcheva. Jean has been at least a 2-to-1 favorite in all of his PFL matchups and has dispatched his recent opponents with relative ease.
But Jason Jackson represents a major step up. According to our metrics, Jackson holds clear advantages in experience, fight IQ, cardio, durability, and grappling. For Jean to get past him, he’ll need the performance of his career. It's also worth noting that Jackson hasn’t been officially finished in over a decade.
Jean’s undefeated record is on the line, and you have to wonder if the PFL has an incentive to keep building him up. Don’t be shocked if this one goes the distance—and potentially ends in a controversial split decision. Let’s just say, the PFL hasn’t exactly earned a spotless reputation when it comes to judging.
Betting Strategy: The fight goes to decision as a parlay piece, the fight goes to split/majority decision as an individual wager and Jean by decision as an individual wager.
Spreadsheet & Film Library
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